Who hit the jackpot in IPO-roulette

Since the end of 2009 on the open market for the first time took 18 companies representing a variety of industries - from oil and gas to pharmaceuticals. Some of them are registered in Russia, the other - overseas, but are the core business in the Russian territory. Eight issuers as the main platform for raising funds have chosen the London Stock Exchange, selling shares for a total of $ 3.9 billion in the same amount preferred RTS and MICEX, cumulatively raking in $ 1.1 billion Finally, two more of the issuer have a primary listing in Hong Kong . The total volume of transactions reached nearly $ 7.5 billion (the amount taken into account, as earned by the companies themselves, and selling shareholders). The table does not include the secondary offering. Traditionally it was believed that investments in securities, which first appeared on the exchange, investors are able to generate additional income (although the risks of this above). The logic is clear: to the extent that a wide range of market participants become more familiar with the new issuer and its shares are included in the portfolios, there is an additional demand. All other things being equal, even at the expense of this factor alone should keep the paper better than other stocks of the industry. In addition, when placing are oversubscribed, that is, customers are satisfied the application is not in full, the players are forced to buy more missing packages on the secondary market, thus unwittingly fueling the price in the first weeks after the start of exchange trading. But practice shows that these rules do not always work. To evaluate the effectiveness of investments in new public Russian companies, we compared the change in their quotations from the date of posting to date with the dynamics of the RTS Index. And it happened that the additional risks associated with the purchase of shares during the IPO, with rare exceptions, were not justified, at least for medium-and long-term investors. As the table shows, the majority of "new" shares lose general market index. Some paper and ensure at all, valued at tens of percent. Only five companies out of 18 significantly outperform the RTS index. White crows. From the list of independent oil producing highly distracting Exillon Energy - his papers a few times ahead as the general market and industry stock indices. This company is small by the standards of the industry, many analysts are profiled, as it turned out, not even watching her results and the dynamics of the shares. It is registered on the Isle of Man, is headquartered in Dubai, but it is an operating activity in Russia, having a license to produce oil in the Timan-Pechora and Western Siberia. Exillon Energy held an IPO in just a few months after the purchase of key sites in the early stages of development. That is, investors agreed to pay not only for the results, as for the future. That Exillon Energy was one of the first issuers of Russian origin, who were able to place the shares after the failure of the crisis on the market. In the first months of trading have shown relatively modest gains. For example, when six months passed the additional private placement, new securities were sold at 11% higher than during the first transaction. But from September 2010 onward began to increase, and the company since then has risen strongly. During one of the private placement, which took place last March, institutional investors bought its shares have a 2.5 times higher than during the IPO. Market participants to enjoy strong management Exillon Energy and that the company shows a consistently good drilling results, explains the analyst of "Aton" Anna Lakeychuk. If you believe the official figures, there are still significant wells drilled there was not one dry. And of oil found Exillon Energy reports regularly - recently published another such message. Mining is also growing: over the last year it was increased from 2.4 thousand to 8.1 thousand barrels per day. But despite the positive dynamics of indicators, the main potential growth of quotations, according to Anne Lakeychuk at this stage is exhausted. The new premises will, when the company will focus on enhancing oil production in the prepared holes. The second issuer, whose quotes have shown though not so giddy, but also a very significant increase since the IPO, - «Transcontainer." The offering price once looked interesting for investors, given the strong fundamentals and growth prospects of the business, says the head of analytical department of the "TKB Capital" Maria Kalvarskaya. The shares were sold to the prognostic factor of EV / EBITDA for 2011 at 6.16 against 6.2 for 'Globaltrans, "though" Transcontainer "works in a more attractive market. In addition, a group of FESCO, which bought into the process of placing the package in 12.5%, does not conceal plans for further expansion of this share. Perhaps it is the largest minority shareholder "Transcontainer" a substantial part of the demand for its shares in recent months. For 2011, planned privatization of another 25% of securities companies, and in addition to FESCO on this package can claim "Globaltrans," recalls analyst "Rye, Man & Gor Securities' Catherine Andreyanova. The competition between the bidders can further raise the price of the company, but should be wary of this speculative factor, she warns. Cheated out. Now look at the anti-hero of post-crisis Russian IPO. The worst results after the exchanges showed "Russian Sea" and "Protek". Both companies have deceived the expectations of market participants, and almost immediately after placement, says the analyst of "VTB Capital" Maria Kolbina: first - in terms of revenue