What to expect from the new pension reform

Like many countries, Russia was faced with an aging population, which translates into a growing pension burden on the economy. According to various estimates, no later than 2030 the number of pensioners and workers will be equal, and then first becomes larger than the latter. If in 2000 the Russians aged 65 and older accounted for 13% of the population, according to UN forecasts, by 2050 this proportion exceeds 25%. During the same period the age group from 15 to 64 will shrink from 68 to 57%. Accordingly, the source of payments to the pension system will grow scanty, but it needs to finance - to increase. By objectives. A key objective of reform carried out in 2002, was to ensure stability and balance of the pension system. The authors of the concept of the Center for Strategic Studies saw the problem in the transition from the legacy of the Soviet economy to a mixed distribution system, which would act as storage mechanisms for financing pensions. They are intended reformers, would ensure a closer link between the size of wages (and hence contributions), on the one hand, and pensions - on the other. Was declared as the purpose of increasing the actual size of payments, although the decisive steps in this direction were made only in recent years as a result of the valorization and indexation series average pension reached approximately 36% of the average wage (replacement ratio). This is already close to the minimum level recommended by the International Labour Organization (ILO) - 40%. However, pensioners are among the poorest strata of society. With built-in storage element all has gone worse than expected. He - both mandatory and voluntary - was of little interest to the vast majority of Russians who are not in a hurry to make a choice in favor of private funds or management companies for the formation of a future pension. However, here in the last two years there have been significant changes. According to the consolidated accounts of NPF for the first quarter of 2011, published by the Federal Financial Markets Service, the trust fund is 248 500 000 000 rubles of pension savings that 2.15 times more than a year earlier. At the bank, asset manager, "undecideds", while at times more - 941 100 000 000 rubles. But in general the amount of funds that are concentrated in the NPF, this year for the first time exceeded 1 trillion rubles-lei. True, the joy of the market participants a few scandals marred the savings, translated into some pension funds without the knowledge of future retirees. But the main failure of the reform in 2002 is that financial independence of the pension system was not found. Her balance was disrupted after the 2005 Government agreed to reduce the unified social tax in the hope that the losses will be offset by salary whitewash. But it was not on the scale are expected to power. Moreover, the structure of employment in recent years has changed the most unfavorable from the viewpoint of the collection of taxes as follows: the proportion of large and medium-sized enterprises was strongly reduced. Finally, new social commitments made by the Government in recent years have led to what is now subsidizing the pension system manages the budget of more than 4% of GDP - higher than in many OECD countries. The total cost of the same pension in Russia close to 10% of GDP. Very few developed countries can afford this or a higher level. Among them, such as Germany, France and Switzerland. True, the list of "rich" wormed his way into more and Greece, but, given its close to a default state, but rather an example of how not to spend money. The increase in contribution rates to social funds in January 2011 was negatively perceived by the business. If the pension system in Russia remain in its present form, the further aging of the population will impose on the economy completely unbearable burden. It is estimated the head of the Economic Expert Group Yevsey Gurvich, to keep the replacement rate at the current level, the average for 2010-2050 years, every five years will increase transfers from the federal budget by 1 percentage point of GDP annually, or raise the same amount the rate of pension contributions. A total of 40 years, financing the pension system must increase by 8 percentage points of GDP. In other words, Russia is facing a bleak dilemma: either to stifle the economy, crippling taxes, or put up with the deteriorating financial position of pensioners. However, in the Russian reality can be both simultaneously. Back to modernization. Find the optimal solution to the problem involved the Health Ministry officials and independent experts. Tatiana Golikova Office is currently preparing a strategy of the pension system before 2050. Some key points that can enter into a document, the Deputy Minister Yury Voronin has stated in an interview to "Kommersant-Online» *. Health Ministry proposes to abandon the pension formula, laid the basis for the reforms of Mikhail Zurabov. It is, according to the deputy minister, "all the more drives us to generate new obligations and should be replaced" by the individual coefficient, which existed before 2002, but in a modernized form "(see" From what parameters should depend on a pension: proposals of the Health Ministry ") . For all the dislike for Mikhail Zurabov and everything connected with it, Russian society will be difficult to accept certain ideas current leadership of the Health Ministry. Take, for example, is extremely sensitive to the theme of retirement age. One of the key proposals of the Ministry is to establish a minimum length of service. Its duration - as long as the subject of debate, but Yuri Voronin referred to the ILO convention. Under its provisions, to obtain the minimum pension must work 15 years (the current Russian legislation provides for only 5 years old), and the right to a full pension, which is associated above 40% replacement rate - 30 years. In Russia, many people retire without 30 years of experience. According to experts of the Independent Institute of Social Policy, the actual average age of retirement clearance is 54 years for males and 52.5 years for women, and early retirement on the average are assigned 48-49-year old. According to the statistics of the Min-zdravsotsrazvitiya, the "privileged" and "dosrochnikov" accounts for about one third of all new appointments, pensions and more than a third of all old-age pensioners, and this share continues to grow. Therefore, the embodiment of design departments, probably at some point will put future retirees a choice: if a person wants to retire, not earning a certain length of service, he will have to come to terms with the loss of future pension. The retirement age will be raised no formal directive, and through economic incentives. Another innovation is unlikely to please the Governing mandatory pension savings, especially private ones. Now in private pension funds, or EBV CC transferred 6% of employers pay for future retirement. Yuri Voronin proposes to add a fifth option - to the 6% at the request of the employee could go to the insurance part of pensions. It is true that the supporters of storage element more than once expressed the suspicion that in fact the idea of ​​lobbying the Deputy complete elimination of storage element and return to the distribution system. * "Kommersant-Online», 09.06.2011, kommersant.ru/doc/1656763? ThemeID = 28