As lie map "VimpelCom»

The last six months were marked by incredible for the domestic telecommunications market events, and both were associated with the "VimpelCom". "Always second" suddenly for many (but not for experts) was the third in Russia, giving "MegaFon" and in terms of revenue, and the number of mobile subscribers. At the same time for the first time in the history of the de facto Russian telecommunications company gained control of a large western operators: Wind Telecom, which until recently owned by Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris (operator serves 19.3 million Italian customers, occupying 22% market share). The deal was closed in mid-April. Maximum area. It poses a security and corporate conflicts, and new high-risk assets. But "VimpelCom" was the sixth in the world table of ranks of the telecommunications industry. At the same time, Mikhail Fridman (№ 8 in the ranking of billionaires "F."), left with an effective share in Vimpelcom Ltd 10.6% of voting shares (15.2% of the share capital), and that smaller shares of the Norwegian Telenor, Naguib Sawiris and (25 and 30.6% of voting shares, respectively), managed to keep control of the company for you. And this control will not prevent any rupture of the shareholder agreement with the eternal opponent - Telenor, or forced sale of preferred shares of Altimo "VimpelCom". The last step provides the terms of association with the Wind Telecom and the decision of the London court, where the Norwegians have filed a lawsuit to protect their rights. "With high probability, Altimo, the future buyer of 6%" VimpelCom "(most likely support the" Alpha "), and Weather Investments II, which represents the interests of Naguib Sawiris, will be able to adopt all necessary decisions," - says the analyst of "VTB Capital" Victor Klimovich. The technology for preserving stocks in its sphere of influence "Alpha" has already been worked out. In 2009, the Federal Court in New York demanded that Altimo reduce the proportion of Turkcell (a Turkish telecommunications operator) to 4.99%. Then, "extra" shares for the year went to a friendly billionaire Alexander Mamut and Kazakh investment company Visor Group. "The new balance of votes in the" VimpelCom "may result in adverse decisions for minority shareholders" - predicts Victor Klimovich. First of all, for Telenor. Where are we? Leading financial analyst at UniCredit Securities Nadezhda Golubeva rated as high probability of the Norwegian capital of the merged company. "Stop the ongoing corporate conflict" Vimpelcom "to receive more than good position to further a possible merger with some the world's largest companies in the communications" - lists the positive aspects of Nadezhda Golubeva. In addition, when leaving Telenor certainly want to maximize their profits and try to find a buyer for the shares at a price 20-30% higher than the market. Selling such a large package on the open market could adversely affect the quotation of securities of the operator. Advances in M ​​& A front, accompanied by a failure on the Russian market by the end of 2010 "Megaphone" bypassed "VimpelCom" has 4.6 million subscribers. "This is largely due to company policy regarding the cost of services. Minute of "VimpelCom" cost to subscribers in 1,45-1,5 ruble compared to the 1-1.1 rubles competitors "- explains the analyst of" Veles Capital "Ilya Fedotov. To struggle with falling market shares of top management "VimpelCom" decided not to lower prices, and follow the path of the MTS - through increased investment in the construction of the network and to attract new subscribers. That's just this calculation can not be justified. Increase in capital investment is unlikely to contribute to the growth of net debt that occurred as a result of merger with Wind Telecom, - to $ 21.7 billion! This figure corresponds to the third-largest debtor Russia "F.": after "Rosneft" and "Gazprom". So the gap between competitors is likely to increase, and "Archive" for a long time was the third. The benefit of no one in the back is not breathing: the Tele2 and "Communication-Invest" cellular subscribers in less than 3 times. The only pronounced positive factor analysts expected IPO «Euroset", but now it can not take into account: the underwriters have not collected a sufficient number of people wishing to participate in the distribution rate of $ 2,7-3,3 billion for 100% of the shares. Bet on the Internet. Ironically, in "MegaFon" is not considered out for second place in Russia performing the task. However, the reasons for this lie not in the shortcomings in the work of top management of the company from St. Petersburg. The reason for that policy rather MTS. Unlike our competitors, "Megaphone" does not go far abroad. The company relies on the development in Russia and CIS countries, in particular, mobile Internet services. Hence investment on 3G, owners purchase a fiber-optic communication lines ("Synterra", "Metrocom"). Mobile data transmission has brought the company last year about 20 billion rubles, or almost 10% of revenue. The segment grew by 85% compared with 2009. According to AC & M Consulting, in 2010, "Megaphone" has got the maximum market share of mobile internet - 39% in cash. According to his own company estimates that it accounts for about 40% of the total mobile internet traffic in Russia. "This was made possible thanks to increased sales of USB-modem, and active promotion of consumption of Internet traffic and significant investment in the development of networks of 3G. In 2010, we secured access to 65% of the population to high-speed mobile networks, - says CEO "Megaphone" Sergei Soldatenkov. - In 2011 will continue the development of 3G networks and provide high speed internet access throughout the territory of Russia. " On the wave of enthusiasm, despite the general talk of convergence, the company's management is considering the selection of non-voice mobile services into a separate company. One key issue - rates are not keeping pace with traffic, network investment may negate the increase in revenue. Maximum of subscribers and services. The main principle of the MTS - as soon as possible "to build up a lot," ie, the subscriber base and revenues. The company is at maximum in comparison with competitors invest in building networks and subscriber acquisition. The result - a first in the "troika" of revenue and the worst profitability. "MTS signed an expensive contract with" Euroset "through which, according to the operator, quality subscribers come. Also played a significant role marginally increased equipment sales by 68% compared with the previous quarter. Net income suffered from high effective tax rate "- lists the causes of deterioration of financial indicators Nadezhda Golubeva. The volume of capital investments in 2011 will remain high - 22-24% of revenue, which, in turn, is expected to grow by 15% in dollars. The money will go mainly to the development of networks of 3G. "The key driver of revenue growth in 2011, MTS will transfer