growth, the second - margins of business. In its forecast, in both cases, the quotes are unlikely to grow significantly in future years. As soon as the shares sold to investors, "Russian Sea" found serious problems with the supply of trout and salmon from Norway, who instantly made a profitable company unprofitable. Salmon on the basis of 2010 rose by 20%, trout - 30%, while the selling price was increased by only 10%. Gross margin, "Russian Sea" fell by 39% against the symbolic reduction of revenue growth and business costs in half. Instead of profits 424 million rubles in 2009, which investors saw in the presentations to the IPO, recorded a loss of 836 million "Protek" also ran into difficulties soon after the close of the book claims. Already in the first half of 2010 had sharply reduced the margin in the segment of distribution, which provides the company with the lion's share of revenue. Management tried to reassure investors by promising to bring the EBITDA margin in a distribution business to at least 2.2-2.4% for the year compared to 5% in 2009. De facto, turned 1.3%. But overall the group slid to 2.7% versus 6.4% for the previous period. The biggest blow to the business, "Protek" caused the introduction of state regulation of prices for life-saving drugs and the growing influence of drug manufacturers policies. That is, in both cases the fault force majeure? On that score well spoken Steven Dashevsky, now managing partner of its own investment fund. If the management of both companies in late April 2010 when they passed accommodation, really did not know anything about the key trends of the business in the first and second quarters, it is monstrous incompetence. And if you still know? Two other places of shares, outsiders hold securities of small issuers that had an IPO on the MICEX new market - a sector innovation and investment. This is a "diode" - producer of nutritional supplements and medical devices for home use and the "Russian Navigation Technologies' (PHT) - developer of telematic systems for transport monitoring and control based on GPS and" GLONASS ". In both cases, the quotes are kept below the offering price, while the indices for the previous period have grown by tens of percent. Issuers are linked by the fact that their transaction was prepared retail brokers, and the application for purchase of shares could give even a small private investors. Analysts 'Discovery' (organizer of the transaction and co-PHT - "Diode") do not follow the dynamics of these shares, reported in the corporation. In the "Finam", which organized the IPO «Diode" and participated in a transaction RNT, say that the first issuer of the situation is more or less clear. Before the IPO «Diode" announced several major projects, but the timing of their implementation have been moved. It is hoped that this growth factor did work before the end of the year. In addition, there is pressure on the quotes, "Diode" by those minority shareholders who owned shares in the company from the time of voucher privatization, and now have the opportunity to sell them on the exchange. But the dynamics of the market's "Russian navigation technology" surprising. "The company announced excellent results for 2010, feels very good. There are all prerequisites for the growth of capitalization, but the news for some reason, not vengeance. Perhaps the effect that the issuer has not yet so well established communication with investors "- suggests the president of holding" Finam "Vladislav Kochetkov. Cancel or back down. After the crisis, the so-called "window" in the stock market opened for Russian issuers three times: in April and November 2010 and in the current April. It was during these months have passed the largest number of IPOs - not only primary but secondary. But even in relatively good times, some companies had to cancel the transaction. So, last month fell through placement of "Euroset". Canceled IPO and the small manufacturer and distributor of reagents for laboratory diagnosis of "Vital Development Corporation." The company said it was that potential buyers would like to first study reporting for the full year 2010, and in addition, their attention was drawn to a large Russian IPO. It seems that recently the April "window" for issuers now tightly shut. Just the other day from entering the stock exchange declined to holding "Russian Helicopters" due to insufficient demand for the shares, although analysts unanimously predicted the success of placement. "Helicopter" and their main shareholder - the State "Oboronprom" - planned to sell up to 30% of the market, helping approximately $ 500 million entire holding in this case would have been valued at $ 1.8-2.4 billion is curious that in anticipation of the transaction, two of investment banks - IPO organizers called the figures even higher as the fair value of the company. "VTB Capital" of its estimated $ 2.5-2.8 billion and BofA Merrill Lynch - $ 2.2-3.2 billion in the In fact, shares are not able to sell and the bottom edge of the announced price range. According to unofficial information, investors staged assessment of the holding at $ 1.5 billion, placing the end never took place. I must say that the company rejected the market often claim to postpone the deal indefinitely, rather than a complete rejection of IPO. "I am confident that upon receipt of information confirming the effectiveness of the strategy, we will be able to attract institutional buyers. It is likely that our shares will be more expensive range, voiced in the current round of communication with investors ", - commented, for example, the executive director of the" Vital Development Corporation, "Alexander Plekhov. And may these words of reverence