How to make money in a falling market

Analysts point to several investment ideas in power, despite the overall negative investor sentiment towards the industry in recent years. Of interest are the shares of IDC Center and Volga Region, FGC, and preferred securities, "Len-power." The transition units of the first company to RAB-billing has created the preconditions for the doubling of its profits and the market is underestimating. Quotes FGC can spur deployment of a small package of its shares in London, announced in March. As for the preferred shares "Lenenergo", then it can pay high dividends. Earlier this year, investors have not complained and the banking sector, waiting for certainty with the terms of the privatization of 10% of VTB. Now that the deployment is over, and it went very well, the negative news background no longer dominates the industry. And the best dynamics it can demonstrate Sberbank. Sergey Grigoryan, head of investment department of the Criminal Code, "Pioneer Investment Management": - Rolling back the shares of "Gazprom", which started in mid-February, apparently, already been completed. Do investors have an opportunity to buy some paper cheapened. The catalyst for the growth of quotations can be negotiated "Gazprom" about the availability of the Celestial Kingdom. Technical issues have been resolved, it remains to agree on a price. Of course, the Chinese knock-effective long-term contract is not easy, but do not start deliveries until 2015. Nevertheless, news background around the talks will heat up interest in the shares of the concern. Because in the end it will have a huge market in the years ahead and reduce dependence on demand from European consumers. Another investment idea in the wake of the gradual recovery of the construction sector and real estate can be a purchase of shares of LSR Group, which operates in the market low-cost mass housing starts and expansion in the Moscow region. According to rumors, she has a good relationship with the new officials of the Moscow construction sector leadership. In addition, Russia continues to increase the volume of cement, which is also positive for the company - one of the largest manufacturers of these products. In general, in March - April, we expect the movement of indices of emerging markets in a wide range. In the first part of the period likely to increase by 5-7%, then - the profit and the beginning of the correction until the autumn. Eugene Smirnov, chief portfolio manager of the Criminal Code, "Aton-Management": - The biggest attraction has nefegazovy sector. This is due to soaring oil prices on the aggravation of the political situation in North Africa and the Middle East - exporting "black gold". But the most interesting Russian company in the oil industry - "Rosneft". Recall that it was planning a share exchange with BP for further joint development of the Arctic shelf. This is a very promising trend, especially in Russia, it was for new projects in the oil industry is a preferential tax regime, that is, they are able to create additional value for shareholders of companies. You can also select stocks potash workers. Rise in price of agricultural products on world markets contributes to the growth of consumption of fertilizers, including potassium. Now is the consolidation of "BRIC" and "Silvinit", which further strengthen their pricing discipline and strengthen the negotiating position with customers. The main risks for the Russian stock market are associated with the outflow of capital from developing regions. Investor sentiment towards him deteriorated due to increased inflation expectations and, therefore, likely to tighten monetary policy. Impact and the already mentioned political turmoil in some countries of the group emerging markets. Alexander Potavin, head of analytical department of IC "ITinvest - Prospect": - Due to expected growth rates limit the action of electricity generating companies will be out of favor with investors. Nevertheless, we identify potentially interesting preferred securities "Lenenergo". According to the charter company, on dividends thereon shall be sent to 10% of net profit under RAS. At the end of 2010 are expected to pay at 3,75-4 rubles per share, while the quotation marks are held at 44 rubles-la. That is, the dividend yield may reach 9%. I think this spring will continue and demand for shares of fertilizer producers, given that food prices in recent months reached record levels. There are interesting paper, "Akron." Management of the company reached the level of the Prime Minister to stop the merger "BRIC" and "Silvinit" and to prevent monopolization of the Russian market of potassium chloride. Vladimir Putin's response is expected in March and April. If the decision is acceptable to "Akron", his paper can fly up to 5-7%. In mid-February, the MICEX index was trading around 5% below annual highs, despite the soaring oil prices. This is a bad sign. Almost uninterrupted growth of U.S. indexes in the fall only increases the likelihood of a sharp correction. In this regard, we recommend you stay away from liquid securities and focus on the protective actions of the second echelon. Valery Piven, deputy head of information department Probusinessbank: - Shares of Sberbank should hold better than the market. In recent months the exchanges banking sector lagged behind other industries. Quotes on credit institutions weighed forthcoming deployment package VTB, but now it is completed. Also, as expected, reporting Savings RAS reflect continued growth in lending and the dissolution of reserves. It also would have liked to investors. Another investment idea is to buy shares in FGC UES, which began the year the movement quotes up, but then went on to decline. The reason for the cooling of interest to electric utilities was the decision by officials to limit rate increases. However, market reaction is overly emotional. An additional driver for quotes CSF may be placing 1.5-2% of its shares on the LSE in the form of depositary receipts, which is expected in mid-March. We believe that the fair price of securities of Sberbank in the range of 130-140 rubles, FGC - 0,47-0,5 rate. In general, the Russian market in February showed a mixed trend. Potential accumulated by increasing the stock indexes in the U.S. and the rising trend in the sector of hydrocarbons, remained unfulfilled. We believe that investors will continue