What to expect from the markets in May and June

And yet, historically, these cycles are often just held a two-year period, followed by a reverse movement of money and drop indexes. Nor should we discount the irrational, but often triggered a "factor of May." In the last month of spring investors are more often inclined to sales of securities, rather than to purchase. Finally, the global economic situation in the second decade of April has already presented the followers of "bullish" strategies unpleasant surprises in the form of attempts at correction in oil prices and lower investment ratings outlook for the U.S.. Perhaps the conservative bidders should wait out troubled times, staying out of the market. But players who are ready to go at an increased risk of "contrary" and "despite" the experts found a investment ideas that might work even in a troubled period. In the stock market investors will be interested in representatives of different sectors - from aerospace to media. There are also opportunities to earn money on the bonds and currency instruments. Paul Silaev, portfolio manager of IR "Kresko Finance": - Conservative investors advised to stay out of the exchange: "extraordinary uncertainty," Ben Bernanke has puzzled a few months ago, continues to dominate financial markets, and May, as a rule, do not favor buyers of securities. The remaining bidders offer to play the next investment idea. "Russian Helicopters" prepared for the IPO, during which plans to deploy up to 25% of the capital and get a $ 500 million The transaction will contribute to increasing the transparency of the holding and draw attention to its subsidiaries. Our favorite among these is the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant, which last year boosted its output by more than 25%, has the highest profitability and net cash position. In its shares attractive dividend yield of 7.7%, while they traded with the lowest multiples in comparison with other subsidiaries, "Russian Helicopters". Saved and the probability of transition of all companies on a single share in the future. In this case, the purchase of securities UUAZa may be the cheapest way to enter the capital of the holding. Their growth potential over the next two months, we estimate at 25% and the rest of the year - 100%. Another investment idea is associated with preferred securities, "Mechel", since their 70 percent discount to ordinary shares, in our opinion, is not entirely justified. Andrew Vernikov, Deputy Director General of investanaliza IC "Zerich Capital Management": - Shares of youth entertainment channel O2TV can act as a protective case, the general decline in prices. I usually cycle of global funds into our market will take approximately 2 years. This process takes place in the spring of 2009, so it is very likely that in the coming months to begin withdrawing funds. In addition, global funds are very sensitive to oil prices, and now there has been their correction. Shares O2TV able to show growth even against the general market trend. Deterrent to them stands a large debt load the company, but a high rate of earnings over time will allow it to repay all debts. By the way, holding the umbrella organization has become a break-even, but the channel still suffers losses due to high debt. But at the same time he is developing dynamically. For example, from January to March the number of subscribers in Moscow O2TV increased by 22%. An additional driver for quotations may serve as a signature of the contract with the telecom operator SAB, which would increase its subscriber base O2TV. The graph of the company was formed to support the upward trend in the region of 4,4-4,5 rate. The likely target of growth of these securities in May - June is at 5.2 rubles, but in the event of signing the agreement with NCC quotes can be achieved and a 5.7 rate. Ivan humin, head of portfolio investments of the Criminal Code "Ronin Trust": - In the bond market at a time when rising cost of resources, we believe the most attractive those bonds of high credit quality, profitability is tied to the refinancing. It's a few issues AHML, "Transneft", Railways and Moscow. In recent months, one of the priorities for the government is wrestling with accelerating inflation. April 29 board meeting will be the Bank of Russia, which is probably for this purpose it is decided to raise the refinancing rate and other interest rates. Such steps will always lead to a drop in bond value, and most of all impaired long-term government and corporate obligations. Therefore, the speculative mood of investors in the current situation it is reasonable to reduce the duration of the portfolio, especially when you consider that bond prices over the past two months have shown a large-scale growth and a period of profit taking. Proceeds from the sale of long-term securities, we believe it inappropriate to invest in second-tier issues, as the prize in their yields are too low, and liquidity is poor. At the same time probable inflow of investors in the above-mentioned liquid bonds with a coupon rate tied to the Central Bank. Catherine Kondrashov, head of analytical department of the IR "Moscow Stock Center": - It is open long positions in shares of Bank of Moscow to level of 1200 rubles. To minimize the risks necessary to put a stop order at around 940 rubles. Back in early April, Vice President Michael Kuzovlev (remember, this is representative of VTB) announced the conservation of the Bank of Moscow as a brand that is perceived quite positively. I think that the situation is under the patronage of VTB Bank of Moscow to only get better. The Bank will continue to fund projects of the capital, and may extend more credit at the federal level, which will increase revenue. Another idea related to the investment shares "BRIC." Resolution on the FAS merger with a "Silvinit" received, and the market waits for new corporate giant. Positive financial results "BRIC" by the end of 2010 added confidence to investors in its shares. The company intends to leave unchanged the price of potassium chloride for Russian farmers, and manufacturers of complex fertilizers, domestically-oriented delivery. As for exporters, for them the price increase will be 26% from July. This election policy should strengthen loyalty to the company. Quotes "BRIC" are near the bottom of the uplink. I believe that the current levels should be used for purchases to 250 rubles and a stop loss at around 210 rubles. Dmitry Shagardin, analyst, "KIT Finance": - A good investment idea is connected with the union OGK-2 and OGK-6. Both companies are controlled by power holding "Gazprom", provided a good annual report under IFRS. At WGC-2, however, revenue, EBITDA and net profit were slightly below market expectations, but at the same time, improved profitability and significantly reduced debt load. At WGC-6 observed the opposite situation: the main figures exceeded expectations against a background of moderate decline