The aim of controlling risk

To reduce the risk of accounting profits can apply a mathematical model of hope came in the case of risk management. We denote by V (x) the expectation value of the integral present value (at a rate discount Ri) and the intensity of earned income was x. It is obvious that V (0) = 0. It is appropriate to consider the case where x> 0. Note for the determination of V (x) This gives the opportunity to negotiate a profit until I = 0. Consider a small time interval (0, dt). There are two possible situations. - With ymovitnistyu? ? dt will fail in the project. To address its consequences require expenditures (random variable), discount the value of which?. The project is normalized after a random period of time t (random variable), after which the object will move in a normal state, which corresponds to the expectation of the integral discounted profit V (x) Assuming that the elimination of "failure" by accident and is subject to an exponential distribution with mean 0, expectation of the discount factor M can be expressed as Assuming that the additional costs in the process of eliminating the consequences of a failure occur uniformly, but their value per unit of time is z, find the expectation of discounted costs of a "failure": - along the interval (0, dt ) time with probability kdt will be an economic disaster. In this case, the project will stop, and because integral discount income of the next operation of the facility will receive a zero value. We have the equation to the calculations for the following can be concluded that the application of a mathematical model of hope came in the case of risk management reduces the risk of accounting gains and helps to improve the bank's activities in general. Topic: Improvement of controlling