Who will buy "Raspadskaya»

When communicating with investors Evraz Group has long stated a desire to part with the package in the "Raspadskaya" to reduce its debt load (in the top 100 largest corporate debtor company is 8th). Debt, of course, in the current refinance easier than it was two years ago, but to pay the interest required. In this regard, Evraz Group is limited to investing in more immediate projects. Best at cost. Last week, "Raspadskaya" opened the program of development for 2011-2015. According to the plan voiced , mine management did not believe an accident that occurred last May, the factor of pressure on the operational and financial performance. While the fire in one of the reservoirs is continuing, and in another, flooding has not pumped water, "Raspadskaya" remains one of the most efficient producer of coking coal in the world. Capitalisation "Raspadskaya" February 28, slightly more than $ 6 billion, which is close to historical highs for the issuer. The stock market played a recession capitalization after just four months after the explosion of methane due to the excellent market conditions for coking coal and in spite of reduction in production to 7.2 million tons of coal against the previously planned 11 million tons. The main factor leading to higher fundamentals "Raspadskaya" as before, remains one of the lowest in the industry cost of coal and coal concentrate production. Thus, the average cost per tonne concentrate in the first 6 months of 2010 amounted to $ 23.9. The other major Russian producer of coking coal, "Mechel" - $ 27, while the "Belon" included in the CMI, the order of $ 60. "The latter result is comparable with the average cost Australia - $ 60-75, - the analyst, "Renaissance Capital" Boris Krasnozhenov. - I can not recall another coal company, where production is cheaper than the "Raspadskaya" - and certainly a low cost is not in the mines with underground " . The future growth of the cost of the concentrate is also small - on the strength of up to $ 30 per tonne by 2012. Although it is a cost to be incorporated compensation for the decrease in production due to an accident. But the production is so profitable, that management is not going to overdo it. Coal is more expensive. Another reason why the "Raspadskaya" in spite of what remains a very attractive asset for investment or purchase - that began in mid-2010 followed by an increase in steel prices and rising world prices for coking coal. Flooding in Australia has led the trend even further, because the flooded shafts provide up to 41% of global exports of coking coal. It is no wonder that from the beginning, world spot prices for this type of coal rose by 51% to $ 340 per ton. The Russian coal supplied as overseas and domestic market, also moved up . The price situation for the Russian coal industry during the coming year and possibly next, develops extremely favorable. Effective "Raspadskaya" take advantage of this to the fullest. "The company has announced to increase their selling prices in February by 8.5% to $ 153 per ton, - calculates the BCS analyst Oleg Peter and Paul. - subtract all the costs and see that the potential profit of about $ 100 per ton. " If the company will operate in accordance with the medium-term plan, only for the years 2011-2012, it can get more than $ 2 billion profit. During this period, "Rapadskoy" the conservative scenario, hoping to get 21.3 million tons. In all, 2016 - 71.6 million tons. This amount will not only be sufficient to eliminate the consequences of failure in the payment of all debts but also for further development. Total capital expenditure "Raspadskaya" planned for 2010-2015 in the amount of $ 1116 million capital investment in addition to the restoration of the affected mine (not counting the already disbursed, at least $ 100 million), is taken into account spending on the maintenance of production facilities and new construction and expansion of production. This cow is needed most? Because of this high level of konkurentosopobnosti, "Raspadskaya" for many investors is the issuer, the favorite. Since the accident, the company's shares on the RTS rose by almost 60% to $ 7.9 per share. Further advice Most investment companies - to "buy." "Such an asset may be of interest not only to domestic steel producers. sure, and not against foreign investors would buy it, given the growth in demand abroad for Russian coking coal, - said Alexander Puhaev of" VTB Capital " . - The question is, it is unlikely that management will soon get rid of "Raspadskaya." In connection with the accident, the company with such a potential $ 6 billion - is clearly undervalued asset. "So far, mine has not been restored, to sell at the current price does not make sense - estimate is worse than it could be ", - says Nick Sosnowski. In early 2009, foiled an attempt by the Evraz Group to negotiate with the management of the mine, led by Gennady Kozovoy to buy 40% stake. The scheme reminiscent of the recent" Transneft "and" The sum of the Capital "of the transaction on the absorption of the NCSP: first," Raspadskaya "was to acquire 100% of incoming and in Evraz Group« JUzhkuzbassuglja "and then bought the metals holdings to action" Raspadskaya "and became its principal owner. However, Gennady body wanted to keep parity over. He was also not satisfied with reduced profitability if "Raspadskaya" consolidated much less lucrative "Yuzhkuzbassugol." Management has demonstrated then that he would not leave an asset to the detriment of both their financial interests and the performance of the company. Thus, the potential the buyer, subject to the consent of current owners to negotiate must be prepared to pay market price. "I do not think of metallurgical enterprises have a player capable to put up their own or borrowed at least $ 6 billion", - said Nick