What will happen to the markets in March and April?

One of the key events will be the next financial summit G20, although experts warn against, and the associated high expectations. Along with the external news background essential internal. For example, will have an effect of such seasonal factors as the annual shareholders' meeting, where decisions are made on the payment (or nonpayment) of dividends. Surprises can not be expected: a period of heavy debt load is usually high - in these circumstances, be generous to shareholders is unreasonable. Another thing that hardly venture to wash out the majority owner of its shares on the next ballot, denying payments to holders of "preferred shares". The search for the proverbial "safe harbor" lead investors to the eternal values ​​- noble metals. Accordingly, the support may get paper and gold miners. Apparently, now if something and buy something only a select few "history." Ilya Fedotov, Head of Equity Research IR "Veles Capital": - waiting for something extraordinary to occur. To market remains under pressure negative external background and concerns about the prospects of the global economy. This in turn affects the cost of energy - Russia's main export commodities, determining the economic situation in the country. As long as this does not happen any improvements, the indexes will remain at levels five years ago. In March - April is traditionally the company preparing to meeting of shareholders and announce the expected dividend payments by year-end. Apparently, this time the numbers of investors are not happy. Many issuers have already said they will reduce the payments on the previous period or even abandon them. The publication of these reports leads to an additional negative impact on the quotation of ordinary shares in the risk zone in the first state-owned companies. Meanwhile, owners of "preferred shares" in a better position. Unlikely to agree to majoritarian wash their shares, giving the holders of preferred shares entitled to vote as a result of non-payment of dividends. And given the current price levels forecast dividend yield of most "preferred shares" is 20-30%, which may spur their growth. Of particular interest are papers look the telecommunications sector. Yuri Kudryavtsev, senior analyst at DB "GLENIC": - The crisis that began in the United States with problems in the mortgage market spilled over into the real economy in the world. As long as we have seen only isolated cases of failures, mainly affecting the financial services companies. But after one of the industry begins to experience serious the whole economy. For our country has been and remains the basic income from the sale of oil and gas. Falling world energy prices forces the government to adjust not only the budget but also the long-term plans. In the absence of their own news and ideas of Russian indices in March and April will follow the trends prevailing in the world's leading venues, that is likely to continue to move down. Possible to reduce the majority of quotations of securities for another 7-10%. The expected value of the MICEX index at the end of the period - 500-550 points. Most likely, the market will look better than stocks of companies producing and exporting energy resources ("Gazprom", "Rosneft", "Lukoil"). And in search of safe haven, because of instability in the foreign exchange sector, investors have turned their eyes on gold paper and its miners ("Polyus Gold", "Polymetal"). Alexander Ivanishchev, head of analytical department of FC "Infina": - The Information Agenda for March-April, broadly understood: all the attention will be focused on external factors. A key event will be a meeting on April 2 in London, leaders of G20, dedicated to the elaboration of collective action to overcome the crisis. Geopolitical component in these conditions may come to the fore, blocking economic issues, despite the severity of problems. Predict the outcome of the summit, we do not undertake, but some investors binds with high expectations. Development of important decisions must be preceded by active preparations at the level of financial institutions, but nothing like this is not observed, except for the contacts between China and the U.S.. Much depends on the compromise, which will come (or can not come), the main creditor and debtor. America is at the epicenter of the crisis because it is interested in internationalization. Problems in the banking sector, automotive and real estate could be exacerbated with a bang in March, which creates a very negative background for a meeting in London. Intrigue and reinforces the fact that in late April due to expire on the first 100 days of Barack Obama as U.S. President. Markets suited to the critical point, which carries a high risk of uncertainty and the possibility of new development options. Conservative investors better watch from the sidelines, and risky players - to act on the situation. Maria Kalvarskaya, Head of Equity Research IB "KIT Finance": - The RTS index is likely to fluctuate in the range of 450-700 points. Dynamics of the Russian market is in line with trends in major world stock markets. Fears of further deepening of the recession may outweigh the temptation to buy depreciating assets heavily. Support for the shares would have a positive dynamics of commodity production and stabilization in the financial sector, but hardly possible in the coming months. Thus, we do not expect the formation of the upward trend, the more likely a rather sharp fluctuations in exchange indicators in both directions. In this case the market will regain some 'history', primarily related to the closure of the register of shareholders to participate in annual meetings and receive dividends in 2008. Likely increase in activity in the securities of regional telecom, as well as preferred shares with the highest dividend yield (some RTOs, MTS, "Surgutneftegaz", Sberbank, Ursa-Bank). The April publication of the annual accounts of companies will also lead to some increase in the interest of players. But the more attention they will pay the current news and forecast for the near future, and not ended up period. Anton Startsev, a senior analyst IF "Olma": - Technical research shows that the RTS index maintained a downward trend, as well as by many international stock indicators. The pessimistic scenario assumes that its output in the range of 300-400 points in one to two months. Meanwhile, the increased volatility decreases the reliability of any predictions. Support for Russian stocks may have a decision of boards of directors of companies with respect to the size of the proposed dividend for 2008. In most cases, the date of fixing the registry to participate in shareholder meetings and receive payments scheduled for March-May. Investors at this point would prefer to have in stock portfolios that promise high dividend yield. According to our estimates, this criterion is met preferred securities of "Surgutneftegaz", "Tatneft", as well as common shares of MTS. Signals of strong movements of futures for Brent crude oil is not supplied, which contributes to some reduction in dependence on the Russian stock prices for energy. However, traders have to remember about this close connection, if the commodity sector to move. The reason may be OPEC's decision on the volume of oil supplies. Let me remind you that a meeting of countries participating in the cartel is scheduled for March 15. Andrey Kuznetsov, an analyst at Strategy "Troika Dialog": - In the short term, the most serious threat to the Russian stock market are the crises in Eastern Europe. Countries in this region support the enormous current account deficit as high as 25% of GDP (in Latvia, Bulgaria). Population, the government and companies have accumulated significant debt, mostly in foreign currency. The most popular loans in low-income currencies. For example, in Poland 60% of consumer loans were issued in Swiss francs, to which the Polish zloty has fallen by half since the crisis began. Inability to finance the current account deficit causes the government to resort to devaluation. This in turn affects the creditworthiness of borrowers to foreign currency liabilities. The banking systems of many countries are on the verge of collapse. Than it threatens the Russian market? A large part of domestic buyers of securities - assets of the region EMEA. As a result of the impending collapse, they face the outflow of funds and be forced to sell, including Russian stocks. In addition, some investors do not make a clear distinction between Russia and Eastern Europe, so afraid of in this country the same problems. But the Russian economy, despite all the difficulties, it is much more stable. The weakness of shares due to fears about the problems of Eastern Europe would be temporary. It will provide opportunities for more profitable entry.