That the WTO will make the financial markets

Joseph R. Biden Jr. during a meeting with the Russian leadership has promised unconditional support and even assistance in negotiations with Georgia, and then, meeting with students of Moscow State University, he began to speak, on what terms it will happen. And once again the illusion that much on this one time we will succeed. Conviction of Dmitry Medvedev that Russia will join WTO in 2011, which he expressed even before meeting with U.S. Vice-President, is infected proximately. Indeed, as you can overpay for a foreign car? Perhaps the cars - the most visible example of the benefits to consumers from the entry into the WTO. It is expected that, if we take the "family of nations trading", the import duty on passenger cars will fall from 30% to 25% initially, and then to 15% (for 7 years after entry into the WTO), has pleased the other day the head of our negotiator with the WTO Maxim Medvedkov. At the same should be parallel with the introduction of lower taxes and cheaper foreign-made cars in showrooms, experts explain. If you believe the Russian president and other officials, it's more than real. "I hope that this process (entry into the WTO -" F. ") has finally completed this year. All my partners that I have promised, "- said Dmitry Medvedev, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in late January 2011. The president said that the entry of Moscow in the WTO accession of Russia to follow the OECD. "We are working towards a common economic space with the EU, which will be based on the principle of indivisibility of security, freedom of movement of people, capital and goods, on common technical standards" - described the joyful prospect Medvedev. The fact that the end of 2011 Russia joins the WTO, said in January and WTO head Pascal Lamy, who for the first time in 10 years of its participation in the negotiations feel that they are close to ending. The same was said, and U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Byerly, saying that Russia's accession to WTO is one of the main priorities of the Obama administration. In reality, introd leniya Russia's WTO accession in 2011 is believed by many of our officials expect to complete the accession by June, and the other half spent on technical procedures. 17 years of expectations. Application for accession to the WTO Russia applied in 1993, but then the process is caught up in the many endorsements. In the spring of 2010, Dmitry Medvedev, speaking to leaders of foreign venture capital funds, said that Russia "tired to be in a waiting room, trying to join this organization." And since September the government was given an urgent mandate to "storm" the WTO. This is it and do it. At the end of 2010, we achieved a breakthrough, completing bilateral talks with key players like the EU and the U.S.. True, the storm did not pass without casualties. However, they were not as bloody as the coveted our negotiating partners. Negotiators from the United States most insisted on refusing to support the Russian agro-industrial complex (APC) government subsidies. In the end we compromised. In the autumn Minister of Agriculture Elena Skrynnik said that by 2012 state-supported agriculture will remain at $ 9 billion a year and then will be reduced to $ 4.4 billion In November 2010, we agreed that, immediately after accession to WTO give up the fees charged to airlines for flying over Siberia. Royalties for the non-stop flights to Asia through Siberia, foreign companies pay since 1970. These compensation are "Aeroflot" as a national carrier. According to unofficial estimates, they bring about $ 400-500 million per year. According to the head of the European Union in Moscow, Fernando Valenzuela, the very idea of ​​charging for flight there is nothing wrong, however, since only pay European airlines, Trans-Siberian royalties shall be deemed to be discriminatory. In the "Aeroflot" say that survive without the money. We had to compromise on the issue of export duties on raw timber. Raise them in Russia began in mid-2007, and January 1, 2009 they reached 25% of customs value, or not less than 15 euros per cubic meter. It is very angered the Finns - great lovers buy our wood. They tried to put pressure on Russia to use such aces as a matter of tolls Russian trucks and permission for the laying of "Nord Stream" in its economic zone. But making only a temporary moratorium on the further increase of duties. Now, to join the WTO, we will again go for a compromise. "We were able to agree on rates for different types of forests. Will reduce them from the current level, but we keep the fee is above zero, which was described in 2004, "- said Minister of Economic Development Elvira Elvira, signing in December 2010, a memorandum on completion of bilateral negotiations on Russia's WTO accession. According to experts, negotiations fee will be reduced to 5-15% depending on the type of wood. However, it is still more important issues to be resolved. We are asked to relax control over the quality of imported agricultural raw materials and finished food and want to discuss the size of quotas on meat imports to Russia. As stated in the beginning of February Medvedkov, the main task is to find agreement between the two countries (U.S., EU, Brazil and another 10 States) "under the terms of entry and in which nations will be any quotas." "This is the most difficult thing, because the group of advocates for the abolition of tariff quotas in general, and the other - for their preservation. We need to find a consensus on this issue ", - he said, adding that with the support of agriculture has not yet set the final point in the negotiations. The financial sector is nervous expectation. We should also note the importance of Russia's accession to the WTO for the domestic financial sector. This is especially important because it is not resolved the question whether foreign banks and insurers open branches freely with us. In 2006, the last time I stepped up the question of Russia's accession to the WTO (while, incidentally, also promised to do so in the long term than one year), the prohibition on affiliates managed to defend. This is important because the branch is not a separate legal entity, a business unit of the global organization. Accordingly, if, for example, banks due to the significantly higher capital branch of the central organization can afford to practice without restrictions to make loans (without violating the regulations on lending to one borrower or group of related borrowers). Despite the fact that in recent years, Russian credit institutions (primarily with state) have strengthened their market position, even compete with one such branch of Sberbank even be very difficult. In addition, there is a problem of supervision: the Central Bank to be very difficult to check the central office is located abroad and operating under the laws of another state. Accordingly, if agreement to continue the ban on opening of branches of banks and insurance companies at the present stage, is unclear. In 2006, the ban on opening of branches of the Central Bank had to sacrifice some features