How wrong analysts

"F." reconsider old "analytic strategy" - comprehensive annual forecasts on macroeconomics and markets of the five investment banks. Of each multi-view, we tried to isolate a few clear precepts. If analysts have described several scenarios, we relied on the base. For greater clarity, we have invented a kind of indicator guessable. When his calculations took into account three specific indicators: the annual dynamics of Russia's GDP, the value of the RTS index at the end of the period and the average annual cost of oil. For each component be allocated 2 points if the forecast is at odds with the reality of less than 10% (figure himself, in this case is highlighted in green). The discrepancy of 10-20% gave a score (blue), otherwise nothing will be allocated (red). If there was no investment bank forecast on at least one of the options that we did not give him an assessment. The green arrow indicates that the analysts came close to the truth, gaining 5-6, the red - that overshot (1-2 points), blue - that they were right in part (3-4). 2007-D: a year faded oil forecast, "Renaissance Capital" offers a romantic engraving represents, according to the authors, the impending restructuring of the private sector. Bank of Moscow. The baseline scenario came from the weakness of the U.S. economy in the first half (the discount rate could be reduced from 5.25 to 5%) and recovery in the second. Sector preferences were given to the stock market of mobile communication, banks, steel industry and power generation. As for the primary sector, the strategy came with the characteristic title "Russia is not just oil." RTS - Oil 2160 points - $ 60 (Urals) GDP - 7% Equity-favorite: "System", "Tatneft", "Ufaneftekhim" MTS "Severstal", RAO "UES of Russia" NLMK "Troika Dialog". Money market rates in real terms can go into positive territory, it is somewhat slow the rise in stock indexes. Investors should be particularly interested in electricity and gas, banks and retailers. RTS - Oil 2040 points - $ 55 (Urals) GDP - 6% Equity-favorite "Glavmosstroy", "Krasnoyarskenergo", "Irkutskenergo", "Sverdlovenergo", "Akron", RAO "UES of Russia", "System" " TKB Capital. " Likely to stabilize or even a small correction in oil prices, analysts wrote then, "KIT Finance". Fed maximum twice a year will reduce the rate to 4.75%, inflation in Russia is 8,5-8,8%. One of the key drivers of growth can be general market share in the consumer sector. RTS Index - 2350 points Oil - $ 56 (Urals) GDP - 6.4% Equity-favorite: "Surgutneftegas", "Severstal", "Norilsk Nickel", "The Seventh Continent", "Power Machines", Vyksa Metallurgical Plant, "Mechel "" Aton ". As colleagues in the Bank of Moscow analysts "Aton-Line" bound preserving the upward trend with an increase in the RTS capitalization of non-primary sectors. The Russian economy, in contrast to the global slowdown is not threatened, they said. And with "KIT Finance" predicted oil prices a period of relative stability. Rates are offered to share power, banks, potrebsektora. RTS Index - 2470 Oil items - $ 60 (WTI) Equity-favorites, "Norilsk Nickel" OGK-4 OGK-2, Sberbank, OGK-5 OAO RAO "UES of Russia", "Rosneft", "Renaissance Capital". Of political risk has been paid more attention, than in the reviews of other teams. The uncertainty of the succession in the course could lead to sharp fluctuations in the index, especially in the first half, feared the "Renaissance." But on the whole year opened a "bright prospects" for Russia, which was waiting for "a dizzying speed and depth of change." RTS - 2500 points-Shares favorites: "Surgutneftegas", "Dalsvyaz", Sberbank, "Baltic", TMK, "Wimm-Bill-Dann", "Magnet" in fact. Oil and gas sector actually lost on the stock exchanges for other industries. And most of all among the blue-chip stocks rose and the mobile operators, "Norilsk Nickel". Well grown gold and oil. In the autumn the Fed lowered the discount rate to 4.25%, against this background that the RTS index went from a long outset. Inflation was 11.9%. The political factor clearly manifested after the victory of the ruling party in elections to the Duma, which supported the indices. RTS - 2291 item (19%) Oil - $ 69 (Urals) GDP - 8.5% Gainers: "Uralkali", "Raspadskaya", "Belgorodenergo", "Mechel", "Silvinit." Worst: "Surgutneftegas" (AP), "Chitaenergo", "Uralsib" The year 2008: a sudden turn for the Bank of Moscow has chosen its forecast graphic, which predicted the near future much more accurately than the text itself. Bank of Moscow. National economic growth will slow slightly, the Russian market can go sideways. Inflation will decrease to 10% and the ruble strengthened to a basket of 1%. World Bank will continue lowering rates, the probability of full-blown recession in the U.S. is estimated at 50%. The stabilization of the dollar will cool the oil market. RTS Index - 2544 points Oil - $ 67 (Urals) GDP - 6.7% Equity-favorites: RAO "UES of Russia", "Lukoil", "Gazprom", paper Bashkir fuel and energy complex, "Dalsvyaz" CZP, UTC "Troika Dialog ". A powerful wave of growth can take a ride after the presidential election. In the pessimistic scenario, the RTS index will remain at the level of 2200 points. Russia does not depend on external finance, macroeconomics is stable, so the ruble out of danger. The credit crisis could cause damage to banks for short term, but not terrible system as a whole. The RTS index - 2,800 points Oil - $ 70 (Urals) GDP - 6.5% Equity-favorites: WGC-2, IBS, «Ephesus," "System", RAO "UES of Russia", "Cherkizovo" RTM "TKB Capital ". This review describes three scenarios - from a "good" to "could not be better." The first involves the worsening economic situation in the U.S. and short-term reduction of the RTS index by 1600 points to the return in the range of 1900-2000 year-end. The ruble could become stronger by 2% against the basket, the dollar at the end of the year would cost 24,4-24,7 rate. RTS - Oil 1950 points - $ 80 (Brent) GDP - 7% Equity-favorite: "Revival" (AP), "Rosneft", "VolgaTelecom" (AP), Sberbank (AP ), RAO "UES of Russia" (AP), TGC-13 "Surgutneftegas" (AP) "Aton". Like the "TKB Capital", the company has considered three scenarios. According to the pessimistic, the RTS index would have grown by 8%, and the best-and most likely - at 40%. Rubles per year was supposed to strengthen or remain stable, inflation - fell to 10.8%. Barrel could exceed $ 100, but only for a short time. The RTS index - 3,200 points Oil - $ 83 (WTI) GDP - 7.5% Equity-favorites, "Geophys-Tyumennefte - zi - ka ',' Gazpromgeofizika", "Bashkir-petroleum", "Bashneft-geophysical-zi -ka ',' Yamalgeofizika "-" Krasnoyarsknefteproduct ", RAO" UES of Russia "," Renaissance Capital ". The Russian stock market - on the verge of a major positive revaluation, analysts happy. The relative prosperity of Russia will provide her an influx of public and private investment from outside, that the growth of market values ​​of assets will resemble the inflated bladder. In the United States will go down in history problem mortgages and the consequent debt crisis in the sector. RTS - 3000 points-Shares favorites: Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant, "Silvinit", "Gazprom", "Razgulay," TMC, "Magnet", Sberbank actually. Stampede of investors from the risk of landslide caused by quotations around the world. The Russian market has suffered more than others. Oil prices approached $ 150 in May - June, but finished the second half at at $ 45. Cooling of the global economy has reduced demand for other commodity assets. By the end of December, currency basket has risen to 34.8 rubles-la, the dollar - to 29.4 rubles, while the average for the year, it cost 24.9 rubles. Inflation reached 13.3%, the Central Bank rate - 13%. RTS - 632 points (-72%) Oil - $ 94 (Urals) GDP - 5.2% Gainers: "Novosibirskenergo", Trans-Volga Motor Plant, Tula Retail Company Worst: "36.6 "RTM, PIK," Armada "year 2009: a low base forecast," Renaissance Capital "offers a romantic engraving represents, according to the authors, the impending restructuring of the private sector. Bank of Moscow. The real economy is close to the lowest point of a cyclical downturn and will move up, and the stock market has already passed this point, analysts had hoped. The global credit market will recover by mid-year. In Russia, the state will have to actively stimulate the economy. The average annual dollar amount to 30 rubles, the worst case scenario - 35 rubles, inflation