"Because of the crisis did not come, the recession is over» *

"While the ministry in its long-term calculations provides just such a wave. We learned from the crisis of 2008-2009. lesson: the development of the Russian economy is and will remain in the foreseeable future fluctuations of the global economic cycle. The main factor determining the decline and subsequent recovery - is changing the external economic environment. But crises do not like each other. Forthcoming will be associated with a fall in export earnings, and with a system of internal risks. Universal Compression. If you look at the structure of GDP growth, it is evident: the crisis has led to an increase in net exports, while the pre-crisis growth was associated with its negative dynamics. In other words, the economy was extremely sensitive to the situation with exports and the distribution of export revenues, which occur within the country. Of course, the relationship is not so simple. Played a huge role outflows, squeezing a bank loan. We got a powerful compression of investment demand, stocks, that determined the depth of the recession and also the decrease in final consumption. However, by the end of 2009 the situation began to straighten out - to the recovery, which was associated with increased exports, added some internal benchmarks. In the IV quarter, taking into account seasonal and calendar factors, we received a small increase in retail trade following the increase in real incomes. With investment demand situation is worse, although you can argue that in late 2009 and construction, and investment rather complex showed a positive trend. Against growth. An important question is how much recovery can turn into a steady climb, and when that happens? Ministry of proceeds from the understanding of the moderately favorable external conjuncture, when the price of Urals oil will be in the range of $ 65-70 per barrel (lower limit of most forecasts for 2010-2011 indicates that the price level at least $ 75 per barrel). In this case, the conditions for the transition to growth, especially in the second half of 2010 and in 2011, will be the country's economy quite favorable. One of the key constraints, along with the contraction of public spending, is the preservation of stagnation in bank lending. Conditions at the rate loans, as we know, are unfavorable. Over the past year, almost did not grow the size of loans, while in real terms it has shrunk by nearly 9%. If we remove the revaluation of currencies, the compression is even higher. Tendency to fall nominal volumes of the loan portfolio continued in January 2010. I think at least half of it I will be an important point, limiting the recovery in the industry. Perhaps the significant credit growth starts in the II half. In general, we expect credit growth to be at best 15-18%, and probably closer to the lower boundary. The end of the recession. What are the prospects for the economy over the next three years? In 2010, our main prediction is moderately conservative and moderately optimistic: GDP growth at 3-3.5%. Observing the trend of recovery in the second half of last year, we might expect GDP growth of about 6%. But life is more complicated simple extrapolations. There are many risks that would deter a revival of the consumer, and especially investment demand. On some I have already pointed out, the stagnation of bank credit, insolvency significant part of industrial enterprises, not related to exports, the high unemployment rate - currently about 9.1% of the economically active population. Since the public demand in a sufficiently tight fiscal policy will stagnate, then enter the high growth rate in 2010-2011 is unlikely. Rather not expect that in 2012-2013 we can pass to the rate of 5% or more per year. Of the crisis we have not yet emerged, but the recession has ended. GDP grows the second consecutive quarter. Of course, the transition to sustainable economic growth will not be easy, despite the fact that the potential to accelerate, especially in 2012-2014, is big enough. Due to an increase in demand investitsitsionnogo more than 10% recovery in consumer demand in this period, the economy is well placed to reach the level of GDP at 5.5-6% per year. Correction of the ruble is inevitable? The crisis led to the fact that due to import compression, we have already in 2009 came to a positive current account balance. Although, if it were not for the devaluation, it was a risk to come to a negative balance. But practice shows that there is no balance, which we could not "proest." Stock, resulting from the devaluation, we have completely "eaten." The course has exceeded pre-crisis levels in real terms, and in the next 3 years to strengthen its range - from 18 to 20%. With such a dynamic is obvious that this is a very serious challenge to the competitiveness of all industries. We are seeing a revival in consumer imports, and industrial rehabilitation and revive investment. Therefore, at the turn of 2013-2014's surplus may well turn back to zero. In this regard, within 5-6 years, I think, inevitable correction of the new exchange rate, if no fundamental changes in the efficiency of the economy and the influx of foreign direct investment. Although the Russian economy was among the hardest hit by the global financial crisis has all the prerequisites for Russia to once again become one of the most dynamic global markets. The key challenge here is not associated with an increase in GDP or other indicators, and the need to change the quality of this growth, the quality of our competitiveness. The crisis has once again shown that a significant portion of our industry uncompetitive. So we have a maximum of 3-4 years to conduct a thorough modernization of the key enterprises, increase productivity by 1.5-2 times. Then we can talk about sustainable economic development and the new look of the Russian economy. " * Compiled by Olga SHEVEL following speech at the XIII International Russian automotive forum organized by the Adam Smith Conferences