data and content, as well as retail, - Alexander Wright, an analyst at UBS. - The profitability of retail will grow, since the formation of its own network for the most part completed, and agency fees will be reduced. " Yet, as indicators of "VimpelCom" more balanced (return above), some analysts believe that the stock of this operator may be preferable to invest in the short term. To improve profitability, MTS paid attention to the performance of individual business lines. For example, the company decided to pay for IT «wholesale ': operator has concluded a three-year contract with Oracle to buy an unlimited number of licenses for business applications developer. Price of issue - $ 72 million Oracle has already been such a huge project with "Svyazinvest" - in 2003 bought 70 thousand state holding licenses for $ 153 million implementation has failed, and now here and work separate modules. The money was written off as a loss. Monitor the implementation and operation of Oracle business applications will be a sister company - daughter of AFK "System" "Sitronics-IT." This step is similar to the current movement of "Rostelecom", which is specifically for reducing costs discusses IT-purchasing system integrator NVision Group. Themselves have no MTS projects in foreign countries. However, AFK "System" belongs to the Indian company Sistema Shyam TeleServices (8,4 million subscribers at the end of 2010). Corporation originally chose a priority of the country with a potentially large market of cellular communication - India and China. Only the second country to go so far failed. Future competitor? The main operator of the country rushes to convergence. But first, "Rostelecom" will be universal, that is, offer range of services. Reason - to reduce costs. "Creating a converged product at the confluence of a cable internet provider with a mobile operator requires a significant investment in the development of common management systems and billing systems. The transition period is about one and a half years, the negative effects can be observed even up to three years ", - said the president" Akado "Denis Lobanov. Much is said about the awkwardness of "Rostelecom", poor quality control, depending on revenue from state regulation of tariffs. All true, but also benefits the company has mass. After the merger with interregional companies which have ceased to be subsidiaries of "Svyazinvest" and received the status of branches of "Rostelecom", the operator became the owner of the most powerful infrastructure, probably, not only in Europe but also in the world. The backbone network has grown from 160 thousand to 500 thousand kilometers, the total length of regional networks - more than 2.5 million miles. The company is counting on a huge effect. "The synergistic effect of 30 billion rubles for 4 years, 50% of which will bring revenue, 50% - saving capital costs - Alexander expects Provotorov, president of" Rostelecom ". - Because the company does not have to invest in the construction of overlapping lines. " Wireless assets are also able to provide a synergistic effect. On the credit side, "Sky Link" license for 3G, for "Skartel" (brand Yota), which in March, the "big three" and "Rostelecom" concluded an agreement on the use of the infrastructure - the network for LTE. Operators working in the MRC standards GSM 900/1800. The case for small: cellular companies also have to pass the "Rostelecom", which will be done in the next 1-2 years. "We can not engage in operational control" Sky Link ", it is expedient to give the company" Rostelecom "," - translates the opinion the Board of Directors Director General of "Svyazinvest" Vadim Semenov. The company "Mobitel", which initially was created to manage mobile assets, is a simple owner of 2.7% of ordinary shares and 28.8% preferred shares of "Rostelecom", which is not planned to sell or place. In addition, in mid-2010, "Rostelecom" won the competition for the right to use frequencies 2.3-2.4 GHz for the construction of the LTE network in 39 regions. The sense of competition veiled as a "right" - not the frequency. And they are still used by the military. "We hope common sense will prevail and the military will give us the frequency", - says Alexander Provotorov. It is true that because of the perseverance security agency "Rostelecom" has no time to start building a network within the specified period. "There is a precedent:" Total Telecom "sued for the frequency of the" VimpelCom ". As a result, no one was able in time to begin building the network, and the government moved the date. I hope that in our regulator would react if a similar way as adequately ", - said Alexander Provotorov. Already voiced accents of mobile assets: voice services for business, mobile internet for all. The department also placed emphasis. First, it is planned to increase profitability through increased revenue. Reduced costs not give the desired effect. True, the first thing that is going to do joint statement - to reduce tariffs. Second, it will be adjusted dividend policy. "The telecommunications market is actively growing, require large capital expenditures. The dividend policy will necessarily consider it ", - says Alexander Provotorov. The volume of capital investments of the combined company in 2011 is 20% of revenue. The company hopes to do on their own and lending additional issue is not planned. In addition, the profitability will be enhanced by monitoring the effectiveness of all business lines. For example, we now have combined "Rostelecom" three thousand points of sale, and not all of them can boast of high rates. Poorly closed, and the whole model of distribution channels can be reviewed. "Now we choose one of two ways: as MTS -" VimpelCom "or the" Megaphone. " Calculate the cost of re-branding, because the main cost will be used for conversion of points of sale, - says Alexander Provotorov plans. - In principle, according to independent research, the brand of "Rostelecom" more recognizable brands than the "big three". " Perhaps to outsource network management will be transferred. "Rostelecom" has experience of this cooperation and will try it on a network of ex-IRAs. The top manager believes his company can already give odds to the "red", "striped" and "green" as acquisitions. "We are successful" big three "participated in M ​​& A, for example, bought a" Teleset "less than 7 EBITDA. Paid a high price for the NTC, but it's best asset in the market, and synergy justifies the price. A "big three" gets smaller assets in the region. " Over time, plan to join the STC, but you need to buy the remaining 30% stake. Adherence to "Rostelecom", "Central Telegraph" (now owned by "Svyazinvest") will be discussed at the governmental commission this summer. With regard to access to foreign markets, specific ideas yet. And they appear not earlier than two years. "It is reasonable to pay attention to the country, where we use the channels of local operators" - indicates possible directions for M & A Alexander Provotorov.