Russian economy needs more oil, "doping»

A market index of "Finance." Grew from the beginning of the year by 16.5 points to 418.9, while industrial production added 0.9 and is now 142.9 points. All the troubles of recent months are associated with adverse sprosovoy situation in the industry. The results of business surveys are regularly conducted by Economic Policy Institute named Yegor Gaidar (IEP) indicated that in April, demand growth after removal of seasonality immediately fell by 7 percentage points, setting the anti-record of the last fifteen months. At the same minimum level reached and sales forecasts, which (also after treatment of seasonality) in early May dropped to 4 percentage points to 31 as recently as February. Change sprosovoy situation had a direct impact on the dynamics of orders, the value of stocks of finished products, as well as the parameters of production and employment. Index portfolio of orders rose in March - April, only 0.9 points. Started to grow and shed stocks of finished products. EPI surveys have shown that in April their volume increased by 1 point against the stable trend in the decline (-6 points) during the previous two quarters. If you look at the production parameters, the situation is also not happy. January and April this year were the worst in the last 12 months on the dynamics of changes in output. Options freight transport, on which to judge the situation in the most competitive industries also began to decline with the onset of spring. This component fell in March - April, by 1.1 points. The worse was developed and the dynamics of employment: the number of unemployed in the industry increased, and the rate of employment decreased. Lack of domestic demand. The sad thing to count on any significant change sprosovoy situation in the coming months is not necessary. All internal settings are far from ideal. At this cost, exports are unlikely to continue a rapid growth in the first months of 2011. Let's start with the domestic investment demand. The crisis in this area has not yet been completed. And not only that the values ​​of the indicators here are far from the baseline in 2008, so they are still falling. Indicator of investment in fixed assets fell in January - April of 27.8 points. The volume of construction works for the first quarter declined by nearly 17% versus the same period last year. At the same time worsen all the factors that could lead to a change in the situation in the field of investments. After a rapid rise in prices in the industry in the early years of the case at companies on average have gone worse. According to surveys IEP, assessing the financial condition of companies themselves declined in April to -13 points. Unfavorable dynamics and shows the lending industry. Since the beginning of the year component of KIF, reflecting credit investments in the economy, declined by 4.3 points. We now turn to the domestic consumer demand. Under conditions of high inflation dynamics, augmented rather contradictory situation with employment, real disposable incomes are reduced. The growth of consumer price index reached 4.3% in January - April compared to 3.5% a year earlier. Naturally, the revenue simply do not have time to make up for such inflation. From the beginning, an indicator of real disposable income fell by 5.2 points, while the last two months - by 1.9 points. Oil doping does not help. The only parameter of demand, which has formally been on the rise, - export. Due to the continuing instability in North Africa, Russia has fully enjoy favorable conditions in energy markets. In particular, the indicator price of Urals crude increased from year to date 179.1 points to 715. The only problem is, in the absence of qualitative changes in the structure of the industry to maintain the established parameters of demand and production economy requires more and more oil, "doping". Quite revealing the recent revision of the parameters of the Russian economy in the coming years. In comparison with the calculations made at the end of last year, most forecasts for the period from 2011 to 2014 the first oil expected value increased by $ 15-20 per barrel. However, the forecast GDP growth of this have not changed. Forecasts and estimates. Thus, the Russian economy is experiencing hard times. Key indicators of development or show a negative trend, or a minimal positive impact on the overall situation. And in the coming months it will likely only get worse. Indeed, the economic of uncertainty has not added soon enough, the political certainty associated with the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. Components opportunistic index, "Finance." Settlements, January 1995 = 100 Indices Values ​​on 05/01/11 03/01/11 Change Values ​​for over 2 months Contribution to CIF values ​​in 1.1.11 Changes in 4 months Contribution to CIF Indicators of supply (production) Freight turnover 147.3 148.4 146.3 -1.1 -0.12 1.0 0.11 Investment in fixed assets 212.0 218.0 -6.0 -0.66 239.8 -27.8 -3.06 Unemployment (reciprocal) 101.3 102.9 -1.6 -0.16 103.7 -2.4 -0.24 Proportion of businesses in a "good" and " normal 'financial condition 226.7 215.4 224.4 11.3 1.13 2.3 0.23 95.4 backlog of orders index 94.5 0.9 0.03 85.3 + 10.1 0.30 0.22 Contribution to CIF -2.66 Indicators Demand Retail trade 279.9 276.6 274.0 3.3 0.36 0.65 5.9 Real disposable cash income 192.1 194.0 -1.9 -0.21 197.3 -5.2 -0.57 Lending to the economy 882.5 878.9 3.6 0.40 886.8 - 4.3 -0.47 Deposits of banks in 1075.2 1076.8 -1.6 -0.18 1076.7 -1.5 -0.17 Oil prices Urals 715,0 606,6 +108,4 11.91 535.9 179.1 19.72 12.28 Contribution to CIF 19.16 A market index of "Finance." 418.9 406.4 +12.5 402.4 +16.5 Index Industrial 142.9 143.7 -0.8 142.0 +0.9 Sources: IE RAS, EW All components subjected to seasonally adjusted indices and the index of industrial production - and also adjust the calendar