Stockholm argument

TNK-BP - Russia's third largest oil company, also part of the ten largest private oil producers of the world. The company is vertically integrated holding company with mining, processing and marketing enterprises in Russia and Ukraine. At the beginning of January, total proved reserves of TNK-BP, more than 13 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) by the method of PRMS. Last year, recorded an increase of this index by 12%, including by increasing the oil recovery factor for a number of fields. The main areas are located in West Siberia (Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Districts, Tyumen Region), East Siberia (Irkutsk Region), Volga-Urals (Orenburg Region). Many of them are largely developed, and therefore further increase in TNK-BP depends on the implementation of major new projects, primarily in the Yamal Peninsula. In addition, the company plans expansion abroad. The first step was the signing of an agreement in October with the purchase of BP's production enterprises in Vietnam and Venezuela for $ 1.8 billion in the coming months is expected to close the deal. At the end of 2010, the average daily volume of TNK-BP (excluding shares in the "Slavneft") amounted to 1.74 million boe, an increase of 3%. By 2020, the Yamal fields, the company's forecast, it will provide about 750 thousand barrels of oil equivalent daily production. But now the process of development of the region at an early stage, development of infrastructure requires large investments. TNK-BP owns four refineries in Russia and one in Ukraine and intends to increase their power. Engaged in retail sales network consisting of nearly 1500 gas stations, which operate under the brands of TNK and BP. Part of the petrol stations owned subsidiaries of the group, and the rest - the independent owners. TNK-BP has a rather complex structure of ownership. British BP and Russian consortium AAR control on a parity basis, TNK-BP. Its board includes four representatives from each of the parties and three independent directors. On the balance of TNK-BP, in turn, is TNK Industrial Holdings, which owns 63% of "Russia Petroleum", the operator of the Kovykta gas condensate field, and 100% of TNK-BP International. This structure belongs, in particular, almost 50% of "Slavneft" and 100% of the Cyprus Novy Investments. Finally, the latter controls about 95% of Russia's "TNK-BP Holding", the owner of multiple operating companies in Russia and Ukraine. The remaining 5% equity holding in the form of ordinary and preference shares are from minority shareholders. Since the autumn of both types of securities admitted to trading on the MICEX and RTS without going through the listing. "TNK-BP Holding" regularly pays a dividend, including interim. Growth factors 1. Change of ownership One of the probable options to resolve the conflict around the alliance of BP and of "Rosneft" - this is redemption shares AAR in TNK-BP, or British, or Russian state company. Such a deal would have prompted market participants to purchase shares of a speculative "TNK-BP Holding," the analysts said. The purpose of the consortium AAR was hardly just to block the creation of the alliance. And the decision of the Stockholm arbitration - it's a good argument in the negotiations about a possible sale price of the package AAP. 2. Improved financial performance of annual accounts of the holding of US GAAP exceeded the predictions of observers in the value of free cash flow and net income. More modest than expected, and proved to be cost of sales and general and administrative expenses. Availability of funds allows the company to pay dividends in the form of the lion's share of the profits. Dividend yield, "TNK-BP Holding" - traditionally one of the highest in the sector. 3. The development company has developed a promising areas of ten-year program to build its own gas production and oil refining. It is assumed that by 2020 gas component in the total production of TNK-BP will exceed 20% and may reach 30 billion cubic meters. m per year compared to the current 12 billion cubic meters. m. As for oil, the company plans to send in their refineries to 52% of extracted raw materials. Factors reducing 1. Political Risks Involving BP to the development of the Arctic shelf and mutual exchange of shares with "Rosneft" received the support of Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Initially, market participants even questioned the seriousness of the AAP jeopardize the deal approved at such a high level. So far, apparently, the consortium feels confident, however, analysts point to the increased political risks for both the ADA and the structures of TNK-BP. 2. Unsuccessful configuration owners Distribution of shares in the capital of TNK-BP prepares the ground for a new stage of confrontation. Typically, when a package of basic equality owners struggle takes place for the votes of small sobstivennikov, from which the solutions depend on controversial issues. But most of TNK-BP minorities there, and the small shareholders, "TNK-BP Holding" under the current ownership structure is almost no leverage over management of the company. 3. The threat of medium-term plans in 2013, planned to launch the first section of the pipeline Zapolyarnoye - Purpe. It would connect with existing pipeline system Yamal oil fields, particularly those belonging "TNK-BP Holding." However, the timing may be shifted because of the differences between oil companies and "Transneft" with respect to tariffs and guaranteed throughput volumes. In addition, the project seems to cost more than 120 billion rubles, which was estimated. Analysts' forecasts investment company, bank fair price per share, rubles. Deutsche Bank Unicredit 106 62 57 Metropole Renaissance Capital, VTB Capital 90 100 77 Uralsib Bank of Moscow 67 The consensus forecast of 80 Price on MICEX, 03/30/11 85 The potential of -6%