Quarter invisible disappointments

The increase in social insurance contributions did not lead to unpleasant consequences for the state fiscal convinces the Health Ministry. "Operational data of three months indicate that the contributions are going quite well, - said Minister Golikova Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in early April. - Most likely, we over-fulfillment of those targets, that we set. " Who provides the extra-budgetary funds is over-fulfillment? It is obvious that the least increase the load on the payroll affect large companies with high average salaries. They saved the regressive social tax scale. Limiting annual wage, with whom the employer pays the contributions so far this year is set at 463 thousand rubles. Above this threshold, fees are not charged. "Only the sector of big business, in which the average monthly salary of most workers in more than 38.6 thousand rubles (mainly the extractive industries), did not feel increased pressure" - said a senior consultant, Department of Tax & Legal at KPMG in Russia and CIS Roman stallions. Increased pressure on wages does not interfere with industry hiring new staff. This is indicated by business surveys conducted by Economic Policy Institute named Yegor Gaidar. In January, the company had a substantial reduction, but in March, the intensity reached a maximum of hiring the last four years: a massive recruitment was not in the spring of 2007. The growth in number of employees recorded the interviews in all sectors, except for light industry, the highest rates of hire in the steel industry, Khimprom and building industry. "Small" dressed in "gray." Small and medium-sized businesses will begin to take away wages "in the shadow" - this is the business community warned at the stage of discussion of the new premium rates. Most of the respondents "F." Experts believe that these fears are justified. "By many estimates, up to 50% of small and medium-sized businesses are ready to move to" envelope "salaries or start using different schemes," optimization "premiums" - says Roman Stallion. "Small companies have cut wages, lay off employees or to hire people without employment paperwork, and sometimes simply turn off the activity, - says head of audit and legal department of" Alpha Gradient "Svetlana Tishchenko. - The "uesenschikov" and so little income, and now some of them engage in the business and was not affordable. " At Russian Business Week about the increased "mortality" said executive vice pre-zi-dent Entrepreneurs Alexander Murychev. According to him, already eight thousand small business closed as not sustained increase in social tax. The economic results of the first quarter brought a lot of disappointments, and many experts in one degree or another associate this film with the increased tax burden. Thus, fixed investment fell by 1.5% over the same period last year, real disposable income - was 2.9%. "The main factor responsible for the decline in investments, is a sharp increase in the tax burden in January, which this year alone will cost businesses in the 800-900 billion rubles, - said the chief economist," Uralsib Capital "Alex Devyatov. - In this situation the business is trying to save on costs, termination of funding which does not lead to an immediate halt of production, and this, in the first place, the investment. " Statistics knows not all. On the other hand, small and medium businesses have been hard enough on its own to spoil the government statistical data. This is for two reasons. First of all, in Russia the share of small firms in the economy is traditionally low, but it transparent for the statistical monitoring of - and even less. "Even in the case of a sharp reduction in wages and capital investments in this segment is unlikely to impact significantly on national indicators, - doubts executive director, chief economist at the bank" Opening "Vladimir Tikhomirov. - The roots of the slowdown in revenue that grew up, lie in increasing inflation, stabilize the nominal exchange rate and lower growth in wages and pensions in the public sector. " Sluggish recovery expert investment links with the continuing risk slowing global and Russian economies, slow decline, "delay" in the banking sector, a substantial amount of debt in the private sector and shifting priorities in the expenditure policy of the government to support the growth of the accumulation of reserves. Second, small and medium businesses are not too upset budgetary funds transfer to pay "in envelopes" because he used them before and are actively used. "The influence of higher tax rates on macroeconomic indicators and the care of salaries" in shadow "is minimal - many companies out there and so were they used to do business that way," - said director of accounting services, "Grant Thornton" in Russia, Sergei Kalinin. "And to not raise taxes, many companies could afford to live fully" in white ", because so far business has been recovered from the crisis is not - agrees the Managing Partner of the law office" Virtus-Lex "Julia Meshkov. - With the growing tax burden small and medium businesses will again be forced to actively use various optimization schemes. "