will not fall below 10%. Gold will cost on average $ 750 per ounce. Better than other sectors of the devaluation and falling demand will survive power engineering, potash workers, pharmaceutical manufacturers and retailers. RTS - Oil 1127 points - $ 60 (Urals) GDP - 2.5% Equity-favorites, "Raspadskaya», X5 Retail Group, «Uralkali", "Novatek", "Severstal", Sberbank, "Gazprom Neft" "Three Dialogue ". World economic growth is hardly exceeds 3%, but the beginning of a protracted depression is unlikely. The stock market reaches a minimum only shortly before the end of the recession, that is, in the third quarter, year-end players are optimistic. Long-term investors at the beginning of the year should buy a stock and eurobonds. The devaluation of the ruble is inevitable and in some other Eastern European countries will take place the sharp fall of currencies. RTS - Oil 1,000 points - 55 $ (Urals) GDP - 5% Equity-favorites, "Novatek», Peter Hambro Mining, the Savings Bank, MTS, "Uralkali", "Magnet", "RusHydro" "TCB Capital ". Year 2009 promises to be a year of unique opportunity, investors should calm down and go to market. Stocks may fall even further along with oil prices, but they also come out in plus by year end. Drivers will perform in the main blue chips, better than other industries will feel telecom and electrical energy. Favourites commodity commodities - agricultural assets, particularly corn, will be held weaker metals. The economy likely recession is almost inevitable devaluation of the ruble and the emergence of the budget deficit to 3.3% of GDP. RTS - Oil 1,100 points - 65 $ (Urals) GDP - 0% Equity-favorite: "Sibirtelecom" (AP), "Sibirtelecom", "Gazprom", "VolgaTelecom" (AP), "VolgaTelecom "" Archive "," Uralsvyazinform "(AP)" Aton ". The U.S. economy even worse, continue the bankruptcy of banks and companies in the real sector. The RTS index in the first half will fall to 250-350 points, then rise, but the low trading volumes. Failure gives way to enthusiasm, and likely in the oil market. But for gold there is no alternative but to increase up to $ 1,500 per troy ounce, which will be reflected on paper the miners. One of the most lucrative stock strategies will play on industry ideas. For example, the market overestimates the problem of metallurgists. The outsider will make the banking sector. RTS - Oil 1115 points - $ 60 (WTI) GDP - 2.5% Equity-favorites, "Rosneft", "Lukoil", "Polyus Gold", "RusHydro" MTS "Uralsvyazinform", "Magnet", "Renaissance Capital ". Emerging markets respond to strong growth allocation of liquidity to deal with the crisis, Russia's assets may be vy-TI leaders, especially the blue chips. Good prospects for major oil and gas producers and - strong representatives of the consumer sector, banks is still a tough year. Restoring economic growth will not begin before the third quarter, but will go fast. Abroad, the dollar will weaken and thus can remain stable against the ruble, which is cheaper against the currency basket. RTS - 1100 points GDP - 4% Stocks-minions including MTS, "VimpelCom", "Gazprom", "Rosneft», «Lukoil», Evraz Group, TMC actually. Hopes of a rapid economic recovery did not materialize, although the Russian market and became a leader in the rate of grown-ta. The indices were drawn up in March. Distinguished themselves shares of retailers, steelmakers, IRAs and the WGC. Behind such powerhouses as "Gazprom", "Lukoil", and ordinary paper "Surgut" (among sectoral indices showed the dynamics of the worst oil and gas). The average price of gold was $ 974 an ounce, the dollar in Russia - 31.8 rubles-la, the currency basket - 37.4 rubles. Inflation fell to 8.8%, the budget deficit reached 5.9% of GDP. The process ended with the devaluation in the first half, the Central Bank has consistently reduced the refinancing rate, bringing it to 8.75%. The Fed kept the minimum rates all year round. RTS Index - 1445 points (129%) Oil - $ 61 (Urals) GDP - -7.8% Gainers: "Armada", "Bashneft", Sberbank (AP), "IDC Holding" (a.p ..) Worst: TGC-2, "System-tack" CZP 2010 is: breathe evenly Bank of Moscow for his prediction has chosen illustration, which predicted the near future much more accurately than the text itself. Bank of Moscow. The