The Middle East is experiencing Malthusian crisis

The February revolt in Egypt led to many political, religious and ideological interpretations. They are all in varying degrees, have a right to exist, but it is worth paying attention to an important aspect of Egyptian events - economic and demographic. Behind the facade of the struggle against the Mubarak regime (no doubt corrupt) lies a more dangerous and intractable Malthusian trap. Priest Thomas Malthus in 1798 published his famous work "The experience of the law of population", which formulated the theory that population growth occurs in a geometric progression, and the growth of food production - in arithmetic, which inevitably leads to social disasters (war, disease and hunger) that reduces the population to an acceptable level. Malthus's ideas have always attracted controversy in the scientific community. On the one hand, the assumption that growth in food production lags behind population growth has been partly refuted by the "green revolution", 1950-1970's, which showed that the complex of technological change in agriculture (breeding of more productive varieties of plants, expansion of irrigation, application of fertilizers, pesticides and modern technology) can lead to a significant increase in global agricultural production. On the other hand, the reformulation of the modern scientific language the thesis of Malthus that the resources of an ecosystem are finite and the population can not increase indefinitely, causing increasing pressure on the resource base is undeniable. Malthusian dynamics - a series of "uncontrolled population growth - rebellion, war, famine - the reduction of the population, further population growth again" - is familiar to historians, demographers and economists *. Moreover, despite all the successes of the "green revolution" in the Malthusian trap may fall and our contemporaries. Thus, one of the most compelling scientific explanation ** monstrous genocide in Rwanda in 1994 (as a result of inter-ethnic massacres killed about 1 million people) is precisely the neo-Malthusian doctrine - ethnic, religious, social strife arises not just because, at its core is often competition for reduced as a result of uncontrolled population growth resources. Doubling mouths. The situation in Egypt makes us think again about the economic and demographic causes of social unrest. What exactly is this the largest Arab country in the economic and demographic sense? The population density in Egypt is among the highest in the world (about 2,5 thousand people per square kilometer of arable land), much of the country is desert, and unfit for habitation. As a result, 80 million people forced to live on the coasts and in the Nile Delta (about 18 million live in Cairo and its suburbs). On these same lands are cultivated crops. In this country demonstrates a fairly high population growth - an average of 2% per year (1.5 million new mouths each year), since 1980 the population nearly doubled. From this mass of young people who, in the absence of industrial development, particularly to do nothing. It is interesting to note that population growth has a positive component of the economy, at least, to some extent. Added to the population - are added to consumers creates demand - GDP grows. Economists call this "demographic dividend". Add to that the low base effect, foreign aid, it is theoretically possible to get a fairly decent-digit growth (a combination of these factors often leads to dramatic jumps in GDP in the third world: for example, an economic leader in the crisis of 2009 m has suddenly become Afghanistan from 22.5 % GDP growth). However, Egypt's GDP growth is not too different in recent years by emerging makets: 3-4% in the first half of the 2000s, 4-7% - in the second. The main sources of fiscal revenue and the fundamentals of the economy as a whole are served, and revenues from the oil industry (though in recent years Egypt has become a net importer of "black gold"). Tourism, remittances of Egyptians working abroad, revenues from the Suez Canal and foreign aid - set, not with a distinct modernizing potential. "Demographic dividend" is also not really worked - newly arrived young people in the labor market swelled the ranks of the unemployed (unemployment figures are the official figures grossly underestimated and therefore are of little value). Those fortunate just a job, working mainly in the public sector - it accounts for about 70% of all jobs, this paternalism and reliance on public assistance in everything. But help is necessary, because people must be fed - Egyptians love their wheat bread "Aish baladi" (their value by two-thirds subsidized by the state, as well as many other things - hence stable chronic budget deficit of 4-10% in recent years). Growing crops is entirely dependent on irrigation, the only source of water - the Nile, rainfall in the country is not seen. Imported "Nile" and the food riots? Production of wheat in Egypt, according to FAO, is 8 million tons per year, consumption is 2 times more - 16 million, the difference is covered by imports. Egypt ranks first in world imports of wheat (in terms of tonnage, but not the cost - this keeps the primacy of Japan, traditionally the majority of imports into Egypt - the supply of relatively cheap wheat from Russia). In addition, Egypt imports maize (6th place in the world), soybeans (12 th), sugar (8 th), palm oil (8th place), soybean oil (13th place) while exporting cotton, rice and small amounts of fruits and vegetables. The overall balance of food trade in Egypt, according to the WTO in 2009, strongly negative - $ 9 billion against imports of $ 2.5 billion in exports. Purchasing food in the world, Egypt is actually imported water - because the real import of water logistically extremely difficult, he goes into a mature form (Economists call this process of virtual water trade - virtual water trade ***). The idea is that the scarcity of water resources the country is forced to buy food for the production of which is necessary to spend a lot of water. Wheat purchased by Egypt, - a kind of "canned" water, just as, for example, aluminum, for the production of which requires a huge amount of electricity - is largely "canned electricity". Not surprisingly, the rise in food prices in 2010 was the fuse for the crisis in Egypt. For him, the biggest importer of wheat in the world, food inflation hits hardest. Incidentally, the first bell rang for Mubarak in August last year, when Russia announced an embargo on wheat exports after the summer fires. Even then, the government in a state of quiet panic, fearing a repetition of food riots in 2007 and finding money to buy expensive French and Canadian wheat. The reality, however, surpassed all expectations - Mubarak had still to go. Of course, the fall of the regime is not only to economic and demographic factors, fatigue, Society of corruption and rule unchallenged Rice played a role. Egypt is experiencing Malthusian crisis in the acute phase, and its intensity will grow in any scenario. Last year there was also another problem - providing Egypt with water in the long term, which is in jeopardy signed in May 2010, the Upper Nile countries (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda), a new agreement on the use of resources of the Nile. According to the old, yet the colonial treaties in 1929, Egypt and Sudan received 90% of Nile water resources. If before the country in the Nile put up with it, but now they are experiencing increasing demographic pressure and want to use water for irrigation and hydropower construction. In fact, antiegipetskoe and antisudanskoe agreement signed in May, brings the base for these claims. A similar set of economic, demographic and environmental challenges in different intensities and experiencing other countries in the Middle East and North Africa, it is obvious that this whole region is included in the phase of the permanent political instability. The most alarming Malthusian dynamics shows now Yemen, is also experiencing a baby boom on the background of depletion of vital resources - water. Water in the capital Sana'a, Yemen (which, incidentally, is a World Heritage Site), there will not be - to find it recently drilled wells at two kilometers inland (the technology used for oil production), but the attempt failed. In the worst case, or it will be necessary to build a water pipeline from the desalination plants on the coast to Sana'a, the capital of a transfer to another location. None of the options for saving the poor Yemen is no money. Meanwhile, "the Egyptian" scenario in Yemen could destabilize neighboring Saudi Arabia and other strategically important countries in the Persian Gulf. * Nefedov, SA (2007). "The concept of demographic cycles." - Ekaterinburg: Publisher UGGU; Turchin, P. and Korotayev A. (2006). "Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration", Social Evolution & History 5 (2): 112-147. ** Diamond, Jared (2005). «Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed», Allen Lane, London. *** Hoekstra, A.Y. (2003) (ed). «Virtual water trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade» Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands.