How to reform Railways will come out of the impasse

The largest purchase of the great Warren Buffett's estimated $ 44 billion, is precisely the amount of fund Berkshire Hat-haway Inc. spent on acquiring 77.4% stake in the U.S. railroad company Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. in 2009. The question "why pay more in crisis," Warren Buffett said that it was from having an effective and well-maintained rail system depends on well-being of the country. "Invest in BNSF, Berkshire holds great hope for the company and the entire railway industry", - said the chairman of the board of directors Berkshire. Experts claim that the Russian stock market you can try to invest a la Buffett. Railways we have, and securities related to the industry, is sufficient for the formation of the railway portfolio now. Railway diversification. Compared with other industries, where the trading of about 20 large companies, the transport sector in the Russian stock market is presented poorly: only seven typed pieces worthy issuers. But the preconditions for the emergence of new tickers in a glass trader in the near future is. First, the transport needs funds for reconstruction and development, and budget money will not be able to meet this need - that is necessary to attract private capital. Second, the entry of new companies, observed in recent years - a strong incentive to enhance the transport theme of the Russian stock market. In addition, the investment idea itself - the development of the transport sector against the backdrop of upcoming sporting events worldwide - very tempting for a private investor. If we add to this the traditional reliability of infrastructure assets, it will simply cool. "International experience shows that the shares of transportation companies in times of crisis can be considered as a" safety paper ": they are longer resist the fall, and correction of them is slower than the shares of other sectors - explains the logic of Buffett's Head of Research Department" Investkafe "Dmitry Adamidov . - However, they are restored and longer. " Moreover, experts believe that it is the railway industry in the future be able to provide the full range of investor tools. Thus, the Railways now claims to be "safe harbor" by offering reliable bonds, and eventually may become a "blue chip". Stable second tier, or "growth stocks", is formed already in the securities freight companies ("Globaltrans," the group FESCO, «Transcontainer" and others). A risky high-yield stocks are able to offer a production service company. So far, the most interesting investment for investment analysts attribute the company engaged in freight transportation. Daughters grew up. At Head of Equity Bank, "TKB Capital" Mary Kalvarskaya have a favorite - stocks "TransContainer", which has been placed increased 1.5 times. Kalvarskaya explains the success of children of the relationship with the state, lowering the risks and limitations for development. But more important still high profitability of the business of cargo transportation. "Transportation of oil - a stable profitable business, work with metallurgists cyclic, but not less profitable in the current environment," - lists the best position "Transcontainer" Maria Kalvarskaya. If business brings good income, the factor 'daughter - not my daughter Railways "fades into the background. The analyst IFC "Metropol" Andrei Rozhkov favorite paper in the industry - the action "Globaltrans." The reason for this love - the tall fleet of trains and improve operational efficiency this year. "By the actions" Globaltrans' interest has always been, and it is stored - agrees Kalvarskaya. - Up until the market is trading shares in a limited amount of their assessment will be not quite fair: a small selection of securities restricts investment opportunities and reduce attention to the sector as a whole. " Therefore, the greater will be appearing shares in subsidiaries and private companies, the more attractive the industry will look like in the stock market. The same rule works for the siting of new companies by private subscription. "Sale of large blocks of shares strategy makes low liquidity - means for retail investors, they are less interesting - says Kalvarskaya. - But in the market there are "polustrategi" who are willing to buy shares, as measured by percentages, rather than tens of percent, and out of the market for corporate events. This strategy exists and brings a good income. " Adamidov of "Investkafe" also prefers paper "TransContainer", but not stocks, and bonds. Shares in his opinion, close to its fair valuation - this is evidenced by the consensus forecast of analysts, and technical analysis. But the bonds are very interesting as a protective tool. "Most issuers g / d industry may formally be considered as first-class borrowers - Adamidov happy. - How effectively (in its fundamentals), and