Which banks promise profits for shareholders

16 investment companies and bank analytical services given forecast changes in the value of shares traded Russian banks in 2011. Formally speaking, the Russian stock market there are two dozen stock banks. However, analysts are watching for only four of them: Sberbank, VTB Bank "Saint Petersburg" and "Revival". Shares of other credit institutions are too illiquid, and analysts simply do not pay attention to them. There are no forecasts for issuers such as Gazprombank, Khanty-Mansiysk, Tatfondbank, World Bank, "Vanguard" and Sibneftebank. About the other banks ventured to express an opinion, not all investment companies interviewed, so that "prezentativnost" our consensus forecast is not the same for different banks. All bad. Unity among the surveyed analysts do not. There is a note-optimists and pessimists is gloomy. Among the pessimists, above all, should include representatives from companies such as the "Fleming Family & Partners," "Solid", "RIKFinans" and "Ronin" - they see no prospects for investment in the banking sector in general. "We look negatively on the entire banking system as a whole, particularly on small banks," - says business development director of the Criminal Code, "Fleming Family & Partners" Michael Mills, a view shared by many of his colleagues from other companies. As explained by the head of analytical department "RIKFinans" Roman Tkachuk, in 2009-2010, the shares of banks have grown substantially since the financial authorities helped banks. But now the central bank will stand before a more serious problem - the fight against inflation, which negatively affect the quality of banks' assets and, therefore, to quote their shares. In addition, according to Michael Zavodova, the industry affects the implementation of the Basel standards. "We expect a decline and the Russian banking sector, while Russian banks may look better than the West - it provides support for partial privatization program, launched by the government," - says Roman Tkachuk. Some believe that it is not very funny situation is typical for the whole stock market as a whole. "If you assess the situation with the shares of both the asset class as a whole, we believe that in April, markets have reached a local maximum, followed by a long and fairly deep correction, which is spread over two or three quarters, - the head of investment management and analysis Support, "Solid" Michael Korolyuk. - Accordingly, we see the end of the year almost all the shares below current levels, with individual differences between the issuers will have little impact. " However, Michael Korolyuk, as well as Michael Mills, said that the banks 'size matters', and the big banks will fall less and recover more correction. Big and fast. Among the banks, whose shares are liquid, best of all in the eyes of professional investors is Sberbank. "Sberbank remains the most attractive securities in the Russian banking sector," - said Deputy Head of analytical department of LLC «Sovlink" Olga Belenkaya. "Our favorite in the sector is the Savings Bank" - echoes the analyst of "Finam" Igor Dodon. "Savings Bank - the most powerful idea in the banking sector", - said the head of analytical department of the company "Energocapital" Alexander Ignatuk. Analysts inspiration received by the bank profit: if the management of the Savings Bank expects to receive for the year 250 billion rubles, in the "Sovlink" forecast 289 billion rubles, but do not rule out that the achievable higher value - at 300 billion rubles and above. The forecast return on equity of the Savings Bank this year will be about 25% - one of the best results for Russian banks. Also in 2010, the rate of dividend payment was increased from 10 to 12% of net profit in the long term management plans to raise the bar up to 20-25% of net profit under IFRS. Among the long-expected market growth catalysts shares - issue of depositary receipts with a listing in London and Frankfurt (June - July) and the completion of the deployment of privatized state-owned shares (7.6%), now owned by CB (probably autumn). Analysts noted the growth of technological bank, dissolution of reserves on overdue loans and reduce delay. "Savings Bank has the lowest cost of raising funds in the banking sector, which puts him in an advantageous position compared to any other banks, and increases the level of fair assessment" - sings praises State Bank senior analyst "Ursa Capital" Dmitry Dorofeev. Skeptics might counter this argument: despite all this, the bank has already overvalued. According to General Director of "Ronin" Vasily Fyodorov, Sberbank looks quite expensive on the coefficients of P / B and P / E (ratio of market capitalization to book value and earnings) relative to counterparts. "It is unlikely that the shares of the Savings Bank at the end of the year will be more expensive than 120, most probably in the range 80-110 move to the end of the year" - said Fedorov. In addition, Michael Mills of the "Fleming Family & Partners' growing doubts about the attractiveness of the shares of the Savings Bank, as the market will be other interesting offers. But they remain skeptical assessment of "Minority Report" and in general the market is ready to appreciate the reform efforts of German Gref, that was not always at the time of his ministry. The consensus forecast of growth in value of the shares of the Savings Bank during the 2011-th - 19 to 23%. Unknown heroes. Speaking of the "leaders of growth", can also result in two banks, which could be called "leaders, laggards." Investors have little interest in them, illiquid stocks, most analysts do not undertake to predict their dynamics, but the few analysts who still come from, see here the brilliant prospects. One of these "unknown heroes" - "ChelindBank," one of the largest banks in the Urals. Looking closely to him, analysts say a clear undervaluation. Dmitry Dorofeev of "Ursa Capital" says the bank's profitability Chelyabinsk stable than the average. Ruslan Yunusov of the company "Olma" states that the bank is trading with coefficients in P / B = 0,6 and P / E = 7,9 with an average industry values ​​of 1.5 and 10.9, respectively. The