Sosnowski. - Yes, and I do not see whether in such a purchase. "All in the matter. The majority of Russian metallurgical plants at the moment there are companies producing coking coal or deposits that are yet to be converted into a current asset. That, of course, requires significant investment. Evraz Group owns the license for Mezhegey field ( stocks of 213.5 million tons) and the section "Eastern" Western Ulug-Khem coal basin (569 million tons) in Tuva. This is a strategic investment projects in the future separated when the existing fields of depleted stocks of scarce fat-grade coal " F ". Nevertheless, at the stage of acquiring a license in 2009-2010 both fields were treated Evraz Group was 1.8 billion rubles." The group self-sufficiency in coking coal 100%, but in the Kuzbass deposits are exhausted - in a few years to move smoothly embers of Tuva "- said the source of" F. "in the company. Self-sufficiency in coal CMI, which owns 83% shares of" Belon "too high. With the" Raspadskaya "Steel gets only 12% of the coal marks" GJ "(gas rich). A after the final consolidation of "Belon" CMI intends to increase its capacity. Only in the 2011 investment program provides for 4.8 billion rubles. Russian steel output of "Severstal" provided coal for more than 90%, supplied by "Vorkutaugol," the company said. And Like other steel producers, "Severstal" has in reserve area "Central" in the Ulug-Khem deposit with reserves of 639 million tons. In September 2010, only buying the rights to develop metals holdings of the asset cost at 600 million rubles. "This is a very distant time horizon, it is necessary run the railroad, which could take another 25 billion rubles, "- said a source at the company." Mechel ", as the most integrated in the mining, also suffers from a shortage of coal. Neryungri Holding develops, and Kangalasskii Dzhebariki the Shanghai-field, he also owns the license for the biggest Elgin deposit in Yakutia. Although only a preparatory stage of its development will cost the company not less than $ 1 billion, it's worth it: Proved reserves of 2.7 billion tons, and looking - 30 billion tons. In other words, means potential buyers-metals holdings that could be spent on the purchase of "Raspadskaya" drawn on their own coal projects. In this sense, except for the NLMK, which the current self-sufficiency in coking coal - 0%. Cox supports coal. NLMK has a license to develop the coal fields - Zhernovsky-1 in the Kemerovo region (240 million tons of reserves, according to preliminary estimates starting in 2014) and Usinsk in the Komi Republic (227 million tons starting in 2018). After the launch of a new blast furnace, noted in the press NLMK service, the company's needs in the coal concentrate will be about 7 million tons.'s own coal mining and concentrate production from these fields will help to close to 80% of its needs. In addition to developing its own coal base on NLMK also plans to start assembling plants for blowing pulverized coal, which in term will reduce the demand for coal by 20-25%. But until then NLMK will have to buy on the side. We supply the "Raspadskaya" cover about 10% of its needs. Although, according to analysts' estimations BCS, power, "Raspadskaya" such that it could well provide NLMK coal of various grades of 100%. However, the critical situation can not be named: "The NLMK tremendously effective integration into iron ore and almost 200% integration of metallurgical coke due to the acquisition in 2006," Altai-Koks "- points to Boris Krasnozhenov. - Coke has spread to the coal is large enough, since the crisis of the battery was closed, and investment in Coke segment is carried out in sufficient amounts to restore the old batteries, or create a new industry - extremely expensive. " As a result, through sales to third parties NLMK coke can cover the costs associated with the need to buy coal. Even if the price for it will continue to grow for some time. But, of course, if NLMK has been integrated in the coal, he would become the most effective player in the world the steel industry. "Production would be a great synergy: the" Raspadskaya "- a guaranteed market, at NLMK - guaranteed supply of raw materials, - says Oleg Peter and Paul. - And if suddenly there would be an idea to expand the power of mine, then this is for NLMK funds do not involve third-party funding. "Without control is not needed." Integration in the coal is interesting, but mad money NLMK to pay for it will not, - said Boris Krasnozhenov. - Most wait until will run its own coal assets or there are less expensive to purchase assets . NLMK always had a conservative and well-balanced strategy in the field of mergers and acquisitions, because of what and maintained a leading position in the crisis. "Thus, NLMK found it necessary to incur serious losses in 2007, eliminating a $ 1 from acquired a year ago for $ 62 million" Prokopevskuglya "- mined coal there was a very high cost. Then Vladimir Lisin had not stopped even the costs incurred on debt for this company in the amount of 460 million rubles. Earlier in the interview to" F. "Russia's richest man, answering the question of reducing the dependence of NLMK foreign supplies of raw materials, said: "Firstly, it is impossible to be completely independent of the supply chain. Secondly, we have a strategy of vertical integration, and sooner or later it will be realized." wished to remain anonymous source in one of the investment companies believes that Vladimir Lisin may well make a deal, possibly involving multiple parties. But only with the control: no he can not consolidate its financial results nor on the level of EBITDA, nor at the level of profit. "The meaning of integration in the primary segment is consolidation of the majority when the new asset can be consolidated at the level of operating profit ", - said Boris Krasnozhenov.