What to expect from the markets in April and May

A good potential and have accumulated some stock outsiders in recent months. Experts highlighted the stock developer groups. It seems that the industry really comes from a long dive and deserves to be a gradual recovery of financial and operational performance of developers is reflected in their quotes. Another series of investment ideas associated with the approach of the period of record shareholders to participate in annual meetings and receive dividends. Andrei Zakharov, an analyst with IC "Ankorinvest": - We distinguish two dividend "history" - preferred securities of "Surgutneftegaz" and ordinary - MTS. According to the first payment should be around 1.3 rubles, based on the consensus forecast of last year in net profits of the enterprise to 140.7 billion rubles. If the share price of 16 rubles to the dividend yield will reach 8%. Closure of register of shareholders of "Surgutneftegaz" is likely to occur in mid-May. In turn, the MTS dividend policy involves distribution to holders of not less than 50% of net profit. In practice, this proportion usually reaches 60-75%. At the end of 2010, is expected to take more dividends, too - about 75% of the income of MTS. Especially considering that AFK "System" - the main shareholder of mobile operator - is now very interested in building their own cash position. If the consensus forecast of annual net profit of MTS in 47.3 billion rubles paid per share reached 18.5 rubles, which corresponds to the dividend yield of 7.3% in quotation marks at 251 rubles. Close the registry is expected in May. It is worth remembering that, traditionally, the day after the record date stock quotes, somewhat reduced. So it was last year, preferred shares of "Surgutneftegaz", for example, lost almost 7%. This fact is taken into account by investing in securities with high dividend yield. George Aksenov, analyst "Nettreyder": - If the situation on the Russian market will be relatively calm, the shares of construction companies have to show strong momentum. Perhaps this is the only industry whose securities have not yet rebounded from the crisis of low grades. Meanwhile, the real estate market is rapidly restored and the developers are willing to increase capitalization. The first is to provide shares of PIK Group. First of all, finally resolved the conflict between its former shareholders and current owner of the largest in the person of Kerimov, "Nafta-Moscow". Second, the set point in the proceedings with Nomos-Bank, around a large loan to a group in crisis. Third, FDI may well hold a secondary offering, and it is unlikely the offer price will be low. You can also recall the impressive increase in sales achieved in 2010. In the medium term action PICA have no less than 50 per cent growth potential. Another developer, who also looks attractive for investment, - "Sistema Hals". It should work two ideas: first, the company's shares are worth at least four times cheaper than before the crisis, and second, its principal owner VTB builds a large holding on the basis of "systems Gals" actively lending to his daughter. In a short time, both factors will be reflected in a company's capitalization. Dmitry Bedenko, head of analytical department of the IR "Russ-Invest": - The growth potential of shares of oil and gas sector is far from over, even though they are the driving force of Russian indices increase from the beginning of the year (the industry "RTS - Oil & Gas" is almost twice the base ahead of the RTS index by growth rate). The most interesting term in the coming months, we believe the paper "Gazprom". Despite the risks, they remain one of the most fundamentally undervalued blue chips. Anticipatory dynamics and are able to show ordinary shares of "Surgutneftegaz", which is almost 20% down from January's values ​​and become an outsider in the sector. Decrease in the proportion "Surgutneftegaz" in the index family FTSE put additional pressure on the quotation. The current market capitalization does not reflect the improvement of its operating results due to favorable external markets. In the future, it should be a supporting factor for the shares of "Surgutneftegaz". Also, investors should pay attention to the paper with a potentially high dividend yield. Expectation of attractive benefits will support the preferred shares of the same "Surgutneftegaz", "Tatneft", as well as common shares of MTS. Ilya Fedotov, Head of Equity Research IR "Veles Capital": - Shares of Energy, in particular, FGC, fell because of an anticipated reduction of tariffs. However, the cash flows are fairly stable, and the smoothing of tariff limited to it, probably only 5%. So in clarifying the situation FGC shares should be among the first to play preceded the fall. The potential growth of quotations in the coming months - 10-20%. At the same time definitely need to withdraw from the purchase of securities of "Rostelecom", which is about to begin profit, because the company is completing the reorganization. In turn, lower prices for raw materials for the steel industry is a negative factor for stocks "Mechel" and "Raspadskaya" - they can also prosest. Overall, our outlook for the Russian market in April - May rather optimistic. If you rely on technical analysis, the RTS index to the upper boundary acts as a mark 2100 points. But its growth will depend heavily on world events - a conflict in Libya caused the rise in price of oil, the consequences of the disaster in Japan. A significant correction in oil prices should be