Who among mortgage holders was the winner

After going through a crisis, the bankers realized that we have to somehow live on and build a business. And what if no credits his foundation? Slowly but surely, they began again to return the mortgage programs that reduce the size of the down payment, interest rate, enter the special conditions. But, of course, not everything at once. When Sberbank almost the first in the market began to lower the rate, private bankers have complained that the state bank using its advantage of access to cheap resources and that they just do not can. However, a little grumbling and complaining to the bitter fate of Russian private banker, they obediently lowered rates. "The stakes were falling in 2010, and a major cause of reduction of rates is competition among banks," - says the analyst of "Investkafe" Anton Safonov. Now they have reached the bottom, as we are told. According to the monitoring of the Central Bank, the rate of mortgage loans issued during the month, to April 1, 2011 decreased to a minimum - 12.5%. Unfortunately, the data of the Central Bank for loans since the beginning of the month are available only since 2009, so this is a record only the last two years. Bankers argue that if we take into account the income and price per square meter, but now the perfect time to expand the living space with a mortgage almost in the modern history of Russia. "Such low bank rates never met with such a low value of the property. And while we now have quite a stable economic situation ", - chairman of the board of directors of the collection agency" Center YUSB "Alexander Fedorov. The last train departing train. The first time the current dubbed the "golden" for mortgage holders Sberbank CEO German Gref. As if in confirmation of this thesis in the bank even reduced mortgage rates to 8%. Another active player in the state - VTB24 - offered a mortgage with the mother's money as a down payment. A similar program launched CB "MIA" and Baltinvestbank. Private banks are also trying to lure all the available forces of the borrowers. "Interest rates have reached the level before the crisis and are on average 11-13% per annum", - said Irina Gradovich, head of retail credit products PSB. Those who can, the banks are ready to meet. "In terms of requirements for borrowers and as a consequence, the availability of mortgages for different segments of customers, you can say about expanding the range of mortgage customers. Banks learned how to evaluate different types of customers - and salaried employees, and business owners - and consider the incomes of other family members. And helped this crisis, showing no credit borrowers have become problematic, and who cope with temporary financial difficulties, "- said the expert. But the "mortgage paradise" has been limited by time. Gref warned of potential borrowers to avoid pulling with the decision because the sale will not last forever. Sberbank, according to Gref, is going to raise rates soon after the increase in refinancing (May 3, the regulator raised it from 8 to 8.25% - "F."). So, with all his might in a hurry to jump into the last car of a departing train, hinting borrowers bankers. Some people seem to believe them. This is eloquently other statistics of the Bank of Russia: for the first three months of 2011 the total amount of loans was 2-fold increase over the same period in 2010. At the same time every month, it increased. In January, banks issued mortgages amounting to 19.6 billion rubles in February - to 53.5 billion rubles in March - more than 100 billion rubles. Pre-crisis level of course we have not yet reached. Thus, if in 2008 the volume of mortgage loans amounted to about 656 billion rubles-lei, in 2009 this figure fell somewhere in the 5-fold, said Anton Safonov. While some banks are already feeling good, even compared to the crisis. According to the director of the department of development and promotion of products Ros-Eurobank Helena Kaverin, they have already reached the pre-crisis volume of issuance. In some lending institutions have issued more than ever before. "We used the crisis as an opportunity. Resumed issuing mortgages in mid-2009 to-date technology that has provided us a monthly growth of bank withdrawals by mid-2010 to 2 times compared to the level of monthly withdrawals in early 2008, ie before the crisis, "- said the head of the project" Mortgage " Bank "Bank" Finance "," Tatiana Schwab. However, this is only a few examples on the market. While the average loan size is only 1.4 million rubles, while in the pre-crisis 2008, he was equal to 1.9 million rubles. However, for new buildings, according to agency "Miel", the average amount of credit is attracted 3 million rubles. "Today, the share of mortgage transactions in the total purchase and sale of apartments in new buildings in Moscow and Moscow region averages 37%," - noted in the agency. Was there a boy? If everything is so rosy, why do not all need to run to the housing bank for a loan? On the one hand, of course, incomes are still not so high as to enable to take out loans. "When viewed in terms of availability of mortgages, then, as before the crisis, and now, mortgages are still available for a limited number of citizens", - says Schwab. In addition, few banks now refuse a down payment on the mortgage, as in the first half of 2008: after all, the crisis was not in vain. "We estimate the customer is more rigid, required an initial payment of 15-20% (though again there were a few programs with a down payment 0%, but it only shares and loans for short term). In general, I'd be appreciated mortgages less affordable compared to pre-crisis years. First of all, due to the high initial payments "- says Vice-President of First Republic Bank, Dmitry Orlov. On the other hand, the crisis has not passed in vain and for borrowers. Experts of W-City community research recollect how banks behave in a crisis when the state has allocated more than one trillion rubles for their support. Meanwhile, prime borrowers are not only partake of this bounty, but also came under the powerful post-crisis bank pressure. "It is the banks, but not bankrupt employers, hammered nails into the coffin with the epitaph" the Russian mortgage ", depriving the latter of illusion, it would seem, most recently, successful managers, merchants and rentiers", - says the analyst of Olga Artemenko. As a result of the collapse of the hopes of waiting at least 30% of wealthy borrowers mortgage holders who did not receive a timely and competent crisis restrukturizatsionnyh programs, under