A new crisis is not far off

Peace is restored, the recession has passed, but said if it's all about the health of the global economy? According to a recent IMF World Economy Outlook, April 2011, most developing countries have fully recovered from the effects of the global crisis, growth of GDP reached its pre-crisis trend, and in some cases even exceeded it. Western (in the broadest sense) have so far significantly lagged behind the crisis patted them stronger, to withdraw to pre-crisis trend can still only dream of. Economic growth in these very modest, especially given the depth of the previous recession, in 2010 it amounted to only 3% of GDP. Extrapolating these trends, the IMF believes that the world will rise in 2011 to 4.5% of global GDP, developed markets (DM) - 2.5% and emerging markets (EM) - 6.5%. But those and others - a lot of unsolved problems, just like before the well-known events of the second half of 2008, so that the value of these projections should not be overestimated. DM. In developed countries, recovery is dictated, first of all, growth in investment in industrial production due to lower levels of inventory. Recovery of production against a background of extremely low interest rates, financial conditions, and stimulating the relative health of corporate balance sheets. However, the most important element of recovery is not really - consumer demand in developed countries, virtually stagnant, and the labor market remains very weak: in the world, according to the ILO, 205 million remained unemployed - 30 million more than in the pre-crisis 2007-m and major deterioration has occurred precisely at the expense of developed countries. How can the economy grow with this set - the reluctance of people to spend and high unemployment - is unclear. In addition to the lack of desire to consume, and households make another terrible financial sin - do not want to borrow and pay to have taken! Chance to fall into another recession in developed countries more than enough. Thus, imbalances in supply and demand in real estate markets remain still. In some developed economies, housing markets are in fact dead - the volume of transactions remains extremely low. This is particularly true for peripheral eurozone economies such as Spain, where he set up real estate, based on rich British and German retirees for many years, and retired people are not coming. All is not well at home and the mortgage crisis - the U.S., there are levels in the market of "shadow" of unsold homes (shadow inventory) is extremely high. Another most significant risk at this time for recovery in developed economies are still problems in Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain - have all the boring procedure is slow catastrophe in the euro area is continuing. Talks about a possible restructuring of the Greek / Irish government debt that is heating up, then subside. In the case of Greece it all comes down to a dilemma - whether to give the neighbor - a debt addict - a new dose, then I stop this vicious practice already and stop pretending that the patient can be cured. In Ireland, Portugal and Spain, the situation is not so hopeless, both economically and in an ethical sense (in particular, this applies to Ireland, where people take on the huge debts of the private banking sector), but if the donor no longer keep Greece on a full board and it will announce the same partial default, the situation will develop in a domino effect. IMF pessimistic scenario assumes that in case of realization of these risks will be lower than the euro zone growth by 3 percentage points (Which actually would mean a new recession), and global growth will miss 1 percentage point compared to the baseline forecast. It should be remembered that the pessimistic forecasts of the IMF after the fact often proved overly optimistic. Inflation, according to the IMF, while not a significant risk to developed economies, and rising food prices and energy - a temporary phenomenon. It is interesting to note that the correction in prices across the commodities market in early May, provoked by the collapse of the bubble in silver, may serve as indirect confirmation of this thesis. Leverage (leverage) in the financial system has reached the level of spring 2008, again all on borrowed money is invested in commodity contracts. Piramidostroenie - a good thing, just as there is in that building, but the trees (and pyramids) do not grow to heaven - borrowed money must eventually be repaid. During the collapse of silver prices in early May, traders provide an additional margin requirements, simply by selling other primary assets, including oil, collapsed May 6 by 10%. The result from the collapse of one of the local market fell together all the resources complex - is not a house of cards? So the speculative overhang in commodity prices is certainly present, and the thesis of the temporary nature of high commodity prices, and not without reason. In addition, food and energy are relatively small share of the consumer basket of Western households, and therefore increase their prices in recent years is not so dangerous. At the same time, economic conditions in individual countries (Australia, Canada, Israel, Korea, Norway, Sweden) is more favorable, and there is a serious price pressure. The interest rates of central banks in these countries remain low (1-3%). Unlike the U.S., Japan (interest rates are expected unchanged) and the euro area (small increase), the monetary authorities in more dynamic economies will have to raise rates more active (0.5 to 1.5 percentage points per year) - the growth of employment TI-together with rising food and energy will lead to an increase in wages, which in turn could trigger a new inflationary cycle. Another big problem related to the high budget deficit and growing public debt. To the stage of complete debt addicts a la Greece will reach the more "healthy" economy, the recent neo-keynesian vengeance baluyuschiesya stimulants. In October 2010, the IMF predicted a reduction of the structural budget deficit of developed countries by 1% of GDP in 2011, now projected to decline only 0.25% of GDP. The reason for that above all the United States. In America in 2011 is projected to increase by 0.6% deficit of GDP instead of the expected reduction in the earlier 0.9%. First decided to reduce the dose, then thought and improved - suddenly the patient again to start breaking? Treatment again postponed until later, sometime, just not now. But to cut sooner or later will have: according to calculations, the IMF, the amount of necessary long-term fiscal consolidation should make more than 10% of GDP for the U.S. and Japan, 5-10% of GDP for France, Spain and Great Britain, 3-4% of GDP for Canada Germany and Italy. In the case of a tightening economy, some of these measures may be faced with serious problems. This applies in particular to the United States. The high level of deficit leads to a large volume of government bond allocation, which may cause an increase in interest rates on them and on corporate bonds, thus reducing the economic activity of the private sector. U.S. government bond yield growth could destabilize the global bond market with negative consequences for the global economy. EM. In most East Asian countries and Latin America, post-crisis recovery was the strongest. Economic activity is fueled by the same soft monetary policy, increasing exports, increasing domestic consumption and in some cases, capital inflows and global demand for raw materials (it is important for exporters). CIS region also demonstrates the recovery, although it is less vigorous than in other emerging markets. Pre-crisis peaks here have already been overcome - GDP growth is 2.5% above pre-crisis trend (1996-2006), with the champions of growth began to Argentina and Indonesia, this pre-crisis GDP above trend at 13 and 15%, respectively, Brazil and India - by 7%. Laggards among the emerging markets are Mexico, Turkey and, unfortunately, Russia - here the dynamics of GDP nedotyagivaet to pre-crisis trend. In most countries, except for Eastern Europe and CIS countries, unemployment is below pre-crisis levels. Inflation accelerates - it has already climbed to the level of 6% per annum, higher than the 5.5% achieved in January 2011. And in developing countries, rising prices for food and energy is much more dangerous - it can be (and in the Middle East and North Africa has already become) the reason for the discontent of the masses and the subsequent social upheaval. It is clear that the economies of some emerging markets or overheated, or close to this state - the growth is accompanied by a surge in credit growth and asset inflation. In general, it's all the same symptoms as memorable dekaplinga were observed in the first half of 2008. Of particular concern are China and Hong Kong - in these economies pumping credit took the form of this boom. And there, and there's financial authorities are trying to keep pace. It is useless - the growth of lending to the same level, which creates the potential for a sharp correction in real estate and other assets. In addition to China, the credit goes to the banquet of Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Turkey. There's lending growth - from 10 to 20% relative to last year. Over the past 5 years credit per capita in these countries has almost doubled, there are worrying signs of a credit bubble, as rising inflation and surging property prices. Global recovery - a mirage, a secured debt of the public sector and the growth of state-obligations. It's just a transfer of reckoning for the future, about which no one prefers not to think. But the future may not be so far away.