What to expect from the markets in June - July

In the summer the situation with a new controlling owner "Raspadskaya" should be clarified, and this would impact positively on its quotations. The authors also forecast release paper NCSP - another outsider exchange in recent months. Port should win due to "premature" lifting of the embargo on the export of Russian grain. As for the most liquid stocks, then here are the high expectations associated with the Savings Bank which prepares the launch of the program of Global Depositary Receipts. This factor podogreet interest in the local. In general, the coming period promises to be not too good for stock markets, as the traditional summer slowdown punters side by side with ambiguous external background prevailing in early June. Catherine Andreyanov, analyst, "Rye, Man & Gor Securities": - In the near future should grow up action "of the Renaissance." In 2010, the bank's results were slightly worse than the industry average, but now it shows stable dynamics of the balance sheet. We expect that an increase in interest rates, the margin will increase, which has a positive impact on profitability. The conservative policy of "Renaissance" and a focus on reducing operating expenses and net income support. Since January, shares fell more than 30%, and we believe that investors now pay attention to these papers, especially since they traded with the ratio of market value of the bank's own capital at 1.5 against 2.4 in the Savings Bank and 1, 8 in "Saint Petersburg". Also, one of the interesting short-term ideas we associate with equity "Irkutskenergo". Until the end of the summer of 40 per cent stake in the company owned by the "Inter RAO UES", must be passed "RusHydro", which in this case would have made an offer to minority shareholders "Irkutskenergo". We expect that the price of the offer will be 25.33 rubles per share in accordance with the assessment that was used for the transfer of state in favor of "INTER RAO UES". At the same time "Irkutsk-power" only a relatively small percentage of shares (7%) is in free float. Therefore, all of the papers filed by minority shareholders, can be purchased at the offer. George Yeltsov, portfolio manager of the Criminal Code "Solid Management": - One of the most attractive stocks in the market are "Raspadskaya". Over time the company was surrounded by a negative background, the starting point was an accident at its main shaft. Since the beginning of this year, the paper also behaved worse than the market, mainly due to the possible sale of "Raspadskaya" "Mechel" at a discount to market capitalization. But after negotiations with the first bidder at an impasse, the company expressed interest in at least two new major players - "Severstal" and Gunvor. In early June, the paper "Raspadskaya" trading at a mark of 170 rubles ($ 4.7 billion for the entire "Raspadskaya"). According to available information, assess the property owners sell 80 percent stake in the $ 6 billion, which corresponds to 270 rubles per share. That is expected premium to market price in almost 60%. In our opinion, on such terms deal still unlikely - historically in such cases, the premium is around 30%. However, due to unfavorable conditions in the markets is a logical further significant reduction in premiums. We focus on the level of 25%, which corresponded to the share price at about 210 rubles. In the consumer sector, we identify the protective paper "Magnet" with good prospects in view of the fundamental attractiveness of the retailer. Andrew Zokin, chief investment officer of the Criminal Code "Gazprombank UA ': - Among the issuers that have significant growth potential in the coming months, we can distinguish its subsidiaries," Mechel Mining "-" Southern Kuzbass "and Korshunov Mining Plant (KGOK). As of September - October IPO scheduled Ore Division "Mechel". As we approach the transaction interest of investors in securities of its "daughters", which are available on the open market will increase. From our point of view, the two stocks have a long-term growth potential of at least 100-150%, and in June - July we expect to increase their value by 10-15%. Another interesting issuer is NCSP. All the negative news about the deterioration of its financial results have already been fully accounted for in quotes. Following the recent decision by the Russian authorities to lift the embargo on grain exports abroad NCSP figures, one of the major ports for export of these products should be seriously improved. Taking into account the existing undervaluation in the market will lead to increased demand for its shares. We assume that the end of July quotes NCSP increase in the order of 15-17%. Despite the fact that individual stocks can be added to the price in the near future, in general, we expect volatility in the stock market dominated by lateral movement of stock indices. Sergey Grigoryan, head of investment department of the Criminal Code "Pioneer Investment Management": - Investors should pay attention to the power sector, which since the beginning of the year shows the dynamics considerably worse than the market. This is largely due to the intention of the Russian government to limit the rise in electricity prices. Due to a drop in prices there are good opportunities to buy shares in individual companies. Take, for example, OGK-4. Exclusion of securities from the MSCI family of indices put additional pressure on the quotes, which are significantly reduced from a recent peak. OGK-4 is now trading at a discount to most companies in the sector of financial multiples 2011-2012. By themselves, its shares also look cheap. At the same time, OGK-4 one of the best facilities in the thermal generation of a foreign principal shareholder, a very efficient cost control and cash flow positive since 2011. EBITDA margin it exceeds 35%. All this reduces the risks of financial indicators related to government intervention in the pricing policy of Power. In our assessment, at risk of 10-12% gross profit margin of OGK-4, and it is already embedded in quotes. As for the market as a whole, the correction, outlined in mid-April, is unlikely to be the beginning of a long-term downtrend. Kirill Kozyrkin, portfolio manager of the Criminal Code "Alfa Capital": - A good investment idea is to purchase securities of Sberbank. Their quotes will keep waiting for run depositary receipts, as well as secondary offering (SPO), in