formally they have simply not had time to get into debt! "Good turn deserves another. In the railway industry market debt actually looks more interesting than the stock market. There's even a mass todont as Railways, and is actively involved in domestic and foreign markets. "The ruble bond market Railways is classified high-borrowers, along with" Gazprom "and is a benchmark for other corporate issues - says the head of the analysis of fixed income instruments Gazprombank Alexei Dyomkin. - Issues of Railways, as a rule, interested investors who are not willing to take enough risk, but at the same time want to make money compared to buying government bonds or OFZ. This may be the big banks, pension funds, management companies, for which priority is quality credit risk. " Railways have now two Eurobond issues. One of them is unique in that is included in the index EMBI Global (Emerging Markets Bond Index Global) - this is an additional mark of quality for bonds of companies from emerging markets. Volume of issue - $ 1.5 billion repayment is scheduled in 2017, which allows the company is comfortable enough to manage their debt. This issue, according to Demkina may be considered for institutional investors as a good alternative to the sovereign issues of the Russian Federation. The second issue is denominated in sterling and, at first glance, "too long" for private capital - circulation period is slightly less than 20 years. But foreign investors are willing to give money to such term in June Railways were able to increase output in the treatment of 300 million to 650 million pounds. Specialists rating agencies argue that the Railways can not afford to have debt at 2,5-3 EBITDA. This corresponds to about 1-1.2 trillion rubles, or a company can safely take another 400-600 billion rubles. However, the senior vice president of RZD for Economics and Finance Vadim Mikhailov set up a more conservative, he believes that to increase the company's debt is not worth the size of the debt should not exceed 1,5-2 EBITDA. An example of reckless leverage capacity of up to 7 EBITDA - French and German railways. The state offered them money not to look for in the budget, and on the market, which is why after 15-20 years, the railways began having problems with debt servicing. Of particular interest, according to Demkina may be issues of subsidiaries and associated companies, which should offer investors more yield compared to the releases of Railways. In addition, market participants expect the emergence of infrastructure bonds, the proceeds of which are directed to specific projects. But it will all depend on who becomes the "anchor" investor, because it is important for private investors involved in the production of National Investment Funds. However, the December placement experience of the Criminal Code "Leader" of bonds, the proceeds of which were intended for the construction of toll roads, was considered a success: a book of applications was exceeded by 40% of the total allocation (which is, among other things, 7.2 billion rubles)! There is, to wash, to make money. However, even with the limited supply of securities from wanting to invest in the industry is always possible to apply the entrepreneurial talent in collaboration with the state monopoly. Understand the specifics of the railway at the same time it is not necessary: ​​reform of the sector and the withdrawal of non-core activities in outsourcing provides an opportunity to grab their piece of the pie and start a new business on the railroad tracks. A good example of cooperation between independent entrepreneurs and Railways may be considered a success story of Alexander Utkin and his company's "Master Cleaning". In 2001, when the bulky Ministry of Communications only getting in the way of reform, with like-minded Utkin, whose names he prefers not to name, supplying coal monopoly. Learning that the reform newly created Railways will give non-core services and cost of outsourcing, Utkin and his friends decided that the laundry for the passengers may be more lucrative. Having won the tender for about a third of the factories of point-great former ministry, Utkin decided to build a new business of revolutionary Russia but run-scheme in the West: the company Utkin "Master Cleaning" has offered no laundry Railways, and buy your own pillow cases and towels, store them in their warehouses and deliver their cars to long distance services. "For the rail holding such a scheme has been extremely profitable - it solved the problem of wear and exclude theft line staff, and most importantly - no need to buy and store tons of laundry in warehouses across Russia," - says one of the top managers of the Federal Passenger Company. The obvious advantage of Railways offers Utkin and has a numerical expression. If the monopoly until 2008, spending on maintenance of linen economy 