expected, but growth is also - and made a mark so high. Paper oil companies now do not look as interesting as a few months ago. In the oil and gas sector can be identified shares of "Gazprom", from which we expect to further increase gas export prices. Timur Salikov, portfolio manager of the Criminal Code "Alliance Rosno UA ': - Shares of" BRIC "will demonstrate the anticipatory dynamics. Potash market was in deficit. A noticeable increase in demand and the oligopolistic structure of the proposal led to that from the beginning, the value of this type of fertilizers increased several times. Only in February, the spot price rose from $ 430 to $ 510 per ton, which is much higher than the average forecast by analysts in the mortgaged computational models. Today's consumers expect determining the value of the contract for the supply of potash in India, which will set a new benchmark for other importers from South-East Asia. According to our estimates, the figure will exceed newly established price. Basic indicators on food markets also favored by producers of fertilizers. In particular, the volume of world cereal stocks are at a very low level. "Uralkali" is a leading producer of potash with a market share of 9%. In addition to the extremely favorable pricing environment, an important support for its shares and will have a continuing association with the "Silvinit", resulting in the formation company in the world's third largest industry leaders and through controlling the structure of trading for more than 40% of all deliveries of potash fertilizers. Ivan Fomenko, head of asset management Absolut Bank: - Despite all the negativity around gold companies that had accumulated over the past week, the main representatives of the sector "Polymetal" and "Polyus Gold" maintain a significant growth potential, even compared to some operational problems. High prices for gold and silver rates will support both companies. Another investment idea is to purchase shares of the Savings Bank. Quotes sank after reporting that, on the one hand, demonstrated a net profit growth of a credit institution to another - reducing net interest margin. Moreover, market participants have not yet decided on the assessment of the transaction the bank's acquisition of the "Troika Dialog", as well as possible expansion in the CIS countries, where competitive advantage "Sberbank" is not as obvious as in the CIS countries. Apparently, the correction in these stocks is over, and soon we will see explosive growth with a possible renewal of historic highs. Another investideya regards electricity. Paper generation and transmission companies fell after sharp statements about the tariff policy of the authorities in the industry. We are still not inclined to dramatize the situation and believe that the horizon of two to three months to return to the previous quote values ​​that correspond to the potential growth of 15-20%. Timur Khairullin, deputy chief of analytical department of IC "Grandis Capital": - In the near future may become known details of the involvement of "Lukoil" in the development of oil fields to them. Trebs and them. Titov, a joint venture with "Bashneft." It would draw the attention of the players to his actions. And in the longer term holding is interesting for its development strategy aimed at growth and processing of natural gas production in order to maximize cash flow and capitalization. It is also important that bidders are no longer afraid of oversupply of shares of "Lukoil" due to the sale of package ConocoPhillips (that is completely out of the share capital of the Russian company). We also recommend to buy preferred shares "Bashneft". She recently received the above-mentioned low fields, to increase its reserves by nearly a third. In addition, the company is a major contender for the assets in the industry that "Sberbank Capital" is planning to sell this year. Due to acquisitions and organic growth, "Bashneft" will enhance oil production. It is possible, and tax benefits. In general, the Russian oil and gas sector look attractive on a comparative multiples, which are on average almost 30% lower than that of similar foreign oil and gas producers. Vladimir Popov, chief specialist of investkonsultirovaniya database "Opening": - In April, Russia's largest producer of sugar - the group "Rusagro" - is planning an IPO in London. This can give rise to attract investors 'interest in the sector in general and in particular to the shares' Razgulyai, "which is available on long exchanges. Especially since they traded at a discount of at least 30% of those multiples, which plans to accommodate "Rus-aggro." According to our estimates, the fair value of the shares "Razgulyai" - 90 rubles, or almost one and a half times higher than current prices. With a widely diversified business producing cereals, sugar and rice imports, the team should improve this year's financial results coupled with a high rate of growth of food prices. In 2010, operating income "Razgulyai" has increased 1.5 times, and the company received a net profit after prior period loss. In addition, the ratio of debt to operating profit decreased from 8 to 5.5, which is encouraging for the further reduction of debt, which almost bankrupted the crisis "Razgulay." It should also pay attention to the shares of Petersburg developer LSR, which is rapidly increasing its business - is preparing for expansion in the construction market in Moscow and plans to erect a new brick plant in the Leningrad region. Paper LSR growth potential of more than 40%.