Baker's dozen of Russian stock market

The second wave of the crisis has not covered the world and Russian economy. But excess liquidity, rushed to the stock market in 2009-2010, coupled with the increased inflationary expectations helped to increase the value of assets. The lucky ones who invest money in stocks in late 2008 - early 2009's, when their value was at the bottom, to augment the capital several times. Good luck, for example, monkey Lukerya, "employee" of the theater, "Grandpa's Corner Durova" experiment in the late 2008 held "F.". Then macaque formed its own portfolio of Russian blue chips, extending eight of the 30 blocks scattered on the table with the names of unlisted shares, among which was distributed virtual 1 million rubles in equal shares. Little less than two years yield "investments" made by the monkey, has exceeded 200%. However, during this period grew almost all issuers quotes. Embedded in a very liquid securities, could be to increase capital in 9-10 times. Investors, not afraid to buy depreciating fairly second-tier stocks, could earn even more. Seemed to miscalculate in such a situation is impossible. But miracles happen: at least a pair of liquid securities - ordinary shares of "Rostelecom" and OPIN - would cause losses to their owners. Were not much better investment in MOESK, or NCSP - 2 years these papers have added less than 20%. But perhaps the "losers" is only slightly slowed down with the recovery and are now ready to shoot at any moment? Rostelecom During 2010, the future shape of the joint "Rostelecom" (long-distance operator + MRK) became clearer. Completion of the consolidation process is expected in the first half of 2011. Against this backdrop, shares of inter-company communication (ISC) enjoyed strong demand from investors that are configured for low-cost entry into the capital of the "new" company. Profitability for individual IRAs reached 900%. The fall of the shares of "Rostelecom" looks strange, but understandable. "Peak lift shares of the main operator was in the autumn of 2006, when a very active buying securities from the market - says Sergei Zakharov of" Alemar. " - As a result, its market capitalization was too high at times relative to fundamental value. Then give some momentum to decide on the merger on the basis of "Rostelecom" all the major subsidiaries of the state holding "Communication-invest." But enter the company was more profitable to have a stock IRAs. " Public investment was only in September 2010 ended a two-year conflict between Vladimir Potanin and Mikhail Prokhorov because of OPIN, which essentially put pressure on the quotation. As a result, the company together with a land bank of about 50 hectares came under the control of Mikhail Prokhorov. According to the new "old" owner's listing in London can be carried out in 2012. "If there are good projects and in the case of good financial results OPIN shares in 2011 will grow to at least 1.6 thousand rubles, which suggests the potential of 15%" - analyst predicts "Investkafe" Anton Safonov. However, this is not enough to conquer the pre-crisis peaks at the end of June 2008 the value of shares on the RTS rose to $ 420 apiece, while the MICEX peaked in early trading - in late September 2008, when a paper was given 3.5 times the current level - 5.1 thousand. Prisco Since late 2008, the paper entered the outset and can not possibly rise to pre-recession levels: about 80-95% of the market concentrated in the nominee and offshore accounts and balances are not enough to attract the attention of stock market participants. Yet until recently, many analysts saw this as an interesting investment issuer. "Our main business is transporting oil, so it is not strongly affected by the crisis. PMP has invested in the renewal of the fleet and now offers modern oil tankers involved in long-term contracts for gas projects in Sakhalin, which ensured the company's stable cash flow, "- says analyst Catherine Andreyanova RMG Securities. However, recently sold part of the PMP ships "Sovkomflot" to settle the loan portfolio. This will lead to a significant reduction in future cash flows, which can not but alarm investors, experts said. NCSP Thanks to strong operating results and optimism of market participants, quotes, NCSP quickly recovered. But last fall, the paper came under severe pressure. Investors negatively by the news of the change of shareholders in the autumn of last year (to replace Alexander Ponomarenko and Alexander came Skorobogatko "Transneft" and "Total Capital"), fearing that it might adversely affect the level of corporate governance. Konstantin Romanov of "Finam" confident that nothing: NCSP will remain a public company without compromising the quality of corporate governance. Preservation of most of the top management ensures that the NCSP strategy will not change significantly. Given that the NCSP stands at 30-40% cheaper than foreign counterparts, "Finam" expect that investors will pay attention to undervalued asset. MOESK Throughout 2010 continued uncertainty in the transition to the new system MOESK long-term tariff regulation of energy networks, based on return on invested capital (RAB). Too many disputes caused the harmonization of regulation. "It is clear that Moscow - a complex socially significant area, and we had to find a balance between the growth rates and the state of network capacity, ie, the Investment Program - notes from Catherine Tripoten" BrokerCreditService. " - But many investors do not like uncertainty. And news that the Federal Tariff Service still agreed price parameters, left only on 30 December 2010. " Now stir investors around the power grid companies associated with the transition to RAB-regulation, verse. Prospects shares MOESK analysts attribute to the further growth of tariffs and the increasing number of consumers. An additional driver of growth may be the inclusion of MOESK in the RTS index. TGC-14 in TGK-14, the smallest territorial generating company is not the most efficient capacity, 83.6% owned joint venture "Energopromsbyt" (controlled by a parity basis, the "Group UST" Gregory Berezkina and Railways). For example, in 2008 the company completed a net loss of 410 million rubles, in 2009 it rose to 482.5 million by the end of 2010 pre-THC-14 made a profit of 20-50 million rubles. But even coming in a positive area, the company remains one of the most marginally in the sector. Uncertainty added ad Railways desire to withdraw from the asset and have begun to negotiate the "Inter RAO" with Gregory Beryozkin. "The fate of the company is still not clear - says Catherine Tripoten. - It