What to expect from the commodity markets

The market continues Commodities rally that started in August 2010. World population is growing at the same time we see a fairly steady recovery of the global economy combined with a soft monetary policy, particularly in the U.S. with known consequences for the dollar. Commodities CRB index rising, energy added during the year 39%, industrial metals and grain - 13%. IMF warns of the negative effects of short-term price spikes, but in the long run they will not drag on economic growth. Oil. Turbulence in the Middle East and North Africa - the potential for oil apsayd. The oil market is now driven by the fear of supply disruption. Troubles in the Middle East is responsible for an additional $ 20 per barrel oil price, as well as it could cause a further increase in the coming months. The economic burden of the price of $ 120 per barrel increases. In 2008, the price is above $ 120 lasted 3 months, then began falling. Now it's unlikely to happen - the world economy is stronger, the United States show good growth, price range $ 100-120 seems to be quite acceptable. Fear of unrest has forced Saudi Arabia to increase budget spending, and now the country's budget is balanced at a level of $ 88 per barrel, and by 2015 - is now $ 110. These levels may be lower bar for the price. Yet the price of oil is present and speculative. Open long speculative positions in WTI are currently 300 million barrels. Each reduction of positions by speculators at 100 million barrels will give us the correction in oil prices to $ 10-15. The World in Libya will give the correction to $ 10. In general, we see a stabilization of oil in the range of $ 100-105 per barrel. Gold. Gold has always been a good protection against inflation. In 650 BC in Babylon, an ounce of gold could buy 350 loaves of bread, and of about the same today, if not more. Gold, like other precious metals, does not bring the percentage of profit. However, since real interest rates in the U.S. today are negative, then the withdrawal of gold as an asset in the anti-inflation is quite understandable. In addition, large CB used to be net sellers of gold, now they are net buyers. Demand is growing and in markets such as India and China. We expect to achieve $ 1600 per troy ounce in 2012, then the price will adjust somewhat. Silver. In the past year, silver has shown remarkable growth. If at the end of 2008, an ounce of gold was given 80 ounces of silver, today only 35! Many people believe that silver will reach $ 50 per ounce, a record price of peak early 1980s. We believe that this is possible, but the silver market, we may see inflation of the bladder. After his silver IAB will likely return in the range of $ 30-40 per ounce by the end of the year. Platinum. The platinum market, we saw a good sale in March, after the disaster in Japan. However, once the auto industry will recover, recover and demand for platinum used in automotive catalysts. And the risks remain on the supply side. 76% of world production comes from South Africa, riots, problems with electricity make these risks relevant. Copper. China, China, and China again! For two years we have seen good demand in the market, but now apsayd limited - in the first quarter of 2011, Chinese demand for copper was not very good, and the stocks they hold large. Forecast expected supply deficit in 2011, adjusted downwards. In general, copper - a very good indicator of global economic activity. But look affairs in agriculture, especially the weather - where she went, the price. Corn. Prices have reached a peak of 2008. Bullish demand is due, firstly, due to the fact that 40% of the corn harvest in the U.S. goes to ethanol, and secondly, a lot of corn goes to feed livestock, and the demand for meat, for example, in China, greatly increasing. But for maize is limited apsayd large speculative positions in Long-this crop. Wheat. It all depends on the weather. If everything is ok, it is expected that Russia will harvest 85-90 million tons. With domestic consumption of 75 million others can be exported. Some signs of a possible dry weather this season in the U.S. and China, offset by higher inventory in the U.S. and the prognosis is good (near record) crops in Australia. In general, we see in corn more potential for growth than in wheat.