14 billion rubles a year, then giving the laundry on the side - 10 billion benefit laundry company is also obvious. By investing in the modernization of the former Ministry of Railways received from factories, laundries about 3 billion rubles, only one 2010 revenue of "Master Cleaning" $ 6 billion. But to dwell on these terms "Master Cleaning" does not intend to, last year there was an association of "Master Cleaning" and "Rikvest-Service", the second volume of production and profit of the company engaged in the laundry for the Railways. Following the merger of two companies share the combined company will be the largest on the market: about 70% of the orders of Railway Workers. The combined company under the name "Cotton Way» (Cotton Way) has already started building a new modern facilities with capacity of 150 tons of laundry a day in the Kaluga region. Hopes not only to the government, but also on cooperation with Western companies. However, the latest industry business history, originating with the disappearance of the IPU and the emergence of joint-stock company "Russian railways", knows not only the success stories. Of high-profile examples - a joint project of the fashionable Moscow restaurateur Arkady Novikov and the Directorate of Railway Stations. In April 2009, the Railways has signed a cooperation agreement with a group of companies Novikova, in which experts restaurateur were to participate in the selection of network companies to work at the stations, as well as to control the quality of the offered food. But the project was in fact stillborn: the past with the signing of the contract 1.5 years for control subjects and did not appear. As it turned out, the culprit became legal and bureaucratic obstacles: literally, until recently, Railways had no right to provide space on their own stations by restaurants - all formally recess and spaces of buildings have been leased to private individuals. Solve legal incident has taken place in late May of this year. A restaurateur wants to continue working with the stations is not clear yet. Score capitalization companies whose shares Railways plans to sell * Company equity or net assets, rub. The ratio of valuation to net asset valuation, rub. PGA 86026681000 154 848 025 800 1.8 1.8 3.167 billion Refservis 5.7006 billion Zheldorremmash 15,451,259,000 27,812,266,200 1.8 4,239,382,000 1.8 7,630,887,600 Vagonremmash NHS 2,238,461,000 4,029,229,800 1.8 JSC "Petuhovsky LMZ" 254 175 000 728 594 000 1.8 457 515 000 MLZ 1.8 1,311,469,200 9,580,085,000 Railways operation- 1.8 121 685 637 000 219 034 146 600 Total 17,244,153,000 * The statements for the year 2009. Source: "Investkafe" DAUGHTER FOR SALE Plans OAO "RZD" for the sale of shares in subsidiaries: Company at a public auction of activity of JSC "Transcontainer" (in stages) Intermodal Container Shipping JSC "Freight One" Carriage of goods, transportation and logistics services JSC "Roszheldorproject" Construction, repair and reconstruction of railway, industrial, and commercial real estate of "Petuhovsky LMZ" Foundry-mechanical plant provides Railways parts and units for the rolling stock of OAO "Refservis" Shipment of perishable goods, "Pilot plant" Metalist-Remputmash "" Repair of track equipment, metal production JSC "Moscow MH" Red Road "," Manufacture of rolling stock, the production of vehicles for repair and maintenance of railways JSC "Barnaul VRZ 'overhaul of rolling stock and production of spare parts" Vladikavkaz Car Repair Plant . SM Kirov "Repair of coaches' Roslavl VRZ" Overhaul and repair depot tank cars of JSC "Saransk VRZ" Overhaul neftebenzinovyh dedicated tanks and OAO "Vologda VRZ" car repairs, maintenance and development of wheelsets, assembly of freight bogies Company "Eurasia Intertrans "Travel industry JSC" RT-DV "Design of buildings and structures, installation, commissioning, repair and maintenance of fire alarm system, smoke protection, lightning protection of" NIITKD "Development, production and introduction of new techniques and technologies in the enterprises of railway transport by private accommodate up to 50% minus two shares of Company Type of OAO "RZD-order" Transport construction, manufacture of precast concrete products and constructions of "Zheldorremmash" Repairs of locomotives, locomotive modernization, repair parts and assemblies, development of new repair technologies JSC "Novosibirsk Switch Plant" Release the arrow of products for railway main lines of "Railways" JSC "Vagonremmash" Repairs of wagons Source: OAO "RZD" Investment potential of the transport sector by 2030 (in 2011 prices) Type of transport public investments (infrastructure), trillion rubles. Business investment, trillion rubles. Railway 2.5 -10 03.12 Up to 1 Aviation Road Up to 1.5 Up to 10 0 Water Up to 2 Up to 2.5 Source: w / e Transport Assessment - Railways, for other modes of transport - "Investkafe"