That threatens the world financial system

Talk about the second wave of crisis are unfounded, for the reason that imbalances in the global economy, which are considered the main causes of the crisis of 2007-2009, by the crisis were not resolved. Therefore, from a financial cataclysm the world came not only cleansed of past problems, but on the contrary, with acute, chronic diseases. The thriving national debt becomes a significant problem not only in Greece but in a much more stable countries, and yet no one offered an acceptable solution to this problem. Everyone understands that developing nations now claim to greater than before, the role of a global division of labor due to the accelerated reduction of the separation of the developed countries. However, relatively painless way to a "redistribution of roles" also does not exist. Nevertheless, Russian and foreign economists have tried to answer the questions of "F". what the major risks threatening the global financial system and financial institutions that do, it is impossible to assess the degree of danger. "Talking about changing the situation does not have to" Nikolai Sidorov, chairman of Absolut Bank in the coming years may experience a number of global issues. Among them: a) the risk of further quantitative easing of monetary policy the U.S. that will lead to further depreciation of the dollar and, consequently, to increased cost of natural resources, and b) the risk of maintaining political and economic unity of the EU against the background of problems in Greece, Spain and Portugal. As a consequence, may weaken or even rejection of the euro, which could lead to destabilization of trade flows and structural changes in national economies, and c) the risk of overheating Chinese economy, which today is the current driver of global growth. As a consequence, it can lead to reduced demand for natural resources and a further slowdown in economic growth worldwide, and d) the risk of continuation of U.S. foreign policy to destabilize the political situation in the regions with large reserves of hydrocarbon resources in order to shift attention from the problems in national economy, and e) risks to diversify foreign exchange reserves of China, the expansion of Chinese companies on foreign markets and the role of the yuan as a global reserve currency. Risks are always present in the global political and economic situation, so to speak of a fundamental change in the situation to occur. The level of uncertainty compared to the year 2009 - now just changing set of risks and scenarios that should be considered when making management decisions and planning, investments, and, of course, need to be conservative. "No end in sight to the problems of" Oleg Mihasenko, president of BCS Financial Group: The biggest threat to world peace - this is 2012 on the Mayan calendar, when all must come to an end. But seriously speaking, we can expect financial turmoil due to the fact that it is not clear the global economy. Go bad U.S. data, no end in sight to the problems of debt in the euro area, and we can not say exactly when these problems will end. Many investors hedged against the risks, when shifted from stocks to commodities and commodity assets such as gold, whose prices have reached historic highs. There may also be of interest shares of retail companies. "There are questions, no answers," Basil Zablocki, chairman of the bank "Opening": The financial risks are the consequence of unresolved social problems. On the one hand, the era of globalization has increased the interdependence of the various social groups, countries, economies. The degree of this dependence is much higher than generally assumed. Corporate governance model in the business of corporations in crisis proved to be insufficiently effective, with a similar model of governance at the global level, cross-country is not there. This means that multiple processes are unmanageable from a systems perspective. At the same time there are a number of fairly simple, basic questions that have no answers. And even if there are answers, there are no mechanisms aimed at the recognition of the real situation, because of inefficient political systems. For example, initially mistaken idea that housing may be available to everyone, was transformed into a global real estate bubble. In many ways, populist message was set multiplier of abuse and lack of proper regulation in the financial sector. This has caused very great damage to all countries, triggering a global recession. Another example - the debt crisis in European countries. In essence, the question boils down to a willingness of one group of ordinary residents of the EU to admit personal responsibility for the financial wellbeing of the other part of the European Union. In the absence of agreement on the balance of consumption and saving by households, divided by the initial phase of integration, it is a very difficult task. What is the amount of debt can not afford the largest economy in the world - America? What is the real debt burden per capita with the need to ensure that the aging of the population? What level of income inequality in society is socially safe? And who's responsibility to find answers to these questions? In my opinion, this is the major global social risks that entail risks of financial. Socio-economic structure of the world complicates the US-in this sense, the uncertainty in matters of risk also increases. Understanding what is happening - a key success factor in dealing with risks. It is important to look at the situation broadly, to break away from routine, to analyze what is happening around - in other industries in other countries, do not be afraid to delve and to understand, monitor key trends. Japanese School of Management puts it, summarizing the principle - the rule of "Genci genbutsu" - watch and see. "Reducing the debt will be painful," Michael Kyuntsi, executive vice-pre-zi-dent of the bank Lombard Odier: The main risks are associated today with a very highly indebted western economies. The need for deleveraging will be long and painful that may