is seen against the recalcitrant investors, evidence shows that during the second campaign on the stock exchange issuers actually placed more profitable. There is such an example in our table: "Rusagro" offered shares at $ 15, although in May of 2010, could not place them at $ 13.5. Besides the already mentioned companies early this year of the IPO at the last moment refused to "Cox», Nord Gold and Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant. Etalon Group although it had a deal, but at the bottom of the price range, and the "HMS Group" went on a significant reduction in prices and reduced the amount sold the package. Prior to the crisis in the Russian IPO is often observed the opposite pattern: the demand exceeds the limit, the book is full of applications and issuing in the transaction decides to sell the additional shares. Investors have become more picky, shrug their investment bankers. It is not excluded that this fault-finding is related to the fact that the previous Russian deals are too often disappointing buyers of shares. Demand exceeds supply. However, many business owners do not leave plans to withdraw its companies to go public. Some even actively preparing for an IPO. So, the next largest transaction promises to be the location of "Yandex" on the American NASDAQ. Now the company is holding meetings with investors, and plans to close the book orders at the end of May. Let's see if "Yandex" to repeat the achievement of another industry leader - a group of Mail.ru, an IPO in the fall. Placement of Mail.ru is an example of the transaction, successful not only for the issuer, but also for the buyers of shares - at least for those who use speculative strategies. Sale was held on the top of the price range, and the observed multiple oversubscription, which is not typical for post-crisis IPO. Already on the basis of conditional trading quotes Mail.ru soared by nearly 30%, a short-term investors could just as soon as record high profits. Skeptics, however, saw signs of inflation in the dot-com bubble in the zone of RU. The main part of the company's value has the same name on mailer. According to Bank of Moscow, IPO took place in relation to expected EBITDA EV Russian assets at 33. With such coefficients were traded only by Chinese Internet company, but in this country below the level of Internet penetration, and hence, the key players in the sector more opportunities for business growth. Whatever it was, the paper Mail.ru continue to hang above the offering price. Another IPO with a significant excess of demand over supply held Nomos-Bank. "Shareholders who sold their shares, no doubt, were glad the issue price of $ 17.5 for the receipt, which is equivalent to the ratio" price / equity on the basis of 2011 "by 1.5" - analyst "Troika Dialog". Investors are not confused, for example, a fairly risky loan portfolio structure "NOMOS": even with the consolidation of the Khanty-Mansiysk Bank about 89% in loans to corporate borrowers have, among whom also occupy a significant share of builders, developers and financial structure. Attention was drawn to the phenomenally high growth rate, which Nomos Bank showed on the eve of IPO. Active sales and write-offs of loans allowed him to keep a low proportion of the delay. Also, before closing the book became known applications for participation in the transaction of such serious buyers, as a businessman Alexander Mamut and Swedish investment fund East Capital. All of this was to bribe investors. Due to the oversubscription of the application were not met in full, but excessive demand for a receipt after the start of exchange trading were not observed. Who is waiting for the market. The success of the IPO depends on several factors, chief among which is the general market situation, says the head of analytical department of the IR "Zerich Capital Management" Nicholas Podlevskikh. Not long ago, she was extremely supportive, but then the situation began to change. In the market correction began, which in May has become more pronounced. With the approach of July, when the United States must complete a second program of quantitative easing, it is likely even more profound subsidence indices. In such circumstances, it is hard to revitalize companies in the IPO. "At a time when daily changes in the value of commodities exceeds 5%, consumers are unlikely interested in placements commodity business" - continues the theme of the chief of analytical department of the Criminal Code "Everest Asset Management," Sophia Ragulin. So, if we see examples of successful Russian IPO in the coming months, it will be representatives of non-oil sector, she said. In Nicholas Podlevskikh different point of view. You should not discard option market conditions improve, and then the most interesting transactions can cause the miners, for example the same Nord Gold, as well as other steelmakers, he said. Also, the chances of successful sale of shares may occur in representatives of the oil and gas sector. The Russian post-crisis IPO issuer industry book-closing of the Exchange volume of transactions, $ mln offering price, $ Price 5/10/11, $ price dynamics, dynamics of the RTS%,% discrepancy, pp HSCI Biotechnology 1/12/09 MICEX 4,6 0,33 0,44 +34,5 +36,7 -2,2 Exillon Energy Oil & Gas 17.12.09 LSE 100,7 2,47 7,30 +195,5 +38, 2 157.3 Aluminum Mining and Metallurgy 27.01.10 HKE, NYSE Euronext Paris 2237,4 1,39 1,48 +6,5 +33,8 -27,3 Russian Sea Food 16/04/10 MICEX, RTS 90 0 6.00 1.81 -69.9 +17.8 -87.7 Protec Pharmaceuticals 04/26/10 MICEX, RTS 400.0 3.50 1.27 -63.8 +19.0 -82.8 Kuzbass Fuel Mining company 30/04/10 MICEX, RTS 163.3 6.50 7.41 +14.0 +23.1 -9.1 Diode Pharmaceuticals MICEX 6/21/10 9.6 1.05 0.97 -7.9 +32