world economy will surely recover, but will not reach pre-crisis levels. The dollar will remain weak, commodity prices - high. If the Fed starts raising rates, and then not before autumn. Inflationary fears at some point lead to a correction in world stock markets (most in the spring). Dollar close to 27.5 ruble, inflation will decrease to a record 5.5%. The main driver for the RTS index may make shares of "Gazprom". The debt market rates continue to fall. RTS - 1,800 Oil - $ 78 (Urals) GDP - 7% Equity-favorite: "Raspadskaya" FGC "Novatek", "Severstal», Evraz Group, «IDC Holding", "Gazprom", "Troika Dialog" . Inflation will decrease to 9%, the Central Bank's refinancing rate - up to 7%, on average, the dollar will cost 29 rubles. Slowing inflation will support the quotes. Show the best dynamics, focused on the domestic market, as well as shares have fallen behind other papers of its sectors. The basic scenario is the slow recovery of U.S. economy, which continues capital inflows to developing regions, while interest rates remain low. RTS - Oil 2000 points - $ 70 (Urals) GDP - 5% Equity-favorites: Sberbank, X5 Retail Group, «Wimm-Bill-Dann", "Pharmstandard", "Comstar UTS", MTS, Petropavlovsk «TKB Capital ". Prices for raw materials used, Udut stable, while interest rates - low. The world economy will slow recovery. In Russia, Dr. ollar will cost an average of 29 rubles, inflation drops to 7.9%. C-B n-e-resmotrit refinancing rate to 7-7.5% in the interbank short-term loans will cost 3-5% per annum. Russia give way to other countries in the rate of recovery of the GDP. The RTS index might reach 1,650 points before mid-summer due to excess liquidity in the second half will come to the fore the fundamental parameters and correction is not excluded. RTS Index - 1775 points Oil - $ 74 (Urals) GDP - 3.4% Equity-favorites, "Rosneft", "Novatek" CMI "VimpelCom" WGC-4 "Magnet" Sberbank "Aton". Investors will be focusing on the two-centered ideas - the restoration of the Russian economy and the rapid development of Asian countries. Therefore, you should buy stocks of companies that benefit from any increase in domestic demand (the banks, retailers, energy, automobile manufacturers), or benefit from galloping economic growth in Asia, which possesses a significant increase in the cost of commodities. Increase in the rate of GDP, Russia yield only China and India, inflation will fall to 8%, the dollar will be worth an average of 30.6 rubles. Oil - $ 73 (Urals) GDP - 5.8% Equity-favorite: "Uralkali", "Silvinit" (AP), "Renaissance", Sberbank, "IDC Holding", "MRSC of Urals", "Magnet" "Renaissance Capital". The economy expects a strong recovery. Reduced rates will help to expand lending operations. The average dollar amount to 28.4 ruble, inflation decreased to 6.3%, the budget deficit will reach 5.4% of GDP. The stock market, preference should be given to representatives of the steel industry, some retailers, the companies that benefit as a result of restructuring or reform of the industry and, perhaps, the producers of fertilizers. Future leaders of growth - among the less liquid stocks. RTS - Oil 1900 points - $ 70 (Brent) GDP - 4.2% Equity-favorites, "Tatneft", "North-West Telecom", "Synergy", "IDC Holding" CMI "Lukoil", "Uralkali "You really do. Was the year of global economic recovery, but the major contribution made by Asia and Latin America. Russia sharply slowed down compared to the end of 2009. The Fed did not revise the refinancing rate, and the Central Bank to cut its 7.75%. Exchanges occurred in May of correction, until the fall of the dynamics of the RTS index has been understated by the end of the year on the market prevail "bulls." Most of all stocks rose in the consumer sector, the worst result, as in 2007 - a petroleum tegazovyh "chips". Inflation fell to 8.8%, the budget deficit - to 3.3% of GDP, the dollar gave an average of 30.4 rubles. Value of the dollar and the currency basket for the year has changed slightly. Product market shot silver, palladium, and cotton. RTS Index - 1770 points (23%) Oil - $ 78 (Urals) GDP - 4.0% Gainers: Krasnoyarsk hydroelectric station, "Rostik" Nizhnekamskneftekhim (AP), "Wimm-Bill-Dann." Worst: "Sitronics", "36.6", "Gazprom oil»