to limit the share of foreign capital into the financial system. For banks, the ability to restrict non-resident participation in credit institutions advancing after reaching the plate at 50% of the total capital of banks. However, the benchmark of 50% was taken at the time the situation of Russia's accession to the WTO - that is, the foreign share in Russian banks at the time of entry would not be considered foreign. But if in 2006 the share of foreign capital in Russian banks barely exceeded 12%, now it is 28%. And that means that the ability to restrict foreign participation in the banking system will be possible when the proportion of residents in it will be 64%. That is when the "fight", in fact, already be over. Bankers and insurers, meanwhile, significant changes in the entry into the WTO is not expected. "The Russian insurance market - a very specific and complex sector of Russian economy, and, as we see, the foreigners do not burn a special desire to come to our market. Almost all the Western insurers are interested in the Russian insurance market, has already arrived. And almost all of them got burned on it and do not rush to new investments in business development in Russia ", - says CEO of the insurance group" Mezhregiongarant "Eugene Potapov. Therefore, he said, practically-ki does not matter, foreign companies will have the right to open direct branches here or not. Bankers, too, no collapse is not expected, even if contrary to the wishes of the Central Bank and the agreements already made by foreign banks to open branches in Russia. Everyone who wanted to priya-Tu on the Russian market, have already come, experts say. Yes, our banks will press because they do not have access to long liabilities, but nothing terrible will happen. During that fight? According to the director of NP "Council power producers" Igor Mironov, "in this year's negotiations on Russia's accession to the WTO have made progress, and indeed it is possible that by the summer of this year's technical issues are resolved." However, it is unclear the main thing - do we need this infamous WTO. Among the advantages of joining the World Trade Organization Igor Mironov said the abolition of restrictions on international markets for Russian exports. "The conditions out on the world market for Russian goods are worse all the time - against Russia used more than one hundred discriminatory measures. For example, the domestic steel is not allowed into the U.S. market. And since Russia is isolated from participation in the development of the changing rules of international trade, its interests are not taken into account. Russia does not have access to the mechanism for resolving trade conflicts ", - says head of money markets of the First Republic Bank Igor Shibanov. Profitable entry into the WTO, especially companies in the steel and oil and gas sectors, manufacturers of fertilizers, the analyst says, "Investkafe" Anton Safonov. Pluses of the WTO also, according to an expert, feel the Russian consumers. Prices may fall due to the large amount of imported goods, as well as by competition - both between and among foreign goods and domestic production. "The share of imported goods on the shelves of Russian stores is quite high, so it will drop the price on them. Domestic manufacturers are also forced to reduce prices ", - says Anton Safonov. Who in the red. But there is the WTO and the undoubted negative. After all, if the leave of the domestic producers, then the jobs, of course, becomes smaller and unemployment will rise. Also, for example, in connection with the entry into the WTO experts consider the possible increase in energy rates. Seriously will feel uniquely farmers. "We have drastically low support state sector, and by recent statements Skrynnik, it will steadily diminish. That is, entry into the WTO - is, in fact, the destruction of small and medium-sized farms: dumping import prices, lack of government support, the high cost of growing crops on some of the Russian Federation, the destruction of meat and dairy products ", - analyst" Infina "Marina Shipovskaya. All of this can threaten us blurring of the boundaries of food security and, ultimately, loss of economic sovereignty. "In Western countries, support for farmers is still higher than in Russia, so we abandon it, considering what the prospects are for this sector, it is not necessary. On this issue, most likely, will still go to the fierce debate ", - the chief economist of Deutsche Bank's Yaroslav Lissovolik. To work as usual after the entry into the WTO will not and domestic automakers, because they will not be able to compete in quality with desheveyuschim imports. However, according to head of analytical department of IC "Grandis Capital" by Denis Barabanov, it will only benefit them. For many years they were protected by high tariffs, but of no breakthrough in the industry say no. Yaroslav Lissovolik believes that the entry into WTO, our automakers are joint ventures with foreigners. Vladimir Putin has suggested that the alliance Renault - Nissan doves-Ti its share of "AvtoVAZ" to control. There may come a difficult time for builders. At risk, particularly to enterprises that produce construction materials, which can not withstand competition with Western ones. A few soothing only that, according to the head of research and strategic consulting Cushman & Wakefield Denis Sokolov, clients lose only part of the producers of building materials in the border areas, while others are not affected. "The cost of materials is very important for transport arm. It can reach about 70%. That is the territory of our vast country will not allow them out of poverty by joining the WTO ", - said the expert. More negative outlook for Head of International Business Development RosEvroBank Alexander Arkhipov. According to him, from entry into the WTO exporters do not benefit, since the structure of our exports are still dominated by raw materials, metallurgy, production of timber industry. And the bankers, if the Central Bank will give up the slack will have hard times. Even with the creation of one or two foreign banks branches in Russia, they will give serious competition to the national banking system, causing a wave of closing hundreds of small and medium-sized banks, says Arkhipov. However, Igor Shibanov calm: of the WTO have not got any country, and most of the fears on closer inspection turn out to be imaginary. "Do not be afraid and mass penetration of Western heavyweights, such as in the Russian banking sector. Do not worry for aircraft and automobiles or for agriculture. After all, market access conditions imposed on Russia by no one, and are determined during the negotiations, "- he said. The only serious danger, he says, lies in the fact that the world market Russia is represented by no means high-tech goods, and mostly raw. "That is why Russia and the WTO can arise within the perfect conditions for prosperity eternal commodity economy. But no one ever autarky saved, and everything will depend on Russia itself. There is no other way to the development of high technology as a way together with the whole world "- he concludes.