entail a number of erroneous actions of politicians who are trying to counteract the process of deleveraging in the economy. Invest wisely. The only way to somehow reduce uncertainty - to acquire cheap assets with a high margin of safety (high risk premium). "We need to grow into fat," Anton Rakhmanov, managing director of the Criminal Code, "Troika Dialog": The world financial system is now threatened by a range of risks associated with the fact that the world economy is undergoing a lot of qualitative and quantitative changes. We are at a stage of transition, which will come in the end - is unknown, so the main problem is that the problems facing the world economy risks are very hard to predict. In addition, the strong reaction of monetary authorities around the world has changed the balance in world finance. While it is clear only that the engine of growth in the coming decade will not be developed and emerging economies. The risk is that if developing economies are able to cope with this problem, which they consciously or unconsciously have assumed? Most dynamic emerging economies - China's economy, and here the risk is that it is unknown how this growth is stable. Will China provide development at a speed of at least 8-9% per year? Calculations show that China requires at least 8% growth per year to secure a normal social development, to support the combined rate of urbanization, etc. In addition, we do not know how this increase is real and how can you believe the figures provided by authorities in China. Do not threaten China's economy overheating and imbalance? If you go back to the developed economies, the United States, here the question arises to what extent the observed recovery of the U.S. economy is simply a short-term consequence of the huge infusion of money into the system. Drivers of the U.S. economy has traditionally been small and medium businesses, as well as a consumer, and, according to the May data on the increase in unemployment, they feel not very good. Finally, the question remains: how the EU system is viable and we need to do to make it viable? And this does not include such issues as global food security or energy deficit, which the world faces. Financial institutions in this situation is one solution - integration, you need to "grow into fat." We are entering a period of low income, which will run only the "economy of scale." "Breaking the well-established positions," Arsen Aivazov, CEO of IK "Finam": First Source risks - this is a problem for decades kopivshayasya so-called payments imbalances. Centers of consumption in developed countries, and the centers of production - in developing countries. The result is a high cumulative burden of developed countries with significantly higher financial strength of the developing world. But this situation is not yet compensated for in the field of international political relations, and it ignores the social conditions of life in both developed and developing countries. In addition, together with the development of society are growing social commitments. In parallel, along with population growth, increasing purchasing power in emerging markets, the risks are growing scarcity of resources. Here are the main problem. In the last century, these problems were solved at the international level, through the wars. Now this practice is extremely risky due to the emergence of new types of weapons. Bid to resolve the pressing conflicts is on the functioning of "world government." This structure is not formalized, but it manifests itself, for example, in the actions, decisions such forums as the "Big Twenty", meetings G8, the BRIC countries, etc. In general, the solution of these problems will be a gradual leveling of life in both developed and developing countries, re-industrialization of the West and Russia, while strengthening the financial and consumer segments of the developing countries, including Russia. This baseline scenario. Risks associated with what is happening for breaking long-standing position of the century developed countries, and these processes can cause the growth of nationalist and extremist tendencies in society. The growing role of state planning and distribution required to maintain the growing obligations of the state in resource-limited settings, and already encounter encounters opposition from business. Financial markets do not "go" directly to the political trend or just after the long-term global economic changes. In terms of medium term interest rates for the consolidation of the banking sector, a further rise in prices of the commodity market, increasing investment activity in the high technology, infrastructure, energy and transport. In the long term uncertainty is high due to many factors analysis. In the medium term the situation is, however, clear. In the next few quarters, that is, to elections in Russia, France, USA, China, possible new round of economic recovery in the recession of inflation indicators. "We have not learned any lessons from the crisis," Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank: As the major risk factors most relevant to the financial market in the next couple of years, I would definitely highlighted the debt problems of the U.S. and Europe. It's not a surprise that this problem can not be eliminated without any light and painless solutions. The process of recovery will be long and complex. Also of note is the imbalances in economic development worldwide. And, of course, social tensions in some countries and regions will necessarily have an effect. Definitely, the financial world is becoming more and more risky. And it's partly because, in practice, we, unfortunately, has not learned any lessons from the crisis of 2008. Transactions with borrowed funds are still popular, and governments use incentives to support the economy. I would say even more: we should expect the next wave of economic downturn. In the current economic instability is necessary to maintain high cash reserves, to conduct stress tests to their positions in the five standard deviations, and remember to always reduce risk.