seems that the "strategic" investors, who bought it from RAO "UES of Russia", it is not really necessary, and a buyer for this asset is not. " The Seventh Continent During the crisis the company was experiencing great difficulties, for example, in June 2009, "The Seventh Continent" defaulted on bond issue to 7 billion rubles. Terms of the restructuring are not arranged all the bondholders, which triggered sue. Development had to be stopped, but profitability still remained weak. "Investors prefer stocks over long-term" Magnet ", X5 Retail Group and" Dixie "," - says Catherine Andreyanova. In addition, "The Seventh Continent" severely eroded its own standards for providing information. At the same time the company's shares were bought from the market actively, and currently free-float does not exceed 5% of the capital. "The main owner of a grocery retailer, Alexander Zanadvorov still continue efforts to consolidate 100% of the company, which involves exposure of an offer to minority shareholders for an interesting price," - Anton Safonov forecasts of "Investkafe." Since the acquisition Fortum Fortum controlling stake in TGK-10 in 2008, the basic idea was to buy shares from minority shareholders of securities, said Vladimir Samorodov of RMG Securities. But the condition of each subsequent purchase were worse than the previous one. Approved by the State contracts for the supply capacity (DPM) must be approved by the Shareholders of the company. The prospect of repayment at the Dissenters and caused a small burst of quotations last fall. "The state, however, is likely to allow generating companies PDM structure as a collection of small contracts that do not require the approval of minority shareholders, and" Fortum "will not have to put an offer" - the expert believes. In addition, although Fortum and repeatedly expressed a desire to own 100% of the company, arguing that the high cost to mail notices of shareholders (approximately $ 0.6-0.7 million per year), but after the change of registrar expenses decreased by 3-4 times and the need for obtaining complete control anymore. 36.6 Problems with the pharmacy chain began long before the crisis came to Russia. Costs of rapid growth, including through the absorption of the regional networks are a large number of unprofitable outlets and a high debt load ($ 271 million at December 31, 2007). By 2010, the figures improved slightly but still remains weak. Thus, in the first half of 2010, the company showed a net loss of 546.3 million rubles, which was 9.2% lower than in 2009. Management intends to increase profitability by lowering prices to attract buyers and increase turnover. In addition, the company intends to continue closing unprofitable pharmacies. "If the plans are actually able to implement, interest in paper back - believes Catherine Andreyanova. - Positive signals can not be seen until the second half of 2011, when the company will publish its financial results for the first quarter. " Bank of Moscow Bank of Moscow has long been an outsider in the stock market. Low investor interest in the shares of the bank was associated mainly with a small number of securities in circulation and, consequently, their low liquidity, explains Konstantin Romanov. However, since late 2009 has attracted the attention of investors the issuer. They became alarmed after the additional shares, believing that the placement will strengthen the capital and financial condition of the bank. And in 2010, excitement broke out over plans to consolidate 100% of VTB shares of a financial organization, which includes an offer to minority shareholders. True, the conditions of compulsory purchase may not be too attractive. But first, VTB will have to buy all the big blocks, which in particular can be achieved through a voluntary offer, which may be offered favorable terms. Gazprom "from" Gazprom "is still a lot of risks, but also against the background of sustained high prices for natural gas in Europe, they do not seem as severe as before - said Gromadin of" Arbat Capital. " - In the U.S., the price of gas continues to be at the lowest level, but management of "Gazprom" assures that the North American slantsegazovaya revolution will not affect the activity of concern. " According to the analyst, as long as in Asia, which now is supposed to send liquefied natural gas from Shtokman, kept prices high. A successful conclusion of negotiations with China on the cost of delivered gas will mark the beginning of the Altai gas pipeline from fields in West Siberia, which will help to "Gazprom" not to lose the competition in long-term direction. "And yet, in the long term, the company is undervalued, but I doubt that the growth potential is realized already this year" - believes Vitaly Gromadin. Surgutneftegaz "Surgutneftegas" has historically traded with the market dynamics ahead of a possible early in the year in advance of the closing of the register of shareholders. "The company has accumulated a huge stock of money in the account, but because of secrecy and opacity of" Surgutneftegaz "minority shareholders can not expect to implement them in their favor - reflects Vitaly Gromadin. - There was hope for more action in the past year with the purchase of a package of Hungarian MOL. But because of the anti-Hungarian Government and MOL management deal for the "Surgutneftegaz" was not strategic, and trade. " The company has bought 21.2% of MOL's shares in the spring of 2009 for $ 1.86 billion, now the package can be sold already for $ 2.3 billion minority shareholders in the event of a sale will feel the effect of the transaction only upon distribution of dividends for 2011, that is closer to the spring of next year. In this new step in an interesting investment from the company to be seen. Comstar Quotes "Comstar" stagnating since last summer, when the main shareholder of the company - "Mobile TeleSystems" - has decided to consolidate 100% of the telecommunications operator. Part of the shares "Comstar" were bought from minority shareholders at a price close to market. The remaining securities investors will be able to exchange for local shares of MTS by a factor of approximately 1 to 0.825 in April this year. "Papers of the MTS do not show significant growth from mid-2010, the same dynamics and demonstrate the action" Comstar "- said the Bank of Moscow analyst Kirill Hot. - While their current price implies a discount to local shares of MTS. Purchase of securities now will enable investors to enter into the local mobile operator shares at a lower price, and receive dividends MTS, which is expected higher (dividend yield - 7-9%). "