The Russian business continues to be cautious

The Russian economy continues to recover slowly. A market index of "Finance." Grew up to 2010 by 28.8 points to 397.2 level, industrial production - by 10 points to 141.4. External gloss. Formally, the most basic parameters of the domestic economy on the rise: freight transport, investment in fixed assets, turnover of retail trade, real disposable incomes of the population - all of these components KIF increased during the year. And restored public confidence in banks: an indicator that reflects the volume of deposits increased by 148.1 points, and significantly exceeded pre-crisis levels. The main growth in these indicators fell for the second half, reflecting thus a gradual acceleration of the pace of recovery. In particular, the index of turnover in the last two months of last year rose by 2.8 points versus 1.7 points for the year as a whole. The situation is similar to real incomes. Their increase in November - December, also exceeded the overall dynamics of the year. Improved financial condition and industrial companies. CIF component, which reflects the proportion of enterprises in 'good' and 'normal' financial condition, for the year grew by 19.5 of paragraph. Against this backdrop has improved and the dynamics of investment in fixed assets. Only in November - December, the growth of this component of the index was 8.8 of paragraph, and for the whole year - 28.9 points. Doubts remain. However, such a pronounced upward dynamics has not yet been able to convince local companies in the fact that the crisis was past, and they continue to be cautious. The index of entrepreneurial confidence, calculated by market research Centre of the HSE (ZKI) in the polls, is still in negative territory. According to research by the Economic Policy Institute named Yegor Gaidar (IEP), despite the positive dynamics of the issue, most of the real sector at the end of last year continued to look for new staff is not, and the ability to reduce an existing one. Among the industries of the positive employment trends can speak only two - the steel industry and "pischevke." Another symptom is persistent doubt companies can be seen in their assessments of the situation with supplies of finished products. Polls have shown IEP that domestic companies in the last months of last year changed their policy: they minimize the work in the warehouse in order to reduce potential risks associated with the sale. The response of stock "underweight" was 17%, and "above normal" - 9%. The latter value was the absolute minimum for all 18 years of monitoring. In addition, polls show that a sufficiently short horizon forecasting demand in the industry. In the last five months of last year, growth in demand has remained unchanged: the proportion of reported sales growth is balanced by reports of their shares decline. Estimates of backlog of orders decreased in time and not going out into the positive region. Thus, over the last two months of 2010, the corresponding index fell by 5.2 points. The decline in the dynamics of order and recorded interviews ZKI. The most significant limitation to the organizations surveyed is "insufficient demand for the products within the country" - so said 47% of respondents. No wonder the average level of capacity utilization is held the last six months at 61%, and in the coming months, according to 80% of respondents, will be sufficient to meet anticipated demand. It should be noted that the cautious expectations are not limited to companies in the real sector. Last year, lending and has not returned to pre-crisis levels, reflecting the lingering doubts of bankers in the current dynamics of growth. CIF component, which tracks investments of credit institutions in the economy, declined for the year by 59.3 points to 865.7 level. And it happened against a background of fairly intensive inflow of export earnings in the country. The price index for crude oil Urals rose last year by 94.6 points and became the second most important factor in improving the overall situation of market. ZKI survey showed that the sources of investment financing for most businesses (86%) have their own funds. Key for capital investments continued to be export-oriented production, which was basically replacing worn-out machinery and equipment. This was indicated by 67%. Forecasts and estimates. Probably quite a mixed picture of economic recovery will continue and continue. In general, the market situation in Russia will improve, but obviously not at the rate expected by the company. According to forecasts, opportunistic index, "Finance." Will be the beginning of March 408.3 points, the index of industrial production - 148.5 points. Components of the index opportunistic "Finance.", January 1995 = 100 Indices Values ​​on 01/01/11, 01/11/10 at points Values, a change in the items for 2 months, points to the contribution of KIF, point values ​​of 01.01.10, Changes in items 12 months, the contribution to the CIF items, items Indices supply (production) Freight turnover 144.3 141.5 142.6 2.8 0.31 1.7 0.19 Investment in fixed assets 247.8 239 0 8.8 0.97 218.9 28.9 3.18 Unemployed (reciprocal) 105.6 105.4 0.2 0.02 91.0 14.6 1, 46 Share of enterprises in 'good' and 'normal' financial condition 224.4 222.7 204.9 1.7 0.17 19.5 1.95 85.3 backlog of orders index 90.5 -5 2 -0.16 81.5 3.8 0.11 1.31 Contribution to CIF 6.89 Indicators of demand for retail trade turnover 265.9 264.2 1.7 0.19 257.5 + 0.92 8.4 Real disposable money income 202.5 196.6 5.9 0.65 197.2 5.3 0.58 Lending to the economy 865.7 854.2 +11 5 +1.46 925.0 -59.3 -6.52 Deposits of banks in 1041.5 1015.9 25.6 3.02 893.4 148.1 16.29 Prices for Urals crude 535 9 488.0 47.9 6.27 441.3 94.6 10.64 11.59 Contribution to CIF 21.91 A market index of "Finance." 397.2 384.3 12, 9 368.4 28.8 Industrial Production Index 141.4 137.7 +3.7 131.4 +10.0 Sources: IE RAS, EW All components of the index subject to seasonal adjustment, and the index of industrial production - and also the calendar be adjusted.