How to "Gazprom" will work on catastrophes and revolutions

The last two years to "Gazprom" is not too lucky. In 2009-2010, the main granary of Russia's budget was faced with the most massive decline in demand for its entire history. And the reason is not only a crisis: the share of the concern for and already reduced European market declined in 2009 by 2 percentage points up to 23%, as consumers prefer to buy gas at lower prices from suppliers in North Africa and the Middle East. Those EU countries simply overwhelmed liquefied natural gas (LNG), which led to the collapse of prices in the spot market. It did not help either partially recovery in demand in 2010, nor the assignment of "Gazprom" for the price. Scope of supply monopolies in Europe for the last year amounted to only 139 billion cubic meters - less than even in the crisis year 2009. Against this background, not too soothing mantra, which in one form or another regularly heard from the lips of the top managers of "Gazprom": for Europe - the future. A reasonable question: why, for the continued liberalization of the growth rates of 15% annually offers good prospects for concern in the domestic market, while European consumers could easily replace the developing Asian countries? Home is worse. Prior to January 1, 2015 domestic gas prices for industrial consumers will increase by 15% annually. This occurs within the "transition" towards equal profitability with European prices "blue fuel" that will significantly increase the profitability of Russian gas producers. Bank of Moscow analyst calculated that an additional revenue of the Group during the next three years in the domestic market of about $ 25 billion, which more than offset an increase in severance tax on gas (about $ 6 billion). It would seem that it is time to "Gazprom" to stop expensive to build export pipelines to Europe and to fully switch to Russia. But first, then who will earn the country foreign currency, and secondly, no space or for independent producers, the monopoly will include its administrative resources, or for most of "Gazprom". As the efficiency of the Russian economy and rising domestic demand will show a very low-key dynamic. "Producers will likely have to make concessions as commitments on minimum sample gas and the price - the analyst IFD" Capital "Vitaly Kryukov. - Independent players will be very actively to increase the production and sale of gas at more competitive terms than "Gazprom". Canopy offers significant anticipated. " In particular, the government requires oil companies to recycle rather than burn in flares, 95% of associated gas. But the main driving force weakening the monopoly of concern will be the "Novatek", including the largest shareholder of which is Gennady Timchenko, a well-known for his ties to the highest echelons of power: its share in production over the next five years to grow from 6 to 10% - almost double! In contrast, under the state plan development of the sector, the share of "Gazprom" 2030 will be reduced from the current 78 to 70%. "In the long term, about half of domestic demand can be met by independent companies," - says Vitaly Kryukov. With China also ambush. On the one hand, there is a reliable resource base for Russian gas supplies to Asian countries in the form of the recently acquired "Gazprom" Kovykta, located in the Irkutsk region, as well as having a portfolio of Chayanda field in Yakutia. That's just Russia and China can not even agree on the price of supplies. "The pipeline - capital-intensive enterprise, with an estimated it will spend about $ 15 billion - said a senior analyst" Arbat Capital »Vitaly Gromadin. - Meanwhile, China continues to enjoy cheap gas pipeline from Central Asia and tanker deliveries of liquefied natural gas, Gazprom's not perceiving the principle of equal to the European trend. At the same time, China does not agree even on the point of long-term contract for example European, which agrees to buy about 85% of specified amounts. " While China does not face a shortage of gas to compete with supplies from Central Asia, Russia can hardly agrees Dmitry Alexandrov from "Uni." Overpayment for stability. But in recent months, the situation on the global gas market has changed dramatically. Political instability in the Middle East and North Africa forced to return to European customers for Russian gas. Disappeared major obstacle in the form of spot prices: for the first time in the last two years they have exceeded the contract price of "Gazprom" ($ 369 per thousand cubic meters, compared to $ 327 under contracts of concern in the first quarter). Events in Tunisia and Egypt quickly affected the civil war in Libya-tion, unrest in Algeria, Yemen, Syria, Oman and Bahrain. The whole region has become extremely unstable. This forces analysts to overestimate the risks of supply disruptions, even in Saudi Arabia. European countries, especially southern ones, are forced to seek more secure sources of supply in the short term. This gives the "Gazprom" new opportunities to strengthen its position in key markets - in Italy (44% of gas consumption provide the Middle East and North Africa), Turkey (31%), France (26%) and UK (9%) - in all of them in 2010, there was a reduction of Russian gas sales. Thus, the export companies in Turkey (the second largest market of "Gazprom" in foreign countries after Germany) decreased by 10% in Italy (number 3 market) fell by 31%. France and Britain were reduced to 3 and 7% respectively. According to analysts, "TKB Capital" to replace the export of LNG to Europe from countries affected by disturbances (provided that the supply of gas through pipelines from them remain the same), "Gazprom" could enter into additional contracts volume of 17 billion cubic meters per year in the short term and in the medium - to increase gas exports to Europe on long-term contracts by 12% to 156 billion cubic meters. "At an average price of $ 350 per thousand cubic meters (prediction of" Gazprom "in 2011), this will add to the treasury group an additional $ 6 billion annually," - Eugene Dyshlyuk estimated from the "TKB Capital." Diversification of fuel supply is a major goal of foreign policy the EU. No one in Europe does not want too dependent on "Gazprom". So far, the calculation was in two different regional groups of deliveries: Middle East and North Africa and Central Asia. However, each of these areas potentially problematic. At the same time North Africa was really problematic. For how long? NATO's intervention in the Libyan conflict has not led to any discernible effect. The situation, contrary to the assurances of NATO generals, a stalemate. Deputy Commander of the operation in Libya, Rear-Admiral Russell Harding told the news agency AFP, that in the last 24 hours, "the opponents move back and forth on the road between the towns of Brega and Adzhdabiya." But whoever got the existing oil and gas infrastructure, it will be extremely vulnerable. And for the rebels, and forces loyal to Gaddafi's pipelines in the desert and sparsely populated areas would be most convenient target. The maximum win that can get "Gazprom" in this situation - the realization of its own pipeline project "South Stream" with a forecast of up to 63 billion cubic meters a year. Deliveries from it can completely replace the gas from Algeria, Libya and Egypt on the southern European markets. But optimism is premature, introduces a note of skepticism Vitaly Kryukov. "Libya has halted gas exports, but sooner or later it will be restored, - says the expert. - There may not be met and over-inflated market expectations about Japan. " Uncertain prospects. As a result of the March earthquake and subsequent tsunami, Japan has lost, and closed part of the nuclear facilities. The main burden for their replacement will be on the gas thermal power station, which usually provide a quarter of all electricity generation in the country. A similar situation was in the moments after the earthquake off nuclear power plant in previous years, but then the consequences were not comparable with what is happening in Fukushima. How big is the potential? Recently, the gas output in Japan were loaded only by 45%. "Gazprom", of course, could not pass up a chance for additional income. Monopoly tried to work from two sides. She tried to negotiate, first, an increase in the supply of LNG to Japan, with its only major project for liquefied natural gas, "Ca-Halin-2." Secondly, the redistribution of roles at E-world market: Europe rejects some of the LNG-meschaya for its pipeline gas, and the released amounts go to the Land of the Rising Sun. "I have great doubts about the necessity of such a swap deal - reflects Vitaly Gromadin. - In recent years occurred comfortable saturation of the gas market due to commissioning of new LNG projects (for the last five years of global LNG capacity doubled - "F."). Increased demand in Japan may provide other suppliers. " "While the country fully meets the additional demand for LNG deliveries through from Asian and Arab countries - agrees Vitaly Kryukov. - This year is expected to record the volume of supply of LNG to the world market. No wonder that, to increase deliveries to Japan were involved in the free power of the example in Brunei and Malaysia. Additional parties offer LNG Qatar and others. In the long term oversupply of gas will remain, although the "overhang" can become a little less. " In addition, Japan will aim to improve energy efficiency and increase the share of renewable sources of energy, so that expectations of strong growth in gas consumption by the country in the long term, inflated. There is a third way, as "Gazprom" can benefit from the Japanese disaster. Many countries, especially in Europe, under pressure from frightened people have decided to suspend implementation of its nuclear programs. The Bank of Moscow estimated that the annual export of Russian concern over the growth of the European gas generation (primarily in Germany, where nuclear power provides a quarter of total electricity consumption) can increase compared to 2010 by 7%. But not so obvious. "Global non-nuclear energy will not happen, because the real alternative to the ratio of cost / environmental mankind has not, - said a senior analyst," Grandis Capital "Dmitry Terekhov. - Although we can expect mass decommissioning of nuclear reactors of the first generation. But this process will affect only the developed nations - in developing countries are already worth more than new units. " Deputy Director General for Science, Institute of Energy Strategy Alexei Gromov added that the greatest failure in Fukushima impact on nuclear power in those countries where, on the one hand, the strong position of "green" and opponents of nuclear power in principle, but on the other hand, the authorities the maximum extent possible to public opinion. "So a European power, which has recently had great difficulty overcame public resistance building new nuclear power stations, today runs the risk of freezing in general, most new projects in this area - predicts Alexei Gromov. - Where are we? To increase the supply of natural gas to Europe. " A "Gazprom" only that it should be.