pressure from leading banks were forced to sell their haste the collateral real estate for a song, according to the company W-City community research. Those who decided on the mortgage, both then and now, must understand that they are playing with fire, says the analyst. In addition, in fact, and the ratio "rate / cost of real estate" is not the "golden", but at least the "silver" if not "bronze". The best time according to most respondents "F." experts, was at the end of 2007 - the first half of 2008. "The most attractive terms on mortgage loans and real estate prices have been" pre-crisis "period, the bulk of mortgage loans occur in the first half of 2008", - says head of banking products Rus-Bank Herman Belous. Why do experts so pessimistic? According to the monitoring of the Central Bank, the weighted average rate on loans from the beginning of the year has decreased by 1 April 2008 to 12.5% ​​(April 1, 2011, according to CB, the average rate fell to only 12.5% ​​for loans since the beginning of the month; on loans from the beginning of the year, it was on this date 12.6% - "F."). The experts say that credit for the property in late 2007 and was available at a rate of 11.7% per annum in rubles, and the rate of 10% in dollars. And although the income of the population were below the prices were lower. According to the monitoring company, "Inkom" cost per square meter on the secondary market in 2007 amounted to 138.1 thousand rubles-lei, in 2008 - 188.8 thousand rubles. By the end of 2007 the figure was estimated at 149.6 thousand (5.5% versus the end of 2006). In addition, in 2007 - the first half of 2008, banks were more loyal to clients, experts add one more argument in favor of the availability of mortgages were higher this time than now. However, in the company of "Miel" believe that the most profitable period of buying an apartment in Moscow with the assistance of a mortgage loan can be called the end of 2005 - early 2006. "During this period, bank mortgage products have found their consumers, and prices were still quite low, because in 2006 the offer price for new buildings in Moscow grew by more than 2-fold (from 68.5 rubles / sq. M. up to 140 thousand rubles / sq. m) and the secondary market - 66% (from 76.5 rubles / sq. m. to 126.9 thousand rub-ley/kv. m), "- noted in the the agency. At this average rate was then still very low: about 16.5% per annum for loans in rubles and 11.7% per annum for loans in dollars when buying a flat on the secondary market, CEO says, "Analytical Consulting Center" Miel "Vladislav Lutsk. According to the director of the Center for Economic Research MUIF Sergei Moiseyev, with the current mortgage rates and home prices attractive mortgage may be called for more regional than capital. "There is a real mechanism for solving the housing problems" - he said. By the way, real estate brokers believe that now benefits, such as buying real estate with a mortgage in the suburbs, where prices are lower than in 2008. Thus, according to the agency, "Inkom", in 2008, the average cost per "square" in the Moscow region was 79.9 thousand rubles. In April 2011 the same meter was estimated to amount to 74 thousand rubles. At the same time near Moscow secondary housing increases in value. Thus, in February and March, its value increased by 0.7 and 1.5% respectively. Uncertain future. While Gref and frightening fact that the banks will raise rates soon, opinions diverge on this point. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, for example, recently promised that in the near future, the mortgage loan will cost the citizens of 5-6% per annum. At least one third of the "Russian families (now about 12%) should be able to purchase a house using their own or borrowed funds as early as 2015," - he said in April. This, he said, would be achieved, inter alia, "at the expense of housing loans, social grants, maternity capital." However, this is not the first such promise premier. Does it come true? As stated recently head of the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML) Alexander Semenyaka to lower mortgage rates, it is necessary to reduce inflation, reduce banking margins and maintain competition in the market. In 2011, in his opinion, the rates could fall another 1%. However, Sergei Moiseyev strongly doubted it. In his opinion, the rate on your mortgage is likely to grow. Banks will not now take such high risks, the expert believes. By the end of the year mortgage rates could rise by 0.5%, says Moses. A similar view is shared by other experts. According to them, take a mortgage is now also due to the constantly rising prices. "Reducing the volume of construction in Moscow and has already started the supply gap can be predictive of higher prices. In the stabilization of economic situation, taking into account factors such as currency fluctuations, reducing the overall supply of new buildings, and to activate the market of new mortgages, the gradual reduction of interest rates on loans, higher construction costs and general inflation in the future prices will gradually rise. At year-end prices in the market can make buildings up to 8-10%, "- said General Director of" Miel New "Maria Litinetskaya. In the words of the head of mortgage lending company, "Inkom Real Estate" by Leo Pletselmana if the apartment is sold with no investment purpose, then the best time to deal with the mortgage will be a period when you make a decision about buying a home. "Waiting unlikely to reduce prices and rates for several years - a very questionable benefit in comparison with the prospect now to improve their living conditions", - he concluded. A comparison of the conditions of buying property in the capital with a mortgage over the past five years Years mortgage rates,% * Cost per square meter on the secondary market in Moscow, th Rs. The average wage in the capital, thousands of rubles. Inflation in Russia,% 2007 14.83 138.1 23.20 11.9 2008 13.35 188.8 29.20 13.3 2009 13.34 173.8 32.95 8.8 2010 13.81 187, 0 40.50 8.8 2011 12.90 45.00 ** 197.8 *** 8.2 **** * The average rate on mortgage loans issued since the beginning of the year. ** Rate in April 2011. *** Prices at the end of May. **** Weather expert agency "Reuters" at the end of the year. Source: Corporation "Inkom", the Bank of Russia, the Moscow government, Rosstat estimates "F." The average bid price of new buildings, thousand rubles / sq. m. Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-11 Moscow 149.500 190.100 186.3 196.8 193.4 Moscow region 55.957 69.673 63.5 62.3 60.8 Source: Company "Miel"