to actively build up positions in Russian stocks. Vladimir Sporynin, managing director of the Criminal Code "Everest Asset Management": - Investors in Russian stocks, especially in the broad market through futures on RTS index and passive funds, a good opportunity to "take the money." Growth in recent months was largely on the purchases of securities by foreign long-only funds, which simply had to learn clients' funds. Since late last year indicators in many developing countries have adjusted to 2-15% and the RTS index, by contrast, was in the black. The Russian market is usually delayed in response to global change conditions. Judging by the political and economic situation in the world, hardly encouraging investors to continue in the coming weeks. Why not wait till this time in cash or hedged portfolio? I believe that the RTS index will drop to 1600-1650 points, if not prevent the continuation of euphoria in the market of "black gold". However, huge speculative positions in oil futures and the inability of the world economy is now adapting to levels significantly higher than $ 100 a barrel, most likely, will not allow oil prices to remain consistently high. Long-term investors to better monitor future volatility in the markets from the sidelines. Speculators may try to make money on short positions in equity index of developing countries and the eurozone. Sergei Markarian, chief investment management of the Criminal Code "Interfin Capital": - In the power attractive stock IDC Center and Volga region. Regions, which serves the company have gone over to the system of RAB-billing, which will lead to a doubling of profits in the next two to three years. The market evaluation of Center and Volga IDC suggests a discount of 40-50% to emerging market peers. Despite the potential for value growth, it is worth recalling that in the short term paper of all electricity may still remain under pressure due to the Government's intention to restrain prices. In the mining sector, shares of interest "Raspadskaya". The consensus forecast of other them 20 per cent increase. The continued recovery of the mine after the accident, paves the way for improved financial performance. In addition, these securities are traded, too, with attractive rates estimates. Despite limited opportunities to export products in the near future, "Raspadskaya" with the increasing production will be among those most strongly benefit from the increased cost of coking coal. As for the stock market as a whole, in the coming months, probably increased volatility. Political instability in some regions of the world, pushed up commodity prices, could lead to a transient reduction in risk appetite. Andrei Gritsenko, CEO of MC "Capital Asset": - One of the best investment ideas may purchase shares of "Raspadskaya" and the CTC. Our reliance on coal industry based on coal shortage in the world market and improvement of forecasts of company profits. Unfortunately, the turmoil in some Arab countries are able to scare investors. It seems to us, March and April will be extremely volatile for months, so the forecast, they grow up, or stock index will fall by the end of the period - a very thankless occupation. However, in Russia there are grounds for cautious optimism: the prospect of strengthening the ruble, low-key return to the FIS-local policies, output growth and the resumption of lending. With favorable developments and to achieve the oil level acceptable for suppliers and consumers, the Russian market could grow by 10-15%. The favorites will become commodity businesses, particularly mining. Action "Raspadskaya" and undervalued by the CTC P / E ratio and EV / EBITDA of 15-30% relative to counterparts from the developing regions. Quotes of the first company able to reach 270-280 rubles-lei, the second - 280-300 rubles. Good potential of growth securities is also a CMI (40 rubles), "Gazprom oil" (up to 160-170 rubles), the peak (160 rubles) and a number of regional IDCs. In the worst scenario, the indices will be reduced by the same 10-15%. Constantine Yuminov, analyst, "Rye, Man & Gor Securities': - Among the low-liquidity stocks worth paying attention to common and preferred securities of OJSC" VNIPIgazdobycha "- the service's Daughter" Gazprom ", which is engaged in research and design work on the oil and gas fields . It is expected that the gas company will soon be determined with an investment in Bovanenkovo ​​and Chayanda field for the next two years. "VNIPIgazdobycha" will participate in their development. Clarity with funding these projects, "Gazprom" and clarify the prospects for its designer. The company also underestimated by multiples compared to peers. Target price of its common stock - $ 2311, preferred - $ 578. Paper "Metafrax", the largest supplier of methanol and its derivatives, also deserve attention. World prices for petrochemical products grows after the oil that is not reflected in market valuation of the enterprise. Meanwhile, several more liquid stocks and NKNKh "Kazanorgsintez" has played a positive trend for the industry. We believe that investors have finally turned their eyes and to "Matafraks." Additional drivers to serve as a more open market of the company (as of next year to begin publication of the IFRS) and its possible preparation for an IPO. Quotations may grow to $ 1.7 per share. Eugene Kanahina, a leading analyst of the Criminal Code "Pallada Asset Management": - Amid the surge in oil investment idea is obvious: you should buy shares in oil and gas sector, lagging for the past year on the market. Our favorites in the industry - "Gazprom", "Lukoil", "Transneft". There is growing political tensions in the Middle East and Africa, there is no clear understanding of how this will end, how to change the economy will shift in power in several countries. One thing is certain - inevitable disruptions in oil supplies. For a while the fear factor will keep oil prices high, it will attract the attention of oil producers in the securities of both institutional investors and speculators. I do not want to name any other specific targets for quotations mentioned stocks. But in any case in March - April, they are able to show the best results. In general, the market is very unstable, players have the desire to take profits. At the same time, America is on the rise, corporations show excellent results, the Fed continues to pump the economy with money.