consensus forecast of four investment companies - from 53 to 70% growth in 2011. About the future market of Moscow Industrial Bank undertook to discuss only two investment company - in the "Olme" and the BCS, but here the soul of the predicted shares specializes in lending to industrial and construction of the bank increased the cost by 1.5 times. According to Ruslan Yunusov, it is one of the most undervalued securities of the financial sector, the relevant factors it is still lower than in Chelinbanke (P / B = 0,4, P / E = 4,1), and thus at Bank of strong market position, extensive branch network and good financial performance. Forecast - from 55 to 82%! The difficult road to 15 kopecks. The most "mysterious" shares in the banking sector - VTB's securities. Here of no consensus and no speech. Some analysts with the same ease as promised to the victims of "people's IPO» increase their assets by tens of percent per year, with some other analysts threaten to fall - and also by tens of percent. Positive and negative forecasts cancel each other out - so that "on average in the hospital," although growth is obtained, but very weak. Thus, among the negative factors that reduce the value of securities, many analysts point out that, apparently, was the greatest success of VTB Group - acquisition of Bank of Moscow and TransCreditBank. "From the bank VTB is expected in the current year less strong results due to difficulties associated with the integration of the VTB Group's acquisitions", - said Deputy Head of Macroeconomic Analysis and financial markets "PSB" Oleg Steps. "In our view, the current price of the shares of VTB laid too high expected growth rates, which can not be realized. Additional uncertainty is associated with the planned future integration of the Bank of Moscow in the structure of the bank and its impact on financial results and capital adequacy, "- analyst IK" Finam "Igor Dodon. "The market is not sure that VTB will consolidate 100% of the Bank of Moscow (according to the plan in 2012) in compliance with capital adequacy", - says Olga Belenkaya of "Sovlink." According to published information, have questions about the quality of the loan portfolio of the Bank of Moscow, there may be requirements for large capitalization and dosozdaniyu reserves. It is true that recently the head of VTB Andrey Kostin assured that additional capitalization is not required, a decision will be made after verification of the Central Bank in June. Clarification of the situation is expected in early June (after the publication of financial results for the first quarter of VTB in 2011) and then in September, during the days of the investor, planned VTB. "The bank is a good strategy, good results investbankovskogo division, and conflict with the Bank of Moscow to end" - happily declares Michael Mills of the "Fleming Family & Partners." "VTB has recently demonstrated significant weakness and poor performance management - meets him Alexander Ignatyuk of" Energocapital. " - The bank's shares were pressured as the protracted processes of consolidation of TCB and the Bank of Moscow (remember the long process of absorption of PSB-VTB North-West), and corporate processes associated with the latest offering of shares (and the likely deployment in 2012). " As a risk factor judge calls the variety of anchor investors whose behavior depends on the success of the bank, in other words - an expensive cost of failure. Forecast - 2 to 6%. They fall. As for the leaders of the fall, most analysts predict unambiguously reduce the cost shares of the bank "Revival" and Rosbank. While there is nothing particularly sad with the Bank "Revival" like does not happen, but the bank's results are disappointing experts. "Market conditions continue to put pressure on bank margins, increasing the loan portfolio in a highly competitive as possible at the expense of more attractive rates - says analyst TKB-bank Maria Kalvarskaya. - High level of operating expenses of the bank is putting pressure on profit margins. The bank forecasts for 2011 look conservative, and the results of the first quarter confirmed the correctness of "modest" expectations. " "A major disappointment for the market at the beginning of the year were forecast management" Renaissance "in net income were much lower than the consensus forecast. The bank has not yet been fully overcome the crisis - profitability is the lowest among public banks, net interest margin continues to shrink "- agrees Olga Belenkaya of" Sovlink. " Analysts worried about the profitability of the bank, and management plans for the dissolution of the bank reserves of 1 billion rubles, according to some well-wishers look "overly restrained." Nevertheless, many point out that the bank's shares may be beneficial for long-term investment. But in 2011, "an ensemble of experts' forecasts fall of shares of" Renaissance "of 8-9%. The same situation with Rosbank. According to Dmitry Dorofeev of the company "Ursa Capital", the bank still showed a below-market return (ROE for 2010 - 8.5%). The main event associated with Rosbank - of course, his association with the French "Bank Societe Generale Vostok". But how to judge this event? Here again, analysts' opinions diverge. In the group "Alor" believe that the association with BSGV negative impact on the bank's shares. In "Investkafe" on the contrary, believe that the merger makes the paper more attractive Rosbank. But most still pessimistic. The consensus forecast - fall from 5 to 9% of its original value. The consensus forecast increase in the value of bank shares by the end of 2011,% to the beginning of the year n / n Bank ticker number of participants is the consensus forecast forecast - lower limit of the range forecast - the upper limit of the range 1 Savings SBER 15 19.1 22.8 VTB VTBR 2 15 1.7 5.9 3 -9.1 12 Revival VZRZ -8.0 4 Bank "Saint Petersburg» STBK 11 7.9 10.1 5 Rosbank ROSB 5 -8.8 -5.3 6 Nomos Bank NMOS 5 -0.5 4.1 7 19.4 5 Uralsib USBN 23.5 8 MDM mdmb 4 -0.2 0.9 4 9 ChelindBank chlb 52.8 70.4 10 Bank of Moscow MMBM March 10, 0 10.0 11 Zenith zent 2 3.4 6.3 12 MInB moib 2 54.9 81.9 13 Transcreditbank TCBN 1 19.0 19.0 14 Ural BRR -22.3 -14.5 ubrd 1