in profitability. Published reports will help the market to adequately assess the company in anticipation of their union, the parameters which have to be officially announced soon. As a result of this transaction will be energy holding company with significant potential growth due to economies of scale and synergies. From the ratio of EV / installed capacity (which is a key parameter in assessing the investment potential of the power companies), OGK-6 is the most attractive asset. It is through her actions, we recommend investors to go into unified energy holding. In May and June quotations OGK-2 can reach a level of 1.9 ruble, OGK-6 - 1.69 rubles. I should add that in the present value of Russian energy companies are already fully incorporated recent statements by political leaders about the need to limit growth rates to fight inflation in the election year. Sergey Markarian, chief investment management of the Criminal Code "Interfin Capital": - Shares are traded on the semi-CMI and lows in May - June may show anticipatory dynamics in the case of an enabling environment obscherynochnoy. Fundamentally, they have the potential to grow at 50%. CMI in the next few years should show the main indicators of growth due to such factors as the expansion of production, good price levels for domestic and foreign markets and increase the share of products with high added value. Works also improves vertical integration between departments and increase the share of raw materials derived from its own sources. In the electricity sector, experienced the criticism of heads of state, you can select paper TGC-1. The company operates in the North-West Russia and produces most of the hydro-electric power plants. In the future, it should benefit from the reform of the sector and increase profitability. From the viewpoint of fundamental analysis is the growth potential of the shares exceeds 50%. With the reduction of interest in the securities industry as a whole TGC-1 was shown in recent months, poor dynamics, and now they are particularly interesting for the purchase. Among the more liquid shares are allocated preferred shares of Sberbank. They spread to ordinary securities of the credit institution has grown to 32% above the average level of recent years. Now you can play on the likely narrowing of the spread. John G. Hardy, currency strategist at consultant Saxo Bank: - The leading world currencies will not be easy test. How the Fed will behave in pre-curtailment program of quantitative easing? Hint at a possibility of a new round? Will the country to save Europe PIGS? And do not abandon these countries on the proposed aid? There are many questions. The recent fall in volatility in the foreign exchange market to multi-year lows - most likely the calm before the storm. The euro may continue to rise in May - June, if the politicians will make desperate attempts to save the situation in the region, and the ECB - at higher rates. However, the destructive processes that are running a few years ago, will continue to evolve with new forced "saving", questioning the viability of the European project in the long run. As for the dollar, the markets are already taken into account the possibility of the third phase of quantitative easing. And why not? The new composition of Congress could limit the aspirations of Ben Bernanke, but did nothing to stop the uncontrolled printing of money and, apparently, is not going to do it. If the economy again begins to wind down, the Fed once again would start to spin the wheel a printing press. But ultimately, the government will be forced to give up money printing. We expect that by mid-May, the euro / dollar will be worth about $ 1.4, and after another two months - $ 1.25. Eugene Tarubarov, senior asset manager of IR "Aton": - We recommend that you concentrate a portfolio in highly liquid stocks, carefully treating the spotting stop-loss. The most interesting looking paper oil and gas sector, as well as the "Polyus Gold", "Severstal" MTS "BRIC", "Norilsk Nickel". Since the beginning of spring on the financial market entered a large block of negative information related to the disaster in Japan, worsening debt problems of the euro zone, the growing U.S. budget deficit and accelerating inflation. However, financial assets successfully constrain this pressure, fueled by liquidity programs to stimulate the economy. Reduction of money feeding a negative impact on sentiment, and previously ignored facts may again assert themselves. With the increasing volatility of the players have already started to decrease appetite for risk, resulting in a decrease in the share of illiquid securities in their portfolios. On the Russian stock market has developed support level near the value of 1700 points on the MICEX index of plus or minus 10 points. It is here that the best marks for purchase in the case of the following corrective movements, and also for sale if the market can not hold this plank. We believe that in future months, the MICEX index will fluctuate in the range of 1700-1830 points. Dmitry Gusev, Director of the Investment Department of the stock of the SB-bank: - The favorites can be regarded as shares of "Gazprom". Long-term attractiveness of concern provide construction "Nord Stream", stable relations with Ukraine, the prospect of building the "South Stream", as well as increasing global gas prices and rising consumption. We expect that the gas giant's shares during the correction obscherynochnoy drop to 180-190 rubles, and then become attractive to buy. There are also papers of "Surgutneftegaz", which are seriously undervalued in relation to the political component of the company and the situation around the package of the Hungarian MOL. However, the oil producing no debt, with more than $ 20 billion in accumulated funds worthy of investor attention. Recommended level for the purchase of ordinary shares of "Surgutneftegaz" - 23-24 rubles. Finally, the high price of gold form an interest in shares "Polyus Gold". But they should pay attention only when quotes drop to 1450-1500 rubles. The stock market is now very close to the local maximum and may have already reached it. Therefore, investors should be very careful. We anticipate that will start soon enough deep correction, which will last until mid-summer. Evgeny Ryabkov, an analyst "TKB Capital": - As a major investment ideas in May and June in the steel sector, we distinguish the purchase depositary receipts Evraz Group. The company is the largest producer of long products in Russia last year, its share in producing this type of steel was 30%. From December to March, prices for long products in the domestic market increased by 10% due to the seasonal intensification of the construction industry. We anticipate continued growth in prices in the near future, they need to reach a peak in May. This factor will have a positive impact on the quotes Evraz Group. Our price target at the end of the first half - $ 40 per GDR.