which planned to sell 7.58% stake in the bank. Fundamentally, Sberbank also looks good, constantly updating records in revenue and profitability. Look attractive and paper "Raspadskaya". Interest in them stirs the fact that the 80-percent stake in the company eyeing Gennady Timchenko. In addition, the comparative odds "Raspadskaya" is pretty cheap compared to other representatives of the sector of metallurgy and mining. Its shares are very much behind the rise in prices for coking coal. With high probability the deal to sell the package will be held at a price higher than today's quote. And no doubt about the potential opportunities of the new owner "Raspadskaya" to lobby for its interests. The third idea is an investment in equities NCSP. The port is a leader in handling of Russian wheat, and therefore introduced last year embargo on exports worsened investor sentiment towards these shares. During the year they lost in the price of more than 35%. The decision to lift the embargo, is expected in September, adopted in May. And it's a great signal for the formation of the positions in the shares of the company. Mikhail Frolov, senior analyst of "North Capital": - Shares of "BRIC" support strong fundamentals and the expectation of positive effects from the deal with "Silvinit." By the end of the second quarter of the union of the leading Russian producers of potash fertilizers is complete. This will give a noticeable effect for themselves in the form of doubling the business, as well as synergies at the operational and logistical levels, and for shareholders in the form of the combined market capitalization growth "BRIC" and increase the liquidity of the shares. An additional positive factor is the recovery in demand and prices for potash market. Thus, in the middle of May "Uralkali" announced increasing the value of their products to consumers in Brazil up to $ 550-560 per ton. We believe that in the medium term, the paper companies can achieve marks in the vicinity of 260-270 rubles. It is interesting to look shares "Polyus Gold" on the back of high prices of yellow metal (according to our estimates, the cost will soon be close to $ 1,600 per troy ounce) and intentions company to double production, making 2014 the first of more than 3 million ounces of gold per year. In addition, the CEO and major shareholder, "the Pole" Mikhail Prokhorov announced the conclusion before the end of this year's merger of his company with any of the global gold miners. We believe that the paper "Polyus Gold" have a chance to overcome the mark of 2,000 rubles. Sergei Smirnov, the analyst "Ankorinvest": - Attractive look action "Raspadskaya". Information about the probable change of the main owners was too negatively perceived by the market. As a result, "Raspadskaya" trading with the expected ratio of capitalization to EBITDA up to 2012 at 4.3, which is only 3% higher than the coefficient of "Belon", although it less liquid securities. The "Raspadskaya" has good prospects for organic growth. Add that coal prices are now at record levels, and elimination of consequences of the accident the company is according to plan. One of the short-term drivers of growth of quotations could start the second lava pit in an emergency - this event is expected at the end of the second quarter. As other investment ideas can be identified investments in shares of Sberbank. In early July, the bank starts the depository receipts, which would expand the range of potential investors in its securities and to increase their liquidity. I note that global macro-economic indicators in recent times worse. The greatest concern is the emerging slowdown in the U.S. economy. Pulse, which gave her the start of the second cycle program of quantitative easing, fades, and even before the completion of the program. Inflation risks, by contrast, are amplified. Slower economic growth with inflation is harmful to the stock markets. Alexander Krapivka, senior portfolio manager of the Criminal Code, "WA Renaissance": - In June - July metallurgists stock market will look better. From the beginning, these securities have fallen by 10-15% amid falling steel prices and fears of slowing Chinese economy. However, in mid-May, the cost of steel products has stabilized, which is due, including the seasonal increase in demand from the construction sector. In addition, the industry now shares are trading at multiples to the world analogues, and it's not entirely fair, given the greater the vertical integration of Russian companies. We distinguish, first of all, paper Evraz Group, which can grow on the background of rising prices for rebar and on the news of the sale of shares in the "Raspadskaya". Rising gold prices could support the capitalization of "Severstal". In turn, the paper of "Rostelecom" will support their inclusion in the estimated expected basket index MSCI - apparently, it happens immediately after the merger of old and new releases. In addition, before the year is planned to be part of the shares in the form of GDR, which also increases the attractiveness to investors of the operator. The new strategy of "Rostelecom" in 2011-2015 left a favorable impression. Particularly pleased with the promise to consider increasing the share of profits allocated to dividends, up to 40%. Maxim Chernega, analyst "Octane-broker": - Bidders may play a likely decline of European currencies by selling the September futures contract on the euro - the ruble (EuU1) or the euro - dollar (EDU1). The first operation can be diluted with the purchase of the September futures on the dollar - ruble (SiU1), because on the one hand, there is every reason to believe that Russia's currency weakened on the other - have accumulated quite a large gap in the dynamics of the ruble against the dollar and the euro therefore invited to bet on their elimination. If we talk about the stock market, the probability of growth or decline in June - July should recognize the same area. In the event of the fall of any advice to give hard, but if the market is still expected to grow, it should look better than other ordinary shares of "Surgutneftegaz", whose leadership has finally completed the epic with an investment in the Hungarian MOL. The summer period is traditionally not the best period in terms of trading activity, and, apparently, this summer is no exception, unless the history of the Greek debt does not come to any final, most likely, sad.