Russian companies' optimism faded away

For the first two months of 2011 the indicator of industrial production increased only 1.7 points, while the opportunistic index, "Finance." - By 7.6 points. The situation was much worse than expected real sector enterprises. According to the survey market research Centre (ZKI) HSE, the level of optimism of domestic companies came to nothing. Price hit. Business confidence index turned negative again, broke the emerging trend has been to recover. Level of capacity utilization in industry in February also decreased slightly - from 61 to 60%. The main reason for this negativity was unjustified rise in prices of industrial products, which took place over the past few months. During January and February it was 5.5%. And the leaders have a monopoly responsible for the formation of most of the cost of the real sector. Thus, inflation in the mining industry in just two months was 10.1%, and in the manufacture and distribution of electricity, gas and water - 9.9%. As a result, in January - February the rate of increase of costs in the industry peaked during the entire period of post-crisis recovery. Manufacturing sector tried to partially mitigate the jump costs. According to surveys ZKI, the proportion of businesses increased their selling prices, was almost two times lower than that of companies increase costs (22% vs. 42%). However, price growth in manufacturing was still significant: 3% for the first two months of the year. This was parallel to unwind the spiral of inflation expectations. For example, surveys show that the increase selling prices in the next 3-4 months 27% of companies plan to the real sector - the worst figure for the last three years. Pullback in demand. The response to such a pronounced inflation was negative. According to the results of business surveys the Economic Policy Institute named Yegor Gaidar (IEP), satisfaction of demand in the industry fell in February to its lowest in seven months level. The index of orders for this background was reduced by 1.3 points to 84. The negative situation was observed in the investment field. In the short term price increases had a positive impact on the finances of the real sector. Indicator the proportion of businesses in 'good' and 'normal' financial condition has increased over two months to 14 points to 238.4. However, the decline of confidence in the prospects of expansion of demand is not the best way affected the willingness of companies to invest: a component that reflects fixed investment fell by 21 points and became the main negative factor in the dynamics of KIF. Decreased and the indicator of bank lending to the economy - by 7.9 points. Shrinking demand in the consumer sector was not as pronounced. Here the components of CIF moved in different directions. If real disposable incomes fell in January - February, up 3.4 points, the turnover of retail trade, by contrast, rose by 2.3 points. In this population's deposits in banks increased by 9.1 points. In general, the total contribution rates of the domestic consumer demand in the opportunistic index, "Finance." For the first two months of the year was negative. Oil - only joy. The only marked a positive change in the conjunctural situation was the price dynamics in the global energy markets. Due to the unstable situation in North Africa, the average price of Urals crude oil rose in February to $ 101.3 per barrel compared to $ 72.7 a year earlier and $ 78.2 on average in the last year. As a result, Russia has received export earnings surprise. However, here is not so simple. The main recipient of payoff - the state - rightly taken a fairly conservative position on the spending of funds become available. In nominal terms, according to the Economic Expert Group, non-interest expenses of the federal budget in January - February, there were even 2% lower than in the corresponding period last year. Forecasts and estimates. Thus, market situation in recent months gives enough reason for concern. If not for the rise in prices on world markets energy commodities, the economy is now fully experiencing a negative impact of the negative dynamics of domestic demand. However, while prices are rising, driven by Russia, which means that in the coming months we expect to preserve the status quo. Exporters would be "swimming" in additional revenue, but on the whole, industrial production will increase the minimum rate because of the severe situation in the majority of market sectors serving the domestic market. Components opportunistic index, "Finance.", January 1995 = 100 Indices Values ​​on 03/01/11, 01/01/11 at points Values, click Edit in 2 months, points to the contribution of KIF, paragraphs Indicators supply (production) Throughput Transport 151.0 146.2 4.8 0.53 Investment in fixed assets 218.8 239.8 -21.0 -2.31 Unemployment (reciprocal) 105.0 103.7 + 1.3 0.13 The share of enterprises in 'good' and 'normal' financial condition 238.4 224.4 14.0 1.40 index portfolio of orders 84.0 85.3 -1.3 -0.04 Contribution to CIF - 0.29 Indicators of demand for retail trade turnover 268.2 265.9 2.3 0.25 Real disposable money income 193.4 196.8 -3.4 -0.37 Credit investments in economy 878.9 886 8 -7.9 -0.87 Deposits of banks in 1085.8 1076.7 9.1 1.00 Oil Prices Urals 606,6 535,9 +70,7 +7,88 contribution to the CIF 7 89 A market index of "Finance." 409.3 401.7 7.6 Index of Industrial Production 143.3 141.6 1.7 Sources: IE RAS, EW. All components of the index subject to seasonal adjustment, and the index